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AUD/USD

  • #63,681
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:30pm Sep 2, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting Gwan
betting rate cut anyone?
2.75% would be nice , for me at least
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #63,682
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:34pm Sep 2, 2013 9:34pm
High volume in recent reversal.. high volume right now..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie.png Size: 60 KB
  • #63,683
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:35pm Sep 2, 2013 9:35pm
The relatively small move up from 0.8900 was nothing surprising nor out of the ordinary. The pair has been through a 1300 pip correction (price adjustment) since mid-April. Couple that with surprisingly better than expected news out of Asia to start the week and a temporary relief in Syria tension provides the market with the needed catalyst for an already overdue pullback. If anything, the fact that the pullback fails to be sustained and wasn't greater may indicate AUD/USD is still overvalued. Now this is just fundamental and price action analysis.

From a technical analysis point of view (see attached chart that I posted last month also), we are hanging between a horizontal support (yellow line at 0.9390) and a downward trendline (dotted red line). Unless fundamentals change some time in the coming months, I suspect price will test the downward trendline somewhere around 0.8500 at some point in the near future (<1 year). The question is, will the downtrend continue now or will it test the horizontal lines before proceeding downward? Again, a change in fundamentals or a move above yellow lines changes the downward sentiment.

It's really that simple (to me).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auw.png Size: 74 KB
  • #63,684
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:48pm Sep 2, 2013 9:48pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
The relatively small move up from 0.8900 was nothing surprising nor out of the ordinary. The pair has been through a 1300 pip correction (price adjustment) since mid-April. Couple that with surprisingly better than expected news out of Asia to start the week and a temporary relief in Syria tension provides the market with the needed catalyst for an already overdue pullback. If anything, the fact that the pullback fails to be sustained and wasn't greater may indicate AUD/USD is still overvalued. Now this is just fundamental and price action analysis....
Also keep in mind that the move up over the last 30 hours was made on thin volume due to Labor Day Holiday in the USA.
  • #63,685
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:50pm Sep 2, 2013 9:50pm
Look like .897 is strong enough to hold.. anyone ?
  • #63,686
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:51pm Sep 2, 2013 9:51pm
Quoting mikijk3
High volume in recent reversal.. high volume right now.. {image}



Nice chart. Pretty sick volume to say the least
  • #63,687
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:58pm Sep 2, 2013 9:58pm
Good Morning.

Got in long on eur/aud today @1.4690 SL-1.4600 TP-1.483x+
Banking on the Interest rate that AUD/USD may test support again, but its a risky bet on something I don't know may happen on not.

Oh well, keeping fingers crossed, 1hours and 32mins for the Aussie show to begin!
"be content with your pay" - John the Baptist
  • #63,688
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:19pm Sep 2, 2013 10:19pm
any one expecting rate cut today ?
Mohan
  • #63,689
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:21pm Sep 2, 2013 10:21pm
BTW,

If you've noticed, since 2012, they haven't increased interest rate. It's always decreased or the same.
So I guess its either reduce interest by -0.25% or it may remain unchanged. But surely not increase.

"be content with your pay" - John the Baptist
  • #63,690
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:24pm Sep 2, 2013 10:24pm
Good Morning!
Today's S/R MT4 Templates

EURO
AUDUSD
EURJPY

Will post other pairs later
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post6935578
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #63,691
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:27pm Sep 2, 2013 10:27pm
Quoting dormin
BTW, If you've noticed, since 2012, they haven't increased interest rate. It's always decreased or the same. So I guess its either reduce interest by -0.25% or it may remain unchanged. But surely not increase.
we are almost bottom out , i don't think RBA will cut rate in next 3 - 6 month , possible hike from Feb 2014
Mohan
  • #63,692
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:29pm Sep 2, 2013 10:29pm
Quoting dormin
BTW, If you've noticed, since 2012, they haven't increased interest rate. It's always decreased or the same. So I guess its either reduce interest by -0.25% or it may remain unchanged. But surely not increase.
Not just that... they last cut the rate less than a month ago (August 6th).
  • #63,693
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:42pm Sep 2, 2013 10:42pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Not just that... they last cut the rate less than a month ago (August 6th).
i think the strategy is to decrease, then they let the market do what it wants until the currency is strengthening again, the they decrease again.
prepare for worst & expect the best
  • #63,694
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:03pm Sep 2, 2013 11:03pm
my view for Aussie
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ifeaueX.png Size: 19 KB
  • #63,695
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:12pm Sep 2, 2013 11:12pm
Quoting dormin
BTW, If you've noticed, since 2012, they haven't increased interest rate. It's always decreased or the same. So I guess its either reduce interest by -0.25% or it may remain unchanged. But surely not increase.
I am with you on that.................

But I like to expect the unexpected.................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #63,696
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:15pm Sep 2, 2013 11:15pm
Quoting Grandhis
my view for Aussie {image}
The weekly is currently coming down and the Daily is heavy.....we are near a bottom for now, but it could stay here for Days...................IMO
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #63,697
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:17pm Sep 2, 2013 11:17pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} I am with you on that................. But I like to expect the unexpected.................
I expect that from an alien
  • #63,698
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:17pm Sep 2, 2013 11:17pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} The weekly is currently coming down and the Daily is heavy.....we are near a bottom for now, but it could stay here for Days...................IMO
Also H4 is Topping with the H1 dropping currently.................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #63,699
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:20pm Sep 2, 2013 11:20pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} I expect that from an alien
We are always watching you................
Attached Image
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #63,700
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:26pm Sep 2, 2013 11:26pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} We are always watching you................ {image}
Nice. You draw those? They are cool.
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