EURUSD Exclusive

Hi,

Chart sharing

Also weekly closed candle looks like a reversal candle.

I had a thought that such a 'exclusive' thread was needed although I don't participate in EURUSD thread much.

I love ProRealTime.
The ability to use 1 hour bars but still see this much price action, it just sits really well with me.
I feel like its much easier to see the bullishness using this chart.


So the 100% extension of 2756 to 3207 to 2997 was reached last week at 3445.
I have been eyeing 3611 (january monthly close) for a while now, but also see sitting just above it is some more confluence.



ProRealTime, 1 hour chart, 28,000units, dating back to August 23rd, 2012

(exactly 1 year of price action)

The price possible up to 1.4000 ?

Here's a closer look
1 hour

what the f.. is going on with us every single data that they send is a freaking disaster. Like the situation in EU is good but in fact it is way worst than in us but they keep pumping us. These days i really dont know that to think but i dont see any reason why eur should rise just to mention greece, spain, italy quite a big econ. Looks like germany hold everything over the water but that is just rediculous.. naah

Still the movements are highly sick to me but im glad with direction. Next big support in a meltdown is 1,329x that will be crucial for another direction. Either way any close below 1,333 is quite a good change in mark for the change of sentiment definetely.

Target is 1,31 for the next week probably ll cover some shorts at 1,318, maybe not ll see ehat happens with whole syria/war situation if there ll be a "war" than im gonna probably hold till 1,3 - 1,28.

This market reply (lucky for me) is in anticipation of a strike against Syria. If Our Esteemed President keeps his cool and doesn't launch (unless activity is spotted of a new gas attack preparation) and Us numbers come in bad at 830 E.S.T. It could go back up big time. If that happens and the market does not go back up that indicates a market going down down down, (There is support down there somewhere). A launch of tomahawks could send it plummeting to earth (the Euro that is, sorry for the pun). watch for a turnaround at 8:30 e.s.t., otherwise look downwards for support.

this kind of data makes me smile when im a us bull So plan is/was and ll be that we ll see 1,31 soon. But i want to cover something around 1,319 there is kind of support mabe that i ll cover a lot and then sell again after the pump. Either way i want to see 1,32 today at least during asia.

Goes as expected so im satisfied with that. The only sign of "weak" bear move is that there was not any kind of pullback not even once market tried to change the new trend. So in conclusion i cover all my shorts open some long for 40+pip scalp from 1,3182. Expectations are that we ll see 1,327 at least and than 1,31 - 1,3 - 1,27. Lets see if this ll happen or im gonna cry for closed shorts

On the hourly chart, all of my moving averages are pointing down(8,32,96,480) and each faster one is below the slower one. The Bear has arisen from its summery sleep and is very, very hungry. I made good money (for me) shorting the euro last month, which was more difficult to do than the month I see ahead of me. More opportunities to go short; fewer times of waiting around when market goes the other way. But it is not in full roar yet. When will we see this on the daily, weekly, monthly chart? Will it get there before we have to consider a change to trend? Even so, Two, three times a week there will be good opportunity for the bull. Recognize that. Let them have their way. The trace shows an inverted bowl pattern, a very powerful signal for long term trend going down.

rumors about 1,35 even 1,37 by trading crowd were destroyed and everybody who were long are out probably. That small covering beafore the open makes me some additional money after the short covering i bought and sell 5min beafore close. Funny story after that short move i went to gym and open that position there makes me smile closed everything super f.. up in city i can not even remember it

Thing is im worried about war so i dont want to hold anything. If it was just original weekend i would hold my long till 1,325 thats the price im gonna sell on monday maybe 1,327-8 if anything special happen during the weekend. Expect 1,31 even lower in upcoming week we ll see. On the other hand i could be wrong

One reason to check lower timeframes and upper before entering a trade. That look may change your mind for you. I think I will stay in short, but not enter anything new until I have a good look 'round Sunday evening.

Exactly, i dont have thing like trading TF a i trade through timeframes sometimes 1min trade sometimes 1 hour sometimes 1 day. I think that base our trades on some candles or close of some small tf candle is just wrong.

Im pretty sure that it ll go down but the situation about war convince me to cover and open new sunday night morning probably through london we ll see. anyway shorts ll work out for 1,32 too there ll be another hit at least 1,31.

smart money limits held up well since August 18th when I made this chart

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1376868700


we went to 3104 the exact 50% retracement of 2756 to 3452

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1377364616

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1377358089

Thanks for vouch

I prefer 5m, 30min, H4 too. 5min tf I watch for Stupid money as u say or retail traders to catch in on stop hunt. 30min i prefer because i used to trade with Market profile so i see value there better. 1h for sure great market direction viewing. 4h just becasue majority used there so i want to see what they see and than decide if they are right. 1 day for sure.

I cover my shorts as i say and i am bulding long postion looking for 1,326 then small short scalp and then im gonna decide if the test of 1,32 ll come or we ll see 1,35 not sure yet, not sure anytime but no clues yet

Kind of sad that i did not made something on the way to 1,31 because i knew it ll come but i was expected bigger swing. anyway last months are great for me

So the long happened as expected but i covered my position so soon around 1,314 so angry about that but have to get over it. Thoughts are that we ll see 1,31 again during the night or london session with that in mind i throw some shorts there to make some %. After 1,31 im gonna decide but long looks good to me.

I have there a experiment trade at GBP/JPY shorted it too soon but i did not cover it yet hope want to try a swing trade and hold till 153 but that is not eur exclusive so thats it

Monday Sep. 9, EUR/USD summary:

Opening the Asian session at around 1.3165 and without any major data releases for the day the rally was fuelled by the positive Chinese trade data over the weekend and the developments related to the easing situation re. the war on Syria adding to the weigh of the poor payroll data on Friday. The pair opened the US session at 1.3195, it managed to break through 1.3200 and found resistance around 1.3225 before edging higher triggering stops above this level. With stock markets holding steady and then grinding higher, the pair edged to 1.3280 touching the 20D MA before showing signs of exhaustion, giving away some gains back to the 1.3255/60 area towards the end of the session.

Fundamental data for the day:

1. Indexes up, Dow 1%, Nasdaq 1.2%, S&P 500 1%
2. US consumer credit m/m 10.4b vs 12.7b expected, previous revised to 11.9b from 13.8b.
3. European Sentix investor sentiment index is at its 2-year high 6.5 vs -4.0 expected.

Key fundamental data to watch for this week:

1. Thursday Sep. 12: Unemployment claims.
2. Friday Sep. 13: August retail sales and inflation reports.

SF Fed Williams (dove who wants taper, votes on FOMC) speech at NABE, Sep. 9:

1. "I am still 100 percent on board with Chairman (Ben) Bernanke's timeline" for September tapering and ending the Fed's $85b monthly bond buys next year.
2. Expects GDP to grow 3 percent next year, well above potential growth of 2 percent and enough to bring down jobless rate.
3. Recent data is broadly consistent with a view that the economy is gradually improving, Williams said, and the Fed should not be unduly swayed by any single month of data.

QE taper speculation and the USD outlook:

1. Goldman Sachs: The sharp drop in uncertainty since late 2012 might be adding 0.5-1.0 percentage point to growth at present, with a slightly smaller boost in coming quarters. Calls for Fed to taper light. (source: Market News International - MNI, 09-Sep-2013 12:18 GMT)
2. Reuters survey: The US Dollars is the only currency that stands to benefit in the near-term once the Fed begins to pare back its massive bond buying programme. (source: FXWire Pro - Currency Forecast, 09-Sep-2013 12:22 GMT)
3. ING Financial Markets: We are positive on the Dollar accress the board, and that strength has already been seen in a quite convincing way against a lot of the more vulnerable emerging market currencies that operate with large current account deficits. But we increasingly think that over time as the Fed story evolves, the Dollar will improve far more impressively aginst some of those stubbornly resilient major currencies, the Yen, the Euro, the Canadian Dollar. (source FXWire Pro - Currency Forecast, 09-Sep-2013 12:23 GMT)
4. Deutsche Bank: Trend in non-farm payrolls has been remarkably steady; it has essentially remained unchanged at around a +2.2m year-over-year rate since January 2012. If Fed focuses on trend then they will begin the gradual process of QE taper. (source: Market News International - MNI, 09-Sep-2013 17:28 GMT)
5. Kit Jukes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes: Last Friday's US Labor report leaves the Fed on track to announce a small reduction in the pace of bond purchases at next weeks' FOMC meeting. The fed wants to have finished ‘tapering' by the time the unemployment rate gets below 7% and on the current pace of decline, that is going to happen by around April of next year so they need to get their skates on. (source: FXstreet.com, 09-Sep-2013 18:25 GMT)
6. A number of notes about how August jobs has about 80% probability of being revised higher based on last 10 years of data, with average revision at more than +30k and how Fed is aware of this. (source: Market News International - MNI, 09-Sep-2013 18:41 GMT)
7. An informal survey of macro-funds/bank prop desks for September 18 FOMC says 4% expect a $5b taper, 35% expect $10b and 15% expect $15b. No one said the taper was off the table for September. (source: Market News International - MNI, 09-Sep-2013 19:32 GMT)