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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #36,781
  • Edited 8:27am Sep 6, 2013 8:03am | Edited 8:27am
Hi All,

New trader here. Experienced with equities and now trying forex! Lets see how far I can go without blowing the account up.

1. USD/JPY down, H4 showing waning strength and momentum to the upside along with bearish divergence. Bear flag @ smaller TF?
2. EUR/USD up, H4 showing bullish divergence.
3. S&P500 futures locked @ resistance trendline, need to confirm with the equity markets. Bearish megaphone?

Green pips for all! Trade safe, don't be greedy, and remember... Value is a function of PRICE and TIME. Be patient.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130906 USDJPY H4.jpg Size: 280 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130906 EURUSD H4.jpg Size: 271 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130906 S&P500 H4.jpg Size: 263 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130906 USDJPY M1 Bear Flag.jpg Size: 249 KB
  • #36,782
  • Edited 9:05am Sep 6, 2013 8:54am | Edited 9:05am
Update:

1. USD/JPY M1 bear flag invalidated (larger flag at play?). Additional downside momentum. Target @ 98.5.
2. S&P500 down. Confirmed movement of UJ. Will downside momentum prevail? I expect support @ 1595 area from "lower unemployment rate".
3. Just in... Putin says Russia will continue arms sales to Syria, even if US strikes (CNBC). Expect more fear/volatility with such headline and looming event risks.
  • #36,783
  • Sep 6, 2013 9:03am Sep 6, 2013 9:03am
Quoting forex_fairy
OMG all yen pairs are falling!! The yen suddenly went strong. In like a second it dropped like wow i think maybe a 100 pips on all pairs. I was short in eurjpy another usdjpy on demo and was short on the 1st one for a couple of hours kept on going near 130.65 which was my entry pt but kept on rising upwards and my usdjpy was 99.2 short tp at 99.1 so that was in the red since 2nd of sept and in like 1 min or no in like wow a couple of seconds all jpy pairs went bearish dropping a ton of pips and i tp on both. Honestly this is nuts i kept on closing...
Risk off Yen carry trades? Flight to cash.
  • #36,784
  • Sep 6, 2013 9:19am Sep 6, 2013 9:19am
I belive recent usd/jpy drop will not hold. I see suport in the 98,00- 98,50 zone. I aspect the pair to bounce once again to 100 at the begining of the next week.
  • #36,785
  • Sep 6, 2013 9:44am Sep 6, 2013 9:44am
http://i.imgur.com/gkyEw84.png

Potential ab=cd forming?completion at 102.3
  • #36,786
  • Sep 6, 2013 10:10am Sep 6, 2013 10:10am
Quoting allex82
I belive recent usd/jpy drop will not hold. I see suport in the 98,00- 98,50 zone. I aspect the pair to bounce once again to 100 at the begining of the next week.
It dropped before FOMC member speaks... its strange. I think when he will speake it will go down more.
  • #36,787
  • Sep 6, 2013 10:39am Sep 6, 2013 10:39am
Quoting Baggi
Thanks for the charts, TraderinSD. Could you please explain this, "Entry on PIN" Does PIN mean the wick of the candle?

PIN = Pin Bar or Candle ( same ) .. Entered on the PIN Candle on Higher relative volume ( Volume = Activity in Forex ). Also, this was a Support area which is differernt from a Demand Area. The second entry was based on Supply Demand style of trading. Many times you will see confluence between Supply Demand and Support Resistance. This is were the confusion comes in, those who think they are the same thing. They can be in the same area ( this is a good thing, confluence ) but they are not the same thing.

hope this helps

TSD
  • #36,788
  • Sep 6, 2013 10:48am Sep 6, 2013 10:48am
Quoting ForexChrist
Seriously, what is wrong with this market?!? What does it take to push this pair up? Should US throw a couple of bombs on Japan? Oh no right, after that everybody will buy Yen as save heaven!!!! Very ridiculous market and some people should shame themselves to do what they do!

Volatility = Opportunity.

I assume you have long positions? Trading in these markets can be difficult. Personally I find more opportunity when the market is moving. Trending or Ranging .. As long as it is moving, it present opportunity.

I guess you could call that shameless

Good trading to you

TSD
  • #36,789
  • Sep 6, 2013 10:55am Sep 6, 2013 10:55am
Quoting andy0323
Hi All, New trader here. Experienced with equities and now trying forex! Lets see how far I can go without blowing the account up. 1. USD/JPY down, H4 showing waning strength and momentum to the upside along with bearish divergence. Bear flag @ smaller TF? 2. EUR/USD up, H4 showing bullish divergence. 3. S&P500 futures locked @ resistance trendline, need to confirm with the equity markets. Bearish megaphone? Green pips for all! Trade safe, don't be greedy, and remember... Value is a function of PRICE and TIME. Be patient. {image} {image} {image}...

Welcome

Nice charts you have there. I too have traded the other side = Indexes only.. ES, NQ, YM, QM.. Have not beed back much of late..Forex presenting plenty of opportunity. I will say I do miss those great day in the NQ and ES.

Good trading to ya !!

TSD
  • #36,790
  • Sep 6, 2013 11:18am Sep 6, 2013 11:18am
Quoting iahmedz
{quote} It dropped before FOMC member speaks... its strange. I think when he will speake it will go down more.
Confluence of Ichimoku cloud daily and H4 at 98,50. I didn't realize, but IMO it was a good chance to go long. Look the rejection now. Till Monday is the rejection point.
  • #36,791
  • Sep 6, 2013 11:39am Sep 6, 2013 11:39am
What a gift, getting long at today's lows.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #36,792
  • Sep 6, 2013 12:09pm Sep 6, 2013 12:09pm
is it going down till 97.xx???or getting up back 100.xx?any pro trader know?
  • #36,793
  • Sep 6, 2013 2:43pm Sep 6, 2013 2:43pm
My current view, FWIW (not much), take it or leave it.


http://s19.postimg.org/lkyswrgwz/USDJPY1.png
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #36,794
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:28pm Sep 6, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
My current view, FWIW (not much), take it or leave it. {image}

Hi BW I saw that retest too. Well done. Great chart. It is not uncommon for price to test the breakout line...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #36,795
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:49pm Sep 6, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
My current view, FWIW (not much), take it or leave it. {image}
Congratulations if you have taken this long at 98.50. I didn't realized about that retest, and it was Iichimoku... a lot of things...
I was afraid about Friday, as I do not like,but the figure is perfect. I'm not sure about the goal about 100 +, but till now is a perfect long.
  • #36,796
  • Sep 6, 2013 6:20pm Sep 6, 2013 6:20pm
Thanks guys, you are too kind LOL.
We shall see though; of course there are no guarantees in this game; a move back below the broken trend line would of course say (shout) that the situation has changed.
This represents a good R/R though; because if the $ is at the beginning of a new leg up, we could see way past 100 in the fullness of time.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #36,797
  • Sep 6, 2013 6:37pm Sep 6, 2013 6:37pm
I learned as a kid that people love to see others in pain. Obviously not our loved ones, but if someone stumbles and falls, it's funny, as long as they aren't seriously hurt. We laugh when we see other people injured. I don't know why we do this, but we do.

Behold!

And prepare to have a nice laugh at my expense.
http://www.hotstockmarket.com/conten...00/height/1000


Last night I was watching the USDJPY and I saw there was this nice little channel that had formed. The top yellow line is the 0.0 Fib line, which isn't perfect, but my lines never are.

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/conten...00/height/1000

When it broke down through support of the channel, it broke hard and fast, so I entered quickly. I had been watching for hours and things had been moving slowly, so when the break happened, I thought I'd capitalize off of the downward momentum and sudden action.

I don't know how well you can see it on the above picture, but I entered right around 99.650. I was pretty quickly in negative numbers, as you can see the bounce back there and it was getting close to bedtime.

Because of the break to the downside, I was pretty confident we would be going down, so I set my stop at 99.850, which would be a $200.00 loss, but the potential gains were enormous.



http://www.hotstockmarket.com/conten...00/height/1000


This third picture tells the rest of the story. Do you see that white line? I didn't put that white line on the chart, I don't even know how it got there, but I drew a black line so you could maybe see where that candle topped out at.

That's right, 99.85, exactly my stop. Not 99.84, or 99.86, but 99.85. Stopped me out.

When I woke up this morning and checked to see if things had shaken out as they had, it was trading in the 98.50 area.Right down by where that low wick hits the 38.2 fib line.

I went from making over $1,000.00 to losing $200.00 all because it came all the way back up to my stop, right before plummeting.

It didn't even hit my stop 30 minutes before, or a few hours before (It had all night!).

No. To really increase the pain, it hit my stop and then cratered, just to be a middle finger to me.

Enjoy!
  • #36,798
  • Sep 7, 2013 11:57am Sep 7, 2013 11:57am
On Forex Trader they were Bullish with long positions but when it got whacked they went to USD under intraday pressure lol..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #36,799
  • Sep 8, 2013 7:31am Sep 8, 2013 7:31am
Long USD/JPY @ 99,09
SL 98,09
TP 100,09

Price aggressively broke out of obvious triangle that is highly visible on daily/H4 (if you zoom out a bit) and established heavy support on the top triangle trendline.

R/R in terms of $ is 1:1 but I see an bull move much more probable imo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyh4.png Size: 16 KB
  • #36,800
  • Sep 8, 2013 8:19am Sep 8, 2013 8:19am
Weekly target at 86.315

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyweekly.png Size: 77 KB
Keep it simple and trade with the trend
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