EurAnalysis

cant wait for monday, thinking of shorting gold below 1410

I was thinking the same thing, but I am going to wait and see how it plays out by end of day Monday.
I want to see a clear divergence indicating that the upswing is over.

IMF's LaGarde: "And I'm crossing fingers for the eurozone..."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ingers-crossed

hi Pablo,

I'm trying to find the CME definition of their customer segments: Dealer, Asset Manager, Other & Leveraged. Who is included in each group?

Venzen..xthis out:

Commitments of Traders Financial Traders (TTF) Report

Trader Classification

The TFF report divides the financial futures market participants into the "sell side" and "buy side." This traditional functional division of financial market participants focuses on their respective roles in the broader marketplace, not whether they are buyers or sellers of futures/option contracts. The category called "dealer/intermediary," for instance, represents sellside participants. Typically, these are dealers and intermediaries that earn commissions on selling financial products, capturing bid/offer spreads and otherwise accommodating clients. The remaining three categories ("asset manager/institutional;" "leveraged funds;" and "other reportables") represent the buy-side participants. These are essentially clients of the sell-side participants who use the markets to invest, hedge, manage risk, speculate or change the term structure or duration of their assets.

Contents of the Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) Report

Dealer/Intermediary - These participants are what are typically described as the "sell side" of the market. Though they may not predominately sell futures, they do design and sell various financial assets to clients. They tend to have matched books or offset their risk across markets and clients. Futures contracts are part of the pricing and balancing of risk associated with the products they sell and their activities. These include large banks (U.S. and non-U.S.) and dealers in securities, swaps and other derivatives.

The rest of the market comprises the "buy-side," which is divided into three separate categories:

Asset Manager/Institutional - These are institutional investors, including pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, mutual funds and those portfolio/investment managers whose clients are predominantly institutional.

Leveraged Funds - These are typically hedge funds and various types of money managers, including registered commodity trading advisors (CTAs); registered commodity pool operators (CPOs) or unregistered funds identified by CFTC.3 The strategies may involve taking outright positions or arbitrage within and across markets. The traders may be engaged in managing and conducting proprietary futures trading and trading on behalf of speculative clients.

Other Reportables - Reportable traders that are not placed into one of the first three categories are placed into the "other reportables" category. The traders in this category mostly are using markets to hedge business risk, whether that risk is related to foreign exchange, equities or interest rates. This category includes corporate treasuries, central banks, smaller banks, mortgage originators, credit unions and any other reportable traders not assigned to the other three categories.

Source http://www.cftc.gov/index.htm

U may compare dealer or other costumer segments with chart graphics ....

Good Data But Don't Fight The Central Banks: Outlooks For EUR & GBP - HSBC
http://www.efxnews.com/story/20374/g...s-eur-gbp-hsbc

The Calm Before The Storm...

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ha...ton082313.html

Once the Dow goes below 14,000 and then 13,000 We need to see where the money will go. Will it go to the US Bonds again or USD/JPY or to Gold... ?

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug13/risk-govt8-13.html

http://www.financialsense.com/http%3...ency-part-five

WWW.FINVIZ.COM


EUR/USD Chart

http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=d1

USD/JPY

http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=usdjpy&tf=d1


Gold

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

EVERYTHING - MONEYFLOW

Risk Off...

http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

From The Asia Online Times

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-01-190813.html

Snippet:


World learns to manage without the US
By Spengler

The giant sucking sound you here, I said on August 15 on CNBC'sThe Kudlow Report, is the implosion of America's influence in the Middle East. Vladimir Putin's August 17 offer of Russian military assistance to the Egyptian army after US President Barack Obama cancelled joint exercises with the Egyptians denotes a post-Cold-War low point in America's standing. Along with Russia, Saudi Arabia and China are collaborating to contain the damage left by American blundering. They have being doing this quietly for more than a year.

The pipe-dream has popped of Egyptian democracy led by a Muslim Brotherhood weaned from its wicked past, but official Washington has not woken up. Egypt was on the verge of starvation when military pushed out Mohammed Morsi. Most of the Egyptian poor had been living on nothing but state-subsidized bread for months, and even bread supplies were at risk. The military brought in US$12 billion of aid from the Gulf States, enough to avert a humanitarian catastrophe. That's the reality. It's the one thing that Russia, Saudi Arabia and Israel agree about. America's whimsical attitude towards Egypt is not a blunder but rather a catastrophic institutional failure. President Obama has surrounded himself with a camarilla, with Susan Rice as National Security Advisor, flanked by Valerie Jarrett, the Iranian-born public housing millionaire. Compared to Obama's team, Zbigniew Brzezinski was an intellectual colossus at Jimmy Carter's NSC. These are amateurs, and it is anyone's guess what they will do from one day to the next.

By default, Republican policy is defined by Senator John McCain, whom the head of Egypt's ruling National Salvation Party dismissed as a "senile old man" after the senator's last visit to Cairo. McCain's belief in Egyptian democracy is echoed by a few high-profile Republican pundits, for example, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Robert Kagan, and Max Boot. Most of the Republican foreign policy community disagrees, by my informal poll. Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld blasted Obama for undermining the Egyptian military's ability to keep order, but his statement went unreported by major media.

It doesn't matter what the Republican experts think. Few elected Republicans will challenge McCain, because the voters are sick of hearing about Egypt and don't trust Republicans after the debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Neither party has an institutional capacity for intelligent deliberation about American interests. Among the veterans of the Reagan and Bush administrations, there are many who understand clearly what is afoot in the world, but the Republican Party is incapable of acting on their advice. That is why the institutional failure is so profound. Republican legislators live in terror of a primary challenge from isolationists like Senator Rand Paul (R-KY), and will defer to the Quixotesque McCain.

Other regional and world powers will do their best to contain the mess.

From My Emails Today - N0 Link...

Get Ready for Another Debt Ceiling Showdown


A recent national poll from Public Policy Polling showed that Congress only has a 9% favorability rating. And 85% of voters view it in a negative light. This makes Congress less popular among Americans than cockroaches, root canals, colonoscopies, and traffic jams.

Considering Congress doesn’t seem to get anything done these days, the results of this poll don’t surprise me a bit. In fact, it’s very likely ratings will drop even more in the coming months. That’s because we’re about to see another debt ceiling showdown in Washington.

On Sept. 9, Congress will return from a five-week break. At that point, they will have just three weeks to negotiate a new debt ceiling deal before government funding runs out. Nobody can predict the final outcome, but you can be certain of one thing: negotiations will be ugly. And this will make September a very interesting month for the markets, especially for precious metals.

Another example of government dysfunction
You can already tell negotiations will be very dramatic. On one hand, President Barack Obama and the Democrats say Congress must raise the legal debt limit with no conditions attached. On the other hand, Republicans want to delay “Obamacare” in exchange for an increased debt limit. They believe delaying the law is their best shot at trying to overthrow it altogether.

The recent drop in our budget deficit will also complicate negotiations. According to Bloomberg, since 2009, the federal budget deficit has narrowed from more than 10% of the gross domestic product (GDP) to 5.7% of GDP.2This is the smallest gap in four years.

And the Congressional Budget Office forecasts the deficit will drop to 4% of GDP by the end of this fiscal year.3 Part of this deficit reduction comes from this year’s compromise package of tax hikes and spending cuts known as sequestration. Tax revenues have also increased because of the improved economy.
Both parties are using this declining deficit as a negotiation point. Democrats say they won’t agree to any spending cuts because annual deficits have already been sliced in half. Since the sequester spending cuts are already having a negative impact on the economy, they say there’s no room to negotiate more spending cuts. On the other hand, Republicans are using the improving deficit to make the argument that there’s no need for more tax increases.
What’s really surprising to me is that, in the midst of all these negotiations, both parties mostly ignore a far more important issue: the reform of entitlement programs, such as Social Security and Medicare. It’s those programs that will bankrupt our nation, if nothing is done to fix them.

This is bad for our nation, but good for gold
As you can see, it won’t be easy for Democrats and Republicans to come to an agreement. We’re likely to see some dramatic negotiations, including even threats that they will just let the U.S. default on its debt. This will have important implications for the markets.
Every time our politicians create a circus in Washington, they show the entire world that our nation lacks the political will to solve its debt problem. This reduces overall confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. While this is bad for our country, it’s good for gold and silver.
Daily Pfennig readers saw this play out in July 2011, the last time there was a huge fight over raising the nation’s debt limit. It was the threat of default that pushed gold from $1,500 to $1,900 in that month alone.

More importantly, gold seems to have a strong correlation with the debt ceiling over the long-term. As you can see in the chart below, gold tends to have huge rallies every time Congress decides to raise our debt limit.
Another thing to keep in mind is that these debt ceiling debates have become much more frequent in recent years. There’s one simple reason for that: our debt keeps growing. No wonder gold has been in a strong secular bull market over the past 12 years.
There’s A Strong Correlation Between Gold and U.S. Debt
http://www.dailypfennig.com/wp-conte...-33.1SMALL.jpg
(Click here to view a larger image.)
According to the U.S. Treasury, “Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit.”4 Raising the debt ceiling has become a national tradition. That’s why I think that, despite all the drama surrounding the coming debt ceiling debate, Congress will end up increasing the limit once again.
And this could trigger a major rally in gold. Perhaps the market has already started to price in that event. Just over the past month or so, gold has moved from $1,200 to $1,365. Silver has also started to recover in recent weeks, rallying from $19 to $23, a 21% move.
If you haven’t taken advantage of the sharp correction in precious metals, now could be a good time to jump back in. The coming debt ceiling discussions could push gold and silver even higher.
Until the next Pfennig...
Sincerely,
Mike Meyer
Assistant Vice President
EverBank World Markets, a division of EverBank


To post a comment on this article, go to DailyPfennig.com.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/20374/g...=Yahoo%21+Mail


Snippet:

The problem for the EUR is that while things are getting better, they are not doing so sufficiently quickly to really change the complexion of the big picture for the Eurozone. Despite the improvement in data recently, consensus expectations for 2013 GDP growth remain deeply negative, and forecasts for 2014 pivot around a mere 1%. This is not sufficiently quick to improve the debt dynamics faced by the Eurozone. Nor would it be swift enough to foster any worrying upswing in inflation. Therefore, the pressure will remain on the ECB to repeat the dovish rhetoric of forward guidance and possibly deliver further easing, for example another LTRO in 2014 or 2015. The market will not be able to rule out a rate cut so long as growth remains below potential and inflation under control.

Like the EUR, GBP has enjoyed a revival against the USD largely on the back of better-than-expected UK economic data (see chart 7). Consensus growth expectations have been revised higher, to 1.7% YoY for 2014 from 1.5% two months ago. But like the Eurozone, data has simply been less bad than expected. In addition, the rhetoric from the BoE, under its new governor Mark Carney, seems determined to downplay the significance of this run of good data. The emphasis remains on the perceived ample spare capacity, reflected in an unemployment rate forecast which does not see it falling below the 7% threshold until 2016.
http://www.efxnews.com/sites/default...css/hsbc33.PNG
The interest rate futures market has become energised by the better data, and UK gilts have sold off more aggressively than either their Eurozone or US counterparts. But the BoE seems unlikely to match the rising probability being attached to a rate hike in the futures market so the rhetoric is likely to remain dovish in an effort to massage these expectations for the policy rate back lower. In addition, if massaging rates lower does not work on the long end of the curve, the BoE may need to re-introduce the sledgehammer of QE. We believe neither the rhetoric nor the balance of risks to BoE policy will prove helpful to GBP."


CurrencyMan

September 2013 should be one of the most interesting months of the year of 2013.

NFP and FOMC decisions along with Elections in Germany and so so many major unknown events.

Right after Labor Day we should see many things including possible Real War, Currency Wars, Gold Wars and maybe the Black Swan ???

Watch the MONEYFLOW, Gold, USD/JPY and of course the US Bond Yields especially on the 10 Year US Bonds.

Have a Great Trading Week and Enjoy !!!

http://www.efxnews.com/story/20370/g...ve-positioning

Snippet:

Focus of the day:
"We update our look at speculative FX positioning in the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report. We do this against a backdrop where market anxiety over the possibility of tapering by the Fed in September has risen again following the FOMC minutes earlier this week, which – though they didn’t lock the FOMC into imminent tapering – didn’t do much to assuage a nervous market.Against this backdrop, sentiment among our clients and in the broader market is broadly USD bullish, which is interesting because that is not the picture the CoT report paints. Although USD longs are large against the JPY in particular, this is clearly a case where idiosyncratic factors (possible further BoJ easing) may prevail. Similarly, USD longs against the GBP and AUD reflect some expectation of easing in those places. The notable outlier in all this is the EUR, where speculative positioning is now quite long against the USD, while speculative positioning of other currencies is flat against the US Dollar. The picture that emerges is therefore much more nuanced than the last time there was a broad market consensus on USD direction, which was in the run-up to QE2 in 2010. Back then the market was short USD across the board. These results suggest that USD longs may not be as large as they are said to be."
Robin Brooks & Julian Richers - Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Copyright 2013 eFXnews

gonna wait for london open and decide then

MonAug 26
All Day
GBP

Bank Holiday

http://www.kansascityfed.org/publica...3/2013Hall.pdf

Thanks TraderPablo and CurrencyMan for invaluable info!

Hello Traders!

I just wanted to teach me if I do this the right way to search a long way toward the goal! on GBPCHF!
and it seems to have got double bottom on daily basis and I have caught it in 4h using the support line and staple when I took out fibonacci and I hope I have done this right! because I seek is best suited to act where it has the best bike waves in the market!
yes correct me grateful for the help!

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

For your enjoyment..............!