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  • #4,021
  • Aug 24, 2013 1:42pm Aug 24, 2013 1:42pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I believe we will hit at least 59 1st before going past 1.65. I seriously doubt G/C going beyond price channel since 2010.Its been within it for over 3yrs. For this pair to go higher past 1.65 there must be real fundamental reasons change ie serious drop of oil prices..which I don't see it happening. Yes upside has tremendous potential but that upside was coming from 2008 crash.In my humble view global economy is stagnant and no country's economy is dominate to cause extreme shift. Regards {image}
Hi Davit. It's always good to toss these things around and see the different views from traders. This is what makes a market...differing opinion.

With that said, absolutely this will go down before a retrace up. But from where I'm sitting, the downside can be quick and nasty. I have my SHORT on, believe me. However, the return upwards will be interesting. One I will keep an eye on.

Have a good remainder of the weekend!
  • #4,022
  • Aug 25, 2013 2:31am Aug 25, 2013 2:31am
My views, looks strong bull controlled market as of now. My chart is attached with detailed analysis of mine. We have established support @ 1.5880-1.5900 handle, but I am looking at 1.6280 handle where there was previous resistance which can act as support now, a perfect 3 drive harmonic move can start from this price level, & there are also many Fib & Fib extension confluence over there. But its market & it can do anything irrespective of how many odds we stack in our favor. Target is well above at 1.6880 handle so its very high R:R play.

Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,023
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:58am Aug 25, 2013 5:58am
Quoting alex4xes
My views, looks strong bull controlled market as of now. My chart is attached with detailed analysis of mine. We have established support @ 1.5880-1.5900 handle, but I am looking at 1.6280 handle where there was previous resistance which can act as support now, a perfect 3 drive harmonic move can start from this price level, & there are also many Fib & Fib extension confluence over there. But its market & it can do anything irrespective of how many odds we stack in our favor. Target is well above at 1.6880 handle so its very high R:R play. Cheers!...
Alex4xes, that is what I am looking at. That is after this retrace to the downside is finished on this leg. That monsterous engulfing on the M chart didn't just develop for no reason. Positions are moving in that direction in a big way. If it fizzles out, then so be it. Again, anything can happen. But the charts usually signal what is developing.

Great remainder of the weekend to ya.
  • #4,024
  • Aug 25, 2013 9:20am Aug 25, 2013 9:20am
On GBP/CAD we are now bouncing from the upper TL of the 2010 channel (1.65 - 1.63ish zone, which in was previously a strong Support and from 2010 became Resistance).
IMO we are heading to the Daily 61,8% Fib retracement - around 1.5937.
On the Daily chart of G/C the 61,8% is very much respected most of the time.

I remain bearish on this pair and going to add more SHORT positions after breaking the 38.2% Fib.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,025
  • Aug 25, 2013 9:29am Aug 25, 2013 9:29am
USDCAD seems to be getting a bit ahead of itself vs yield spread

*USDCAD in white
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  • #4,026
  • Aug 25, 2013 11:42am Aug 25, 2013 11:42am
My outlook on G/C
Since I am swing trader I will wait patiently.It may happened this week or following but waiting I must.
Average daily candles or swing lasts 7-10days.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,027
  • Aug 25, 2013 12:26pm Aug 25, 2013 12:26pm
Quoting Davit
My outlook on G/C Since I am swing trader I will wait patiently.It may happened this week or following but waiting I must. Average daily candles or swing lasts 7-10days. {image}
Davit, yes , patience. I am short as well on GBP/CAD, but I am always looking out to the next move LONG RANGE.
I am a Swing to Position trader as I have metioned before. I do scalp now and then when an opportunity is staring me in the face. But Swing to Position is my style of trading.

I am looking out to the next trade opportunity possibilities always. I know that the dynamics of market sentiment is changing all the time.
  • #4,028
  • Aug 25, 2013 12:38pm Aug 25, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting Fxmaximus
{quote} Davit, yes , patience. I am short as well on GBP/CAD, but I am always looking out to the next move LONG RANGE. I am a Swing to Position trader as I have metioned before. I do scalp now and then when an opportunity is staring me in the face. But Swing to Position is my style of trading. I am looking out to the next trade opportunity possibilities always. I know that the dynamics of market sentiment is changing all the time.

Hi Maximus
I am looking at E/N for short opportunity as well.Very overbought.Something worth looking.Of course decline in E/N is correlated with NU.If Nu starts gaining which I think it will then expect at least 300pip drop on EN in fast rabid way like in 2days.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,029
  • Aug 25, 2013 12:58pm Aug 25, 2013 12:58pm
Sorry that I am posting unrelated pair....
on E/N we can see a clear divergence developing on CCI
Common rule on CCI is to wait until price goes below 0 for short.I tend to get in little earlier since difference could be 100pips or more.
On the other hand trend can resume up so waiting for below Zero line is safer.
Personally I like CCI best compare to MACD or RSI hence one should take a note that CCI 14 zero line is 14moving average which I also have on my chart blue line.One should look at Price Action and momentum to trade smart hence CCI trades are not taken blindly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,030
  • Edited 1:16pm Aug 25, 2013 1:01pm | Edited 1:16pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Maximus I am looking at E/N for short opportunity as well.Very overbought.Something worth looking.Of course decline in E/N is correlated with NU.If Nu starts gaining which I think it will then expect at least 300pip drop on EN in fast rabid way like in 2days. {image}
Outstanding stuff Davit. I will look this pair over, of course , as outlined by HDA's method. I am looking at these "cross pairs" with new eyes since that post from HDA, keying in on the Majors each are tied to. This style of Parallel/Inverse analysis is very powerful stuff indeed.

NOTE: In this pair of the EUR/NZD, you want to see where the EUR/USD AND NZD/USD are sitting. They must both be aligned in either the SUPPLY or DEMAND areas. I'll look at that closer when I get back this afternoon.

Thanks for the pointer to the EUR/NZD. I definitely see that it is on the outer edge of the "overbought" range and can present some nice opportunity! I'll do my best to throw pair ideas your way as I see them come. Again, always looking with the Swing to Position trade style in view.

I'll be back on later when the markets start to come on, though it is Asia, I like to see what starts to develop before the big guns come stepping in.

Have a good remainder of the day.
  • #4,031
  • Aug 25, 2013 1:06pm Aug 25, 2013 1:06pm
Como eu disse antes e volto a dizer novamente, forçado pela análise fundamentalista o crescimento da onda 3 foi parado sendo forçado a criar-se uma onda de correção a onda 4 que pode ter um pouco de desequilíbrio por partes dos investidores e a onda 5 tem grandes possibilidades de não ultrapassar a resistência no nível 1.06x essa e a realidade com que eu acredito, então quem estiver nesse trem saiba que o maquinista puxou o freio e irar dar uma pequena ré boa sorte a todos, e se eu estiver errado que Deus me proteja
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  • #4,032
  • Aug 25, 2013 1:34pm Aug 25, 2013 1:34pm
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  • #4,033
  • Edited 5:24pm Aug 25, 2013 5:01pm | Edited 5:24pm
Quoting Fxmaximus
{quote} Outstanding stuff Davit. I will look this pair over, of course , as outlined by HDA's method. I am looking at these "cross pairs" with new eyes since that post from HDA, keying in on the Majors each are tied to. This style of Parallel/Inverse analysis is very powerful stuff indeed. NOTE: In this pair of the EUR/NZD, you want to see where the EUR/USD AND NZD/USD are sitting. They must both be aligned in either the SUPPLY or DEMAND areas. I'll look at that closer when I get back this afternoon. Thanks for the...
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Maximus I am looking at E/N for short opportunity as well.Very overbought.Something worth looking.Of course decline in E/N is correlated with NU.If Nu starts gaining which I think it will then expect at least 300pip drop on EN in fast rabid way like in 2days. {image}
@Davit:

I came back to check on you re: your GBP/CAD trade and as you notice the precise range I gave to go short, the market entered it between 1.6475 and 1.6545 and then down she went, based on only analyzing the TWO MAJORs GBP/USD and USD/CAD and doing absolutely no analysis on the GBP/CAD. I never discussed exit I only discussed entry so you would grabbed about 150pips and the rest is up to you.

I promised my spouse I wouldn't come back into FF because it is robbing her of her time so I had to ask permission to send this VERY FINAL post after reading about your EUR/NZD.

I'm struggling with myself as to how to write this without affecting your thought process or affecting your bias or method of analysis. I am at a loss for words that would help me to achieve sharing without affecting how you see the market now as it relates to the EUR/NZD.

You are suggesting shorts.

How do I write this? - hmmmmmmmm - It is my opinion, yeah, let me try that.

Its is my opinion the a 400 pip opportunity to go long on EUR/NZD has presented itself if one is willing to take the risk, if patience isn't a virtue that they value.

The EUR/USD is at the Supply ZONE
The NZD/USD is heading to the DEMAND ZONE - has not reached yet.

So both pairs do not line up as yet, in terms of

EUR/USD at SUPPLY and NZD/USD at DEMAND
or
EUR/USD at DEMAND and NZD/USD at SUPPLY.

EDIT: For the GBP/CAD - because the base currency was CAD it would be SUPPLY, SUPPLY, DEMAND, DEMAND. But because the base currency for both EUR and NZD is the USD - then it will be SUPPLY, DEMAND or DEMAND, SUPPLY.

Again this is my method for a stress free entry and good profits - of course you have to plan your trade before you execute as to entry, stop loss and exits.

What I see for this week, which is my opinion, please note, my opinion for, Sunday, August 25, 2013 to Friday, August 30, 2013, with respect to EUR/NZD is long for 400 pips -

EDIT:

Would I trade it? - NO because - my discipline is to trade SUPPLY, DEMAND, DEMAND, SUPPLY, with respect to crosses with the USD as the base currency. It is how I keep my trading Stress Free and not have to think about it. So it could also go down as you have said, my discipline is to trade SUPPLY, DEMAND, DEMAND, SUPPLY, with respect to crosses with the USD as the base currency.

The EUR/USD right now is not great to trade stress free and so I have avoided to trade any pair with EUR/USD attached to it.

With all that said - take from it what ever you find helpful and you can also discard it.

HAPPY TRADING THIS WEEK.


Yours respectfully,

HDA OUT
Human Development Apostle
"Inspiring The Uninspired"




P.S. I don't want to end up in the dog house again - lol - so this is really my FINAL POST unless I get permission - LoL! I just goddah keep her happy. She is my strength when I need her the most.
  • #4,034
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:03pm Aug 25, 2013 5:03pm
Quoting JeremyWS
if this 4 hour candle closes like this for GBPCAD its seemingly a very strong reversal.
@JeremyWS:

Keep up the great work, there is a very bright future for you in the world of speculating and that's why I VOUCHED for you.

  • #4,035
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:15pm Aug 25, 2013 5:15pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} {quote} @Davit: I came back to check on you re: your GBP/CAD trade and as you notice the precise range I gave to go short, the market entered it between 1.6475 and 1.6545 and then down she went, based on only analyzing the TWO MAJORs GBP/USD and USD/CAD and doing absolutely no analysis on the GBP/CAD. I never discussed exit I only discussed entry so you would grabbed about 150pips and the rest is up to you. I promised my spouse I wouldn't come back into FF because it is robbing her of her time so I had to ask permission to send this VERY...
I always appreciate your posts.
I went short EN at 7174 now moved my SL to 7160 and I got a free trade.If she goes down fine if not I will grab few pips.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,036
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:18pm Aug 25, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I always appreciate your posts. I went short EN at 7174 now moved my SL to 7160 and I got a free trade.If she goes down fine if not I will grab few pips. Regards
Nice call, I was looking at it Thursday, I believe. The daily had price action in a great triple top supply zone. I got 70 pips, but it was the first time with euro-kiwi so I didn't know what to expect

You plan on carry trading it?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #4,037
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:26pm Aug 25, 2013 5:26pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Nice call, I was looking at it Thursday, I believe. The daily had price action in a great triple top supply zone. I got 70 pips, but it was the first time with euro-kiwi so I didn't know what to expect You plan on carry trading it?

Wow over 40pips in 30min.This is on steroids.
I plan to hold until 6660 area 61.8fib
over 400pips south
Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd.daily.png Size: 40 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,038
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:27pm Aug 25, 2013 5:27pm
@Davit:

I EDIT the previous post - Please re- read: sections labelled EDIT

The base currency for both MAJORS is USD.

Sorry About that - when I re- read I realised the Error.

  • #4,039
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:37pm Aug 25, 2013 5:37pm
Quoting HDA
@Davit: I EDIT the previous post - Please re- read: sections labelled EDIT The base currency for both MAJORS is USD. Sorry About that - when I re- read I realised the Error.

Hi HDA
Your post kind of perplexed me.EN going up 400pips is serious from current 71 level and last time it went that high was 2011
So having major in mind if EN to go up 400pips NU must go down at least 200pips.
NU already dropped 300pips from 81 so looking for minimum 100pips retrace up.I am also short bias on Euro/USD
So having all this put together I just don't see 400pips up move on E/N
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,040
  • Edited 6:31pm Aug 25, 2013 5:55pm | Edited 6:31pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi HDA Your post kind of perplexed me.EN going up 400pips is serious from current 71 level and last time it went that high was 2011 So having major in mind if EN to go up 400pips NU must go down at least 200pips. NU already dropped 300pips from 81 so looking for minimum 100pips retrace up.I am also short bias on Euro/USD So having all this put together I just don't see 400pips up move on E/N Regards
@Davit:

I'm getting into trouble here, lol - its dinner time and she's at the table waiting. You are correct, the NZD/USD is projected to fall 200 pips to the DEMAND ZONE between 0.7550 and 0.7500

Lets see what happens

So EUR/NZD target for a short would between 1.7600 and 1.7700 plus or minus



P.S. This is what I meant about sharing with you and at the same time trying not to affect your our analysis.

EDIT:
Would I short it? - YES but between1.7600 and 1.7700.

Have to run - I am definately going in the dog house again.
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