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Sonic R. System

  • #58,061
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:51am Sep 2, 2013 8:51am
Quoting Lucy Furr
This is a Non PVSRA trade so no need to bother to read any further, just put me on ignore. Just using volume and a little common sense. usdjpy So we see uj is in a downtrend. Volume is increasing on each move lower, showing those big bad MM's are selling. They are looking for the weak hands to bail, and testing for where the 'real buyers", i.e those who we need to pay attention to! are going to show up. 1st green arrow is diminishing signs of sellers, but with a big red wrb down to new lows (quite obviously the biggest red bar since 23 August)....
Very nice.
Thanks Lucy!
  • #58,062
  • Sep 2, 2013 8:58am Sep 2, 2013 8:58am
Quoting figgsey
GBP/JPY Any ideas why the large gap up opening (Sunday PM)...?

It depends on when your retail broker opens - there can be a couple of hours difference between retail brokers. The inter-bank trading is already open and the Yen was already weak, so UJ + 30 or so retail-wise and cable also + ~10 after Obama decided to go for a vote on Syria, thus in line with Cameron so GJ + 40 to 70 depending on the broker....GJ after FO was a nice buy to start your week
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #58,063
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:10am Sep 2, 2013 9:10am
GBPJPY

I'm starting to short the GJ. First scout entered and waiting for the second one. For me GU are bears and it had a big pump today and UJ same. However, I will have caution because UJ broke the H4 wedge and it could go further.

I will add a second scout if price breaks my red line. Same if the price goes higher, I will enter more if I see a good opportunity.

Best, Tymedu.
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #58,064
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:11am Sep 2, 2013 9:11am
Every time when I want to find BETTER possibilities for trading from crosses I have some kind of confusing while do some calcualations in my mind.
Finally I decided to prepare the crib.

GREEN color - means the pair is going up (long/buy)
RED color - means the pair is going down (short/sell)

How to use it? For example:

If we can see that EU is going upbut AU is going down then cross of its - EA - should go up with more wider range then EU only.
Or, as Islander mentioned today, if GU going UP and UY is going the same way then may be better to trade long only GY.
Etc...

Attached Image


I hope somebody will find it useful
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #58,065
  • Sep 2, 2013 9:23am Sep 2, 2013 9:23am
Quoting Islander
Three Dragons KISS For this month I am simplifying my charts and posts. I will be basing my posts on a notional $1,000.00 account for a US based trader - so 50:1 max. Thus my entries will be for 1 mini contract and shown as 1, 2 or 3 (minis) as per my previous posts. Entries on my charts will be shown as a coloured arrow at the candle where entered and a tick of the opposite colour will be put on the candle where the trade was closed. The value of the trade will be shown in whole dollars which avoids any doubts over actual size, decimal points etc....
One thing before you go... Have a good un

Great work as ever
  • #58,066
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:04am Sep 2, 2013 10:04am
Quoting Lucy Furr
This is a Non PVSRA trade so no need to bother to read any further, just put me on ignore. Just using volume and a little common sense. usdjpy So we see uj is in a downtrend. Volume is increasing on each move lower, showing those big bad MM's are selling. They are looking for the weak hands to bail, and testing for where the 'real buyers", i.e those who we need to pay attention to! are going to show up. 1st green arrow is diminishing signs of sellers, but with a big red wrb down to new lows (quite obviously the biggest red bar since 23 August)....
Lucy clearly has knowledge that is useful even if presented in hindsight so I would urge readers to grit their teeth to get through the negative chatter and try to absorb the useful bits. Its a bit diffifcult to follow as the rant against TAH gets in the way. Firstly the M15 chart - Lucy points out the two WRB (Whole Range Bars) that question the seller dominance. They also hit at previous support level AND at a long term trend line (shown on H4 chart below). Enough for anyone to grab profits if scalping prior to a long weekend. An excellent lesson of volume use from Lucy - and not IMHO contrary to a PVSRA analysis. However using the same logic and looking at the same H4 chart since 10th July there has been a plethora of strong down bars with big volume; more than up bars. This suggests at least a modicum of downward pressure over the longer term whilst we range sideways in this latter holiday period. Remember the old addage about selling up in May and coming back in September....

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Onto M15 itself:

An element of shorts profit taking and then buyers took control in the Asian session on Wednesday enabling some fine scalping opportunities for those like Islander using three dragons and who were diligent enough to be at their screens throughout. Too risky for my taste and looking back few posted long trades, but a good few took profits Tymedu (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post6922293) also Max Pain and MSIS and not forgetting Sonic on EJ. You cannot argue with a trend, especially where volume is strong in the direction of the trend as here. Is there strong buying in the troughs though? Not really which questions the longer term direction. For now on thin volumes in a US holiday follow islanders example and enjoy the break whilst MM's whip the price around for their own benefit.

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Nearly forgot - lesson learnt - watch that M15 chart for those whole range bars with volume for a warning of direction change.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #58,067
  • Sep 2, 2013 10:32am Sep 2, 2013 10:32am
GBPUSD

Potential SHS in GU, price is doing a pattern in 4H (evening star) in the possible top of the second shoulder.

Of course, until the price doesn't break the neckline, this is all speculative. But the spot is quite interesting.
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #58,068
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:04am Sep 2, 2013 11:04am
EU: Closed for 181.5 pips over 7 trades or average of 25.85 pips/trade and waiting for any further signs of push-up to re-build.

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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #58,069
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:22am Sep 2, 2013 11:22am
The MMs have pushed the US dollar up above key SRs for more shorting. I've added more short scouts respectively for better average price.

UJ: 22 Eps Open
UCad: 12 Eps Open
UChf: 13 Eps Open

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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #58,070
  • Sep 2, 2013 11:37am Sep 2, 2013 11:37am
@ Revoli.....WRB = Wide Ranged Bar and NRB = Narrow Ranged Bar.

Check out some of HiddenGap's posts - he's a good exponent of WRB analysis - and the use of volumes too
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #58,071
  • Sep 2, 2013 12:05pm Sep 2, 2013 12:05pm
Updated some cross

EU http://wp.me/p3N6R9-p0
UC http://wp.me/p3N6R9-oT
500euroalgiorno.wordpress com
  • #58,072
  • Sep 2, 2013 2:40pm Sep 2, 2013 2:40pm
Quoting Islander
{quote} You are getting mixed up between Yen Crosses - EurJpy, GbpJpy etc where I prefer to not trade the cross UNLESS both pairs that make up the cross are moving in the same direction - their dragons are sloping the same way. So IF GbpUsd's 5m dragon was sloping upwards and UsdJpy's 5m dragon was also sloping upwards, then I would be buying GbpJpy as the cross would move "faster" / more than either of its individual constituents. In the current range-bound summer markets, I seldom bother looking at the crosses.
Thanx for explaining. I used the sync as a kind of confluence because otherwise entering on a 1m chart just because the dragons are aligned on one particular pair was not enough for me...
  • #58,073
  • Sep 2, 2013 3:48pm Sep 2, 2013 3:48pm
Quoting Islander
{quote} It depends on when your retail broker opens - there can be a couple of hours difference between retail brokers. The inter-bank trading is already open and the Yen was already weak, so UJ + 30 or so retail-wise and cable also + ~10 after Obama decided to go for a vote on Syria, thus in line with Cameron so GJ + 40 to 70 depending on the broker....GJ after FO was a nice buy to start your week
Thanks for this Capt.

Well for me ticks come through Sun 10 PM GMT. MM must implement an "algo" to set the price - I think they roll forward contracts, settle market closed orders first etc. Sunday infact causes problems for longer TFs because of the reduced ticks due to this. Only barm cakes trade Sunday night unless they have gap opening strategy which I don't.

Any suggestions (to forum) how Sunday ticks can be excluded from our most excellent Sonic indicators?
  • #58,074
  • Sep 2, 2013 5:57pm Sep 2, 2013 5:57pm
UJ: MM's push prices up in the post US session (easy for them during low volatility hours) to obtain more shorts at higher prices. I've added EP 23 near Key SR. If price breaks it, I've got a sell limit to trigger. UJ pair is a lot more aggressive than the UChf and UCad. Good to be on the lookout for other yen pairs.

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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #58,075
  • Edited 6:20pm Sep 2, 2013 6:09pm | Edited 6:20pm
Quoting qFish
UJ: MM's push prices up in the post US session (easy for them during low volatility hours) to obtain more shorts at higher prices. I've added EP 23 near Key SR. If price breaks it, I've got a sell limit to trigger. UJ pair is a lot more aggressive than the UChf and UCad. Good to be on the lookout for other yen pairs. {image}
UJ: H4 Analysis. Speculative outlook. Here, I identify the next possible support before retrace. I've added 3 more limit orders there.

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-qFish
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #58,076
  • Sep 2, 2013 6:20pm Sep 2, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting qFish
UJ: MM's push prices up in the post US session (easy for them during low volatility hours) to obtain more shorts at higher prices. I've added EP 23 near Key SR. If price breaks it, I've got a sell limit to trigger. UJ pair is a lot more aggressive than the UChf and UCad. Good to be on the lookout for other yen pairs. {image}
UJ: Ep 24 triggered.
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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #58,077
  • Sep 2, 2013 7:25pm Sep 2, 2013 7:25pm
AJ Short Trade: Entered Scout shorts #1-2, PVSRA qualified on M15 and M1. The MMs have been pushing the YEN pairs back up. Is this knee jerk reaction to plans for economic stimulus in Japan? Or is this opportunistic hiking of the price because the YEN will be getting stronger and now is a perfect excuse to ram the price up again to load up on longer term shorts? My bet is the latter. Anyway, from here forward I will look for more opportunities to add shorts.
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  • #58,078
  • Sep 2, 2013 7:31pm Sep 2, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} UJ Short Trade: Added short Scouts #4-5. Gap up provided great Commando Scout insertion opportunity, and I made another entry after price dropped and then was pushed back up by the MMs. No TP set yet. {image}
UJ Short Trade: Added short Scouts #6-8 as the MMs have been pushing up the price. You can see there has been high activity at the tops of this currrent push up and the prior push up. This is PVSRA indicating the MMs are in fact bears. In all likelihood, these pushes up of the YEN pairs is nothing more than a sham by bear MMs, an opportunistic run up of the price while everybody thinks stimulus in Japan equates to a weak YEN. By pushing up the price of YEN pairs, the bear MMs have suckered in longs to give them the liquidity for their shorting.
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  • #58,079
  • Sep 2, 2013 7:42pm Sep 2, 2013 7:42pm
EJ Comment:

This could still go higher, but PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears that encouraged in longs to provide liquidity for shorting at ever higher prices again! Great deception by the MMs, but that is what they do.
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  • #58,080
  • Sep 2, 2013 7:57pm Sep 2, 2013 7:57pm
GU:

The bear MMs might finally go for a run for profits this week or next.
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