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USD/CAD

  • #4,081
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:43am Sep 2, 2013 8:43am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Good day to you, pipcenturion Thank you for your post. Normally a negative correlation between USD/CAD and oil. . .
Thanks a million sir. I just needed to point out that I said CAD correlates positively with crude. That also means USDCAD correlates NEGATIVELY with crude since the CAD in the USDCAD pair is the counter currency. So, we are both saying the same thing but expressing it a little differently.
TT, thou art such a great guy.
Enjoy your day sir.
  • #4,082
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:56am Sep 2, 2013 8:56am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Thanks a million sir. I just needed to point out that I said CAD correlates positively with crude. That also means USDCAD correlates NEGATIVELY with crude since the CAD in the USDCAD pair is the counter currency. So, we are both saying the same thing but expressing it a little differently. TT, thou art such a great guy. Enjoy your day sir.
Mr.P -

Exactly. We are saying the same thing..

Well - let her get a move-on then - the higher we go without me having an itchy finger, the better to build a possible longer term trade for profits. Thank you for the kind words. The feeling is mutual and I do wish you prosperity to the max.

Trade well and take care of yourself.

Later.
  • #4,083
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:16am Sep 2, 2013 10:16am
I have my limit shorts at 1.0650 1.070
1.07 is key resistance level and also fib 127 extension.
In simple economical terms higher oil prices means stronger Canadian dollar.Oil being biggest export for Canada primarily to US.
I think if Obama attacks Syria we could see steep price hike on oil and drop in UC.So far no attack....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.weekly.png Size: 48 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,084
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:26am Sep 2, 2013 10:26am
Davit,

I actually still have a long at just below 1.0500 looking for 1.0650(tremendous resistence if you look at monthly chart). Probably take 1/2 off.
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #4,085
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:26am Sep 2, 2013 10:26am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Thanks a million sir. I just needed to point out that I said CAD correlates positively with crude. That also means USDCAD correlates NEGATIVELY with crude since the CAD in the USDCAD pair is the counter currency. So, we are both saying the same thing but expressing it a little differently. TT, thou art such a great guy. Enjoy your day sir.
Literally fuck all correlation between Oil and USDCAD.... Not sure where this idea has one from because a lot of people think it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD corr.png Size: 114 KB
  • #4,086
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:35am Sep 2, 2013 10:35am
S&P -ve correlation with usd/cad
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #4,087
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:38am Sep 2, 2013 10:38am
Quoting pips29
S&P -ve correlation with usd/cad
barely...
  • #4,088
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:39am Sep 2, 2013 10:39am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Literally fuck all correlation between Oil and USDCAD.... Not sure where this idea has one from because a lot of people think it. {image}

It makes sense that correlation effects The Lonnie because Oil is number 1 export product for Canada directly contributing Canadian economy and its currency worth.

May I ask a huge favor?
Could you run your software correlation of China growth vs Australian dollar.It would be interesting to see how that shows up on your graph.
Thank you
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,089
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:40am Sep 2, 2013 10:40am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} barely...

75%
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #4,090
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:43am Sep 2, 2013 10:43am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Literally fuck all correlation between Oil and USDCAD.... Not sure where this idea has one from because a lot of people think it. {image}
Sir,
I speak what I know. Maybe you can check the low that USDCAD put in before this session's up move to see if I truly am talking sensibly.
  • #4,091
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:44am Sep 2, 2013 10:44am
Quoting Davit
{quote} It makes sense that correlation effects The Lonnie because Oil is number 1 export product for Canada directly contributing Canadian economy and its currency worth. May I ask a huge favor? Could you run your software correlation of China growth vs Australian dollar.It would be interesting to see how that shows up on your graph. Thank you
Yeah I understand the reason, but it doesn't work in practice. never has.

Also, because of the calculation method, running a numeric calculation doesn't quite work, Does work visually though.

CNY GDP y/y in white, AUD in purple. Quarterly due to GDP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD vs CNY GDP.png Size: 93 KB
  • #4,092
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:56am Sep 2, 2013 10:56am
Quoting alex4xes
{quote} I have too longed it as I was waiting for this LVL to play it. Have scaled out few & left few open & kept SL at its initial place so that if it is hit I come out BE, & will scale in more if the momentum persist. Its all about LVL & PA into those LVL. I still have my target in mind but at this PA & knowing price doesn't go in straight line, I am assuming that it will play a range bound play for coming few days between 1.6500 - 300 - 200, before shooting for my targets. All I have to do now is to wait n watch for PA to dictate when to scale...
GBPCAD update ....

Still going well but scaled out a little & watching PA closely, troublesome area ahead.....expecting range to develop. And a small note about correlation, its better to understand it, but never easy to take trade only based on it. Several times a year, a month, a week, a day or even a session this correlations are broken. Its better to make decisions on pure technical or fundamental (if u are fundamentalist) & take correlation as added odd in your favor. Just sharing my experience, not an advice. Always follow what works for you.

Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pips update.jpg Size: 27 KB
  • #4,093
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:57am Sep 2, 2013 10:57am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Yeah I understand the reason, but it doesn't work in practice. never has. Also, because of the calculation method, running a numeric calculation doesn't quite work, Does work visually though. CNY GDP y/y in white, AUD in purple. Quarterly due to GDP {image}
Sir,
can I advice that you re-run the correlation graph for usdcad and crude with the quotes to 4 digits after the decimal. Then lets see the weekly, daily and 1 hour chart.
Thanks sir.
  • #4,094
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:58am Sep 2, 2013 10:58am
There is a strong correlation between crude oil prices vs the Loonie.
Can we all agree that looking at this graph its obvious both move in unison.

Jeremy I have no idea how your software works.Perhaps its giving false data?
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,095
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:07am Sep 2, 2013 11:07am
Quoting Davit
There is a strong correlation between crude oil prices vs the Loonie. Can we all agree that looking at this graph its obvious both move in unison. Jeremy I have no idea how your software works.Perhaps its giving false data? {image}
visual and mathematical correlation are completely different.
  • #4,096
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:09am Sep 2, 2013 11:09am
Quoting Davit
There is a strong correlation between crude oil prices vs the Loonie. Can we all agree that looking at this graph its obvious both move in unison. Jeremy I have no idea how your software works.Perhaps its giving false data? {image}
you are correct, Davit. Oil and u/cad inverse correlation
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #4,097
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:10am Sep 2, 2013 11:10am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Sir, can I advice that you re-run the correlation graph for usdcad and crude with the quotes to 4 digits after the decimal. Then lets see the weekly, daily and 1 hour chart. Thanks sir.
Here is (with 5 decimals -

a rolling 100 day correlation going back to 1983...

a 100 hourly rolling correlation looking at the past 2 months.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD hourly corr.png Size: 105 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD corr daily.png Size: 148 KB
  • #4,098
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:15am Sep 2, 2013 11:15am
Quoting Davit
There is a strong correlation between crude oil prices vs the Loonie. Can we all agree that looking at this graph its obvious both move in unison. Jeremy I have no idea how your software works.Perhaps its giving false data? {image}
Thanks a lot sir for taking time out to check the charts for yourself and show to the entire thread. I already pointed out where the likely error is in his chart if only he would make the corrections I suggested and the re-run the correlation between the market instruments.
Anyway, USDCAD has come into supply zone very much like I said in my first post to TT.
1.0553- 1.0581 (sell cluster)
There also is a bearish bat on daily tf with its point D within my sell cluster.
I expect some decent sell off until at least 1.0474
Happy trading everyone.
  • #4,099
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:21am Sep 2, 2013 11:21am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Here is (with 5 decimals - a rolling 100 day correlation going back to 1983... a 100 hourly rolling correlation looking at the past 2 months. {image} {image}

That is 2 months out of 12months so 10 months data missing....
Basically I get .7% correlation which to me is significant.
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,100
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:26am Sep 2, 2013 11:26am
Quoting Davit
{quote} That is 2 months out of 12months so 10 months data missing.... Basically I get .7% correlation which to me is significant. {image}
If you put a long enough time for the correlation, nearly everything correlates highly, I mean, the EURUSD correlation with Oil is .85 at some points which is higher than USDCAD.... explain that...

At that point the correlation becomes irrelevant...

but the correlation is correct, the platform is not wrong, I think it maybe your understanding of the mathematics behind correlations that makes you confused.

The correlation over the past 500 trading days (2 years) is absolutely 0, no statistical correlation whatsoever
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