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Trading Made Simple

  • #24,641
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:03am Sep 5, 2013 2:03am
Quoting TheScorpS
Back testing Every night or every other night , I spend them in back testing Price Action and TMS for H1 , now what I do is as follows 1- I open mt4 as usual , go back in time where I left, open time and calendar website for viewing the day of the week back tested 2- Draw support and resistance lines and zones, check for the day back tested ( Trending , Sideway Range ie Channel , or Consolidation ) and make a plan, hit F12 and forward bay by bar 3- If a trade shows up, put entry , stop loss, and target order, forward until TP is hit , exit manually...
Backtesting:

Do you know these?

1) You can create a chart and saved that as a template for backtesting using the MT4 Strategy Tester. Just save that chart with its temple name "tester". When you start the strategy tester, it will automatically load that chart with the template. Just be careful and rename the saved tester.tpl when you want to retain different charts of different currency pair for backtesting.

2) If you are simply scrolling back chart and doing manual scrolling using the F12 key, you can also use your mouse instead of that F12 key.



Add the Step-by=Step button to your toolbar. See below.

Hope this helps.
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #24,642
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:08am Sep 5, 2013 2:08am
Quoting TheScorpS
Back testing Every night or every other night , I spend them in back testing Price Action and TMS for H1 , now what I do is as follows 1- I open mt4 as usual , go back in time where I left, open time and calendar website for viewing the day of the week back tested 2- Draw support and resistance lines and zones, check for the day back tested ( Trending , Sideway Range ie Channel , or Consolidation ) and make a plan, hit F12 and forward bay by bar 3- If a trade shows up, put entry , stop loss, and target order, forward until TP is hit , exit manually...
Question:

1) What are you backtesting with TMS? H1 or H4?

2) Are your backtesting to verify the TDI Entry and Exit rules?

3) Are you backtesting to determine the frequency and occurrences of the TMS setups?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #24,643
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:09am Sep 5, 2013 2:09am
EJ H4:

Anyone activated your Plan B for this pair?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #24,644
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:14am Sep 5, 2013 2:14am
Quoting tankokjian
hi guys, i have actually 2 question to ask. 1) the forcast on the economic calender is actually based on the market sentiments or what ? lets say the forecast , is 0.1 positive how do economic calender determine this value ? does anyone actually uses this numbers for intraday trading ? 2) leverage , isnt it the same as lot sizes. eg i play 1 lot of 100:1 leverage isnt it the same as i play 0.5 lots of 200:1 leverage ?
for your first question, the forecast on the economic calendar is based on an average of expectations... Everybody has his own sentiment as to what the economy of a given country is like, how is it doing. Smart money moves first and moves fast when such data is released, meaning that if we have US GDP as 2,5% expected, the actual data comes out around that much as well (let's say 2,6%), market will drop despite data being close to the 2,5% expected, because nothing will have come as a surprise to investors. This happens because a reaction to a GDP of ~2,5% is already factored in the current price days and sometimes weeks before the actual release. So what happens is that smart money moves out of the market, taking their profit and dropping the price.

Now let's say, for the sake of argument, that the release is higher or lower than what everybody is expecting... Then price would move the way it should, respectively rallying or falling. It would also move by a lot, because smart money will try to react ASAP. Which is also the reason why such releases are too dangerous to trade on an intraday basis. You and I do not have the same information resource that the "big boys" do. Granted, we get to read about economic data way before the average Joe does in the newspaper the next day, but we're still too late... And just as we're shorting, smart money is liquidating positions and taking profit. So we end up selling at the bottom.

The smartest thing to do is to stay away from the market at least 15 minutes before (as market consolidates in a very tight range just before a release) and at least 15 minutes after a release. Wait for market to choose its direction, and then look for a signal.

A good read is High Probability Trading, by Marcel Link. He covers all that and it's easier to understand.

PS: Hope I didnt mess up at any point, I'm still very sleepy...
  • #24,645
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:28am Sep 5, 2013 2:28am
Hi Lads. Im backtesting this strategy. I opened yesterday eur/usd short position. I took profit. risk reward 1:2

What do you think lads? Emmanuel doing goood job here .

Thanks for comments
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  • #24,646
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:14am Sep 5, 2013 3:14am
Be aware Of GOLD


A strong Supp is 1385 !


See if breaks, or not! if breaks, have the potential to go to 1350 , if not then pulls back to 1400 even more !
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  • #24,647
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:18am Sep 5, 2013 3:18am
Quoting emmanuel7788
UJ 5 Sep Tokyo+5hours, Now the current H4 candle showing bullish and breaking out of the consolidation area. If you are not in the market, you are very late. this current H4 candle is only in it 2nd hour and has 2+ hours till its close. What shall you do if you are looking for an entry?
UJ just POP ...
I BE my entry and see how it will run.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #24,648
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:18am Sep 5, 2013 3:18am
A/U faced a Mini - Strong Supp ! ( YELLOW LINE )


Look if breaks or not!


Then do as Before!
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  • #24,649
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:20am Sep 5, 2013 3:20am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Folks, This one I got it wrong. AU made it to 0.9715... that 100% of its weekly average range. Time to get out! {image} Top performer this week, great start in Sep.

AU now BE, let'e see how deep this reversal leg will go.
JSL set to 30pips.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #24,650
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:24am Sep 5, 2013 3:24am
Quoting Bangokar
Hi Lads. Im backtesting this strategy. I opened yesterday eur/usd short position. I took profit. risk reward 1:2 What do you think lads? Emmanuel doing goood job here . Thanks for comments {image}
Nice trade!
What's your strategy? You don't have the TDI on your chart and that's kinda essential for the TMS. Do you trade on stochastics and HA candles patterns alone?
  • #24,651
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:26am Sep 5, 2013 3:26am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} UJ just POP ... I BE my entry and see how it will run.
Have UJ too, +40 pips now, and rising! Bought it on the H4 yesterday.
  • #24,652
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:44am Sep 5, 2013 3:44am
Quoting Dabbeljoe
{quote} Nice trade! What's your strategy? You don't have the TDI on your chart and that's kinda essential for the TMS. Do you trade on stochastics and HA candles patterns alone?

Hi Dabbeljoe.there is TDI indicator , im trading only with direction of trend. if weekly pivot is againts me i wont take the trade. best trades are if the candle closing below the weekly pivot. often than you can take profit on weekly support 1or 2

here is the example
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  • #24,653
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:54am Sep 5, 2013 3:54am
Quoting TheScorpS
Back testing Every night or every other night , I spend them in back testing Price Action and TMS for H1 , now what I do is as follows 1- I open mt4 as usual , go back in time where I left, open time and calendar website for viewing the day of the week back tested 2- Draw support and resistance lines and zones, check for the day back tested ( Trending , Sideway Range ie Channel , or Consolidation ) and make a plan, hit F12 and forward bay by bar 3- If a trade shows up, put entry , stop loss, and target order, forward until TP is hit , exit manually...
Hi Scorps,
This is basically what i do, its very basic / simple, but very effective i think, keep it simple... I'd like to know if anyone has any better / more effective way of back testing?

Emmanuel suggests the MT4 strategy tester which I havent tried yet, but i may give that a go as well..
UK1
  • #24,654
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:55am Sep 5, 2013 3:55am
Be aware of E/A ( YELLOW LINE )
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  • #24,655
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:55am Sep 5, 2013 3:55am
Quoting Bangokar
{quote} Hi Dabbeljoe.there is TDI indicator , im trading only with direction of trend. if weekly pivot is againts me i wont take the trade. best trades are if the candle closing below the weekly pivot. often than you can take profit on weekly support 1or 2 here is the example {image}
super ... I LIKE!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #24,656
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:00am Sep 5, 2013 4:00am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} super ... I LIKE!

Thanks emmanuel. How is your trading this week?
  • #24,657
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:07am Sep 5, 2013 4:07am
Quoting Bangokar
{quote} Hi Dabbeljoe.there is TDI indicator , im trading only with direction of trend. if weekly pivot is againts me i wont take the trade. best trades are if the candle closing below the weekly pivot. often than you can take profit on weekly support 1or 2 here is the example {image}
Hey, I thought your TDI was stochastics, because you made some lines white. :-)
Looked better now, nice job!
  • #24,658
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:26am Sep 5, 2013 4:26am
did A/U found support at the weekly fib of 127%?
Come tomorrow, I'll wake up new
  • #24,659
  • Sep 5, 2013 6:27am Sep 5, 2013 6:27am
thank so much for your written response. how do tell if the price has actually factored in the expected results , for example we have an overnight rate CAD of 1% yesterday, what about the next overnight rate ? there are so many economic events to look out for , as a trade do we have to exercise our own discreetion as to if current price is not overshot or just an illusion ?


Quoting WDays
{quote} for your first question, the forecast on the economic calendar is based on an average of expectations... Everybody has his own sentiment as to what the economy of a given country is like, how is it doing. Smart money moves first and moves fast when such data is released, meaning that if we have US GDP as 2,5% expected, the actual data comes out around that much as well (let's say 2,6%), market will drop despite data being close to the 2,5% expected, because nothing will have come as a surprise to investors. This happens because a reaction...
  • #24,660
  • Sep 5, 2013 6:28am Sep 5, 2013 6:28am
Damnit I had a pending buy above the last 4H G/U candle and then chickened out because of TDI(which still has not crossed). Had I kept the PO it would be up 30 pips now with a ~40 pip SL, now its too far to enter.

My other trade is long E/J 4H at 131.895 which is down 5 pips atm.

Does anyone have any tips on how to enter before waiting til candle close? I entered E/J with a Pending order at the top of the pinbar (FXCM showed a pinbar, MT4 did not but figured it was close enough).

I'm aware I can find a retracement of the 4H candle but it doesn't always retrace, besides that I'm leaving work in 30 mins and I won't be able to eye the chart to grab it.
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