MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
- #830,962
- Sep 1, 2013 7:38am Sep 1, 2013 7:38am
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,654 Posts
{quote} {quote} Thank you for the feedbacks.. a nice FX diversion away from the miserable Sunday morning here..You're showing good fundie skills & great maturity for a 17 year old dipping you toes into this cesspool after 3 years..
That being said, I am assuming you trades are much shorter time span from what you had shown in your posts so far.. however, just in case you're positioned in accord with your L/T views, & if we also assume all present & future assumptions being equal, I hope you have contingency plans for my annotated scenario...
I see the edited graphs and see that you've predicted a move higher like in 2009 before coming back to mean, now if you look a little to the side of that it goes far below the interest rate differential, so why won't that happen in your opinion.
and regarding in 2016, if you look back at my first post it says "and unless in crisis mode (2008/9 and 2011) the EUR doesn't diverge from the pure fundamental value,"
These are the times it diverges. So regarding your comment about black swans, it is entirely the opposite case. The EUR will trade those levels (1.15 etc) unless there is a black swan even that means it doesn't. The past 5-6 yrs have been ZIRP and most traders don't respect the importantance of interest rates, but if we go into a tightening cycle expect moves like in 2001-1007, but obviously the other way.
Also you mention the Eur hasn't closed a yearly below 1.30 since 2005. What on earth is the relevance of this, yearly closes don't matter - what makes where the EUR trades on Dec 31st vs Jan 1st important.
To summarize, the EUR will track lower in (if we assume historical divergences) the coming years, and only black swan events can prevent this.
- #830,963
- Edited 8:18am Sep 1, 2013 7:57am | Edited 8:18am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Hello,Mr.Market | 1,806 Posts
A chart helps those who can read it.
- #830,965
- Sep 1, 2013 8:27am Sep 1, 2013 8:27am
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Ordinary Members | 10,684 Posts
{quote} i was at a mcdonalds in germany recently, and there was a sign saying they would gladly accept dollars but they quoted €/$= 1.40.
Mohan 
- #830,966
- Sep 1, 2013 8:39am Sep 1, 2013 8:39am
- | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,871 Posts
{quote} {quote} Thank you for the feedbacks.. a nice FX diversion away from the miserable Sunday morning here..
- #830,968
- Sep 1, 2013 9:09am Sep 1, 2013 9:09am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Half in the Bag | 17,827 Posts
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
- #830,969
- Sep 1, 2013 9:17am Sep 1, 2013 9:17am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: To pip or not to pip... | 1,030 Posts
Taigen Profit This Month:
na
- #830,973
- Sep 1, 2013 9:30am Sep 1, 2013 9:30am
- | Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,621 Posts
{quote} Frankfurt Airport ?
I highly doubt he is a 17 year old with the language and words he uses. Its not normal level of English for a 17 year old.
if he´s interested in finance, why not?
- #830,975
- Sep 1, 2013 9:58am Sep 1, 2013 9:58am
- Joined Sep 2012 | Status: classic Arts | 1,043 Posts
{quote} I see the edited graphs and see that you've predicted a move higher like in 2009 before coming back to mean, now if you look a little to the side of that it goes far below the interest rate differential, so why won't that happen in your opinion. and regarding in 2016, if you look back at my first post it says "and unless in crisis mode (2008/9 and 2011) the EUR doesn't diverge from the pure fundamental value," These are the times it diverges. So regarding your comment about black swans, it is entirely the opposite case. The EUR will trade...
Euro had gone up 7 figures from 1.2750 this year while the interest rate differential in your chart is moving side to down.. so in summary, I hope your L/T directional convictions & absolutes are secondary to your risk management..
IMO humility & respect for the market is directly proportional to a trader's longevity..fwiw..
Good night son..
- #830,976
- Sep 1, 2013 10:08am Sep 1, 2013 10:08am
- | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,871 Posts
{quote} Check out the monthly support for Current. This is the Monthly Candles superimposed on a daily chart. Price has broke above resistance and is now testing for support. For all intents and purposes, assumption of a continued down trend could only be made if we continue to sell below the supply line. Wonder why buyers stepped in here during the NY session? Could it be because they wanted in on the cheapies while they were going to bank holiday the beginning of this week? {image}
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and a diamond bottom on the GBPUSD daily :-
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