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  • #3,981
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:03pm Aug 22, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting Fxmaximus
Davit, check out the M tf on the GBP/CAD. Is that an engulfing or what? Threw down some for long term growth. Lookin' kinda ready to give some growth spurts as the commodity currencies....(CAD, NZD, AUD...I know you know that) are getting clocked. "Set and forget."

I am unhappily short on GC on multiple positions.Nagative news does not help my positions.
If you look at the weekly chart GC has been in channel since 2010 and 6450 is kind of topping off.To go higher GU must go higher as well.
I am in real dilemma.Closed everything and take a ass spanking loss or hold on to 1.60 at least to get out.Its really stressing me now.I foolishly misjudged the strength of cable.
I can tell you this from now on only trades will be in direction of trend.
I am looking at E/N at 7150 for strong sell zone previous turning point.This could be my biggest loss in my 2yr trading venture.Lot of things to iron out.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,982
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:21pm Aug 22, 2013 2:21pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am unhappily short on GC on multiple positions.Nagative news does not help my positions. If you look at the weekly chart GC has been in channel since 2010 and 6450 is kind of topping off.To go higher GU must go higher as well. I am in real dilemma.Closed everything and take a ass spanking loss or hold on to 1.60 at least to get out.Its really stressing me now.I foolishly misjudged the strength of cable. I can tell you this from now on only trades will be in direction of trend. I am looking at E/N at 7150 for strong sell zone previous turning...

Tough call with the psyche we always want to break even and then it keeps going against us sometimes. So hard to pull the trigger to save capital so one can trade for another day. I feel your pain hope it isnt too hurtful for you!
  • #3,983
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:35pm Aug 22, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am unhappily short on GC on multiple positions.Nagative news does not help my positions. If you look at the weekly chart GC has been in channel since 2010 and 6450 is kind of topping off.To go higher GU must go higher as well. I am in real dilemma.Closed everything and take a ass spanking loss or hold on to 1.60 at least to get out.Its really stressing me now.I foolishly misjudged the strength of cable. I can tell you this from now on only trades will be in direction of trend. I am looking at E/N at 7150 for strong sell zone previous turning...
Davit, from my personal experience, I can only handle two trades at a time maximum. It is so easy to get painted into a corner when tied up on several pairs.

Recall HDA. He was always looking at two trades he shared with us maximum at any given time. Remember the terms he used..."stress free" trading. It speaks volumes.
  • #3,984
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:38pm Aug 22, 2013 2:38pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am unhappily short on GC on multiple positions.Nagative news does not help my positions. If you look at the weekly chart GC has been in channel since 2010 and 6450 is kind of topping off.To go higher GU must go higher as well. I am in real dilemma.Closed everything and take a ass spanking loss or hold on to 1.60 at least to get out.Its really stressing me now.I foolishly misjudged the strength of cable. I can tell you this from now on only trades will be in direction of trend. I am looking at E/N at 7150 for strong sell zone previous turning...
just a thing, statistically speaking there is a >95% tomorrow closes down for GBPCAD due to it moving 9 days in the same direction.

However due to GDP I'm shorting EURCAD, looks good for at least 1.3975

if you're in a big loss, there is no harm in waiting one more day to see if it turns...
  • #3,985
  • Aug 22, 2013 2:46pm Aug 22, 2013 2:46pm
Davit ur still a beast of a trader don't let it get u down
  • #3,986
  • Edited 6:50pm Aug 22, 2013 5:09pm | Edited 6:50pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am unhappily short on GC on multiple positions.Nagative news does not help my positions. If you look at the weekly chart GC has been in channel since 2010 and 6450 is kind of topping off.To go higher GU must go higher as well. I am in real dilemma.Closed everything and take a ass spanking loss or hold on to 1.60 at least to get out.Its really stressing me now.I foolishly misjudged the strength of cable. I can tell you this from now on only trades will be in direction of trend. I am looking at E/N at 7150 for strong sell zone previous turning...
Hello Davit. Same dilemma brother. But I never close everything. My closing strategy is same as position building strategy. I closed some lowest short position on GC and some are still open. Same on EC. But I always cover my ass and all lowest closed lost positions are hedged with some other winning trades on other pairs. So in those times I just don't lose and don't make a profit. Good luck.
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  • #3,987
  • Aug 22, 2013 7:28pm Aug 22, 2013 7:28pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am unhappily short on GC on multiple positions.Nagative news does not help my positions. If you look at the weekly chart GC has been in channel since 2010 and 6450 is kind of topping off.To go higher GU must go higher as well. I am in real dilemma.Closed everything and take a ass spanking loss or hold on to 1.60 at least to get out.Its really stressing me now.I foolishly misjudged the strength of cable. I can tell you this from now on only trades will be in direction of trend. I am looking at E/N at 7150 for...
@Davit:


I got an e-mail about forex factory making changes to member profile so I came back to see what the changes are. I like the changes. Then I decided to read the USD/CAD thread and saw your post.

Davit - you are a good guy - so I'm going to share with you what I, please note, what I consider to be stress free in terms of how to analyze trading any of the crosses. I say again - this is my way. I will be writing this in its simpliest form, so please understand, that it is not a reflection of how much I think you know and understand, but for the many others that may read this, whom may have a lesser understanding of crosses, forex and trading.

HERE WE GO:

To trade crosses, you have to only focus on both MAJORS of the crosses - we know that.

For example - GBP/CAD is a cross - so we have to watch GBP/USD (major) and we have to watch USD/CAD (major).

The base currency for the GBP/CAD is the CAD - so with that in mind - the base currency has a significant effect on the GBP/CAD pair.

KEY THING TO NOTE:

If the (major) USD/CAD, with the CAD being the base currency for the GBP/CAD, we have to pay close attention to the (major) (USD/CAD) as it significantly will affect the GBP/CAD because the CAD is the base currency for the GBP/CAD pair.

With the basics out of the way - here is what I use to help my analysis, keeping it simple and stress free.

The analysis must heavily be focused on the Majors and not the crosses.

By that I mean:

Where is the GBP/USD in terms of the Supply or Demand or Neutral Zone?
Where is the USD/CAD in terms of the Supply or Demand or Neutral Zone?

Please see past posts as a reminder Re: GBP/USD

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post6870449
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post6867618

At the end of last week, Friday, August 16, 2013, the GBP/USD just entered the SUPPLY ZONE 1.5660.
So we now would be expecting the GBP/USD to fall with the key ingredient, PATIENCE.

At the end of last week, Friday, August 16, 2013, the USD/CAD was at the NEUTRAL ZONE 1.0300
So we did not know what to expect in terms of direction for the USD/CAD for this trading week so with the key ingredient, PATIENCE, we would have to wait to place a trade on the GBP/CAD.

This is the key to trading the crosses profitably:
Wait until Both Majors are at the same zone and then you buy or sell the cross.

Therefore: Since both GBP/USD and USD/CAD are not at the same zone be it supply or demand at the start of this trading week - you would not place a trade on the crosses until they are both lined up.

What I am telling you now is priceless:

The GBP is at the SUPPLY ZONE and the USD/CAD is about to enter the SUPPLY ZONE - a shorting opportunity on the GBP/CAD is about to present itself because they are both at the SUPPLY ZONE.

But we need an entry for the cross - how do we find that entry?


The (majors) GBP/USD and USD/CAD will tell us.

Remember -
The CAD is the base currency for the GBP/CAD, so your focus now only needs to be on the USD/CAD.

Sellers are comfortably lined up at 1.0550 between 1.0590 (SUPPLY) on the USD/CAD.

Now for every 50 pip move on the USD/CAD - the crosses move 100pips

So the USD/CAD currently trading at 1.0510 now has 40pips to go to get to 1.0550 where sellers are camped out which would be an 80 pip move on the GBP/CAD up from its current price 1.6395 as of typing this at 7:40pm Eastern, Thursday, August 22, 2013.


So lets focus on entry.

If the sellers are camped out at 1.0550 to 1.0590 on the USD/CAD we should look for a short entry on the GBP/CAD between:

USD/CAD Sellers 1.0550 - 1.0510 Current Market Price = 40pips distance x 2 = 80pip entry price GBP/CAD
USD/CAD Sellers 1.0585 - 1.0510 Current Market Price = 75pips distance x 2 = 150pip entry price GBP/CAD

Therefore one could look to short the GBP/CAD between 1.6475 and 1.6545

GBP/CAD Current Price 1.6395 + 80pips = 1.6475 Entry price
GBP/CAD Current Price 1.6395 + 150pips = 1.6545 Entry price

I hope this explanation helps you to understand how I look at entering a trade on the CROSSES.

So with all that information I have just shared with you - you can take from it whatever you may find helpful to you.

Yours Respectfully,
HDA

P.S. - I see thatFXMindset's membership with FF was revoked, I guess it must have been something serious. He always brought humour to my days when he wrote in the EUR/USD thread.

I'm gone again - Hang In There - I love the membership profile changes

  • #3,988
  • Aug 22, 2013 9:23pm Aug 22, 2013 9:23pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Davit: I got an e-mail about forex factory making changes to member profile so I came back to see what the changes are. I like the changes. Then I decided to read the USD/CAD thread and saw your post. Davit - you are a good guy - so I'm going to share with you what I, please note, what I consider to be stress free in terms of how to analyze trading any of the crosses. I say again - this is my way. I will be writing this in its simpliest form, so please understand, that it is not a reflection of how much I think you know and understand,...
Hi HDA,

We need more PEOPLE like you here. Good analysis. Davit is a good trader, so I will offer my analysis as well.

GBP is in sell zone and I have already sold so I will focus on UCAD and GCAD. UCAD I am looking to sell in the 1.0566 zone and GCAD starts to be entering the sell zone at 1.64530 zone as per charts. Now when I look at these charts, I also see the potential for them to push higher, but in the short run, I see these areas as potential trades.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #3,989
  • Aug 22, 2013 10:21pm Aug 22, 2013 10:21pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Davit: I got an e-mail about forex factory making changes to member profile so I came back to see what the changes are. I like the changes. Then I decided to read the USD/CAD thread and saw your post. Davit - you are a good guy - so I'm going to share with you what I, please note, what I consider to be stress free in terms of how to analyze trading any of the crosses. I say again - this is my way. I will be writing this in its simpliest form, so please understand, that it is not a reflection of how much I think you know and understand,...
Every time I read these tremendously knowledgeable and experience-packed posts from HDA, I realize how much I DON'T know about trading the FX. I cannot tell you how much this man has taught me just by my reading his posts and testing their content out for myself in this very short time he has been here. Folks, this stuff is absolutely priceless. If a person on these boards is serious about being a professional in mindset and discipline trading the FX, read ALL of these posts from HDA. And here's the kicker, he is giving this education for FREE. People this giving are individuals to sit up and take notice of. Someone of measure and substance has revealed themselves to you. Thanks Mr HDA. Thanks so much.
  • #3,990
  • Aug 22, 2013 10:58pm Aug 22, 2013 10:58pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Davit: I got an e-mail about forex factory making changes to member profile so I came back to see what the changes are. I like the changes. Then I decided to read the USD/CAD thread and saw your post. Davit - you are a good guy - so I'm going to share with you what I, please note, what I consider to be stress free in terms of how to analyze trading any of the crosses. I say again - this is my way. I will be writing this in its simpliest form, so please understand, that it is not a reflection of how much I think you know and understand,...
Good day to you, HDA

Excellent that you take the time to post your thought process in detail. Much respect.

All success to you

Regards
  • #3,991
  • Aug 22, 2013 11:24pm Aug 22, 2013 11:24pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am unhappily short on GC on multiple positions.Nagative news does not help my positions. If you look at the weekly chart GC has been in channel since 2010 and 6450 is kind of topping off.To go higher GU must go higher as well. I am in real dilemma.Closed everything and take a ass spanking loss or hold on to 1.60 at least to get out.Its really stressing me now.I foolishly misjudged the strength of cable. I can tell you this from now on only trades will be in direction of trend. I am looking at E/N at 7150 for strong sell zone previous turning...

Hey Davit,

Just seen this bro.

Similar situation for me a few weeks ago with EA. I closed at a loss and the day after the damn thing turned and dropped to below what my TP was set. Backwards I went.

I agree largely with what HDA has said and everything is pointing down. GBP/CAD is on the roof and has to fall off at some point soon. GBP positive data has been overplayed and from any strength is running out of legs.

Im short this pair too and will be holding.

Good luck to us all.
Money never sleeps...
  • #3,992
  • Aug 22, 2013 11:27pm Aug 22, 2013 11:27pm
the usd/cad holded the uppper channel support line so far and heading to test the highs of 1.06 so that would be an important level and if break 1.06 we should consider that the price could reach 1.10
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  • #3,993
  • Aug 22, 2013 11:28pm Aug 22, 2013 11:28pm
Hi HDA, always good to see you my friend.

I don't know what happened with FXMindset. He was a character for sure. I seen him have some incredible arguments with several members a few years ago and especially remember him winding up (or trying to) I'll be back. Great battle with Faller too a few years ago now.

It seems that over time a great many of the characters leave us (or are forced out).

Such is life I suppose and nothing is forever. (except this GBPCAD bull run it seems).
Money never sleeps...
  • #3,994
  • Aug 22, 2013 11:38pm Aug 22, 2013 11:38pm
Guys thanks a lot for wonderful posts.It kind of lifted my spirits.I was very down at work thinking how foolishly I traded.This is like being in marines training underwater eyes closed pulling someone to surface...
Quoting Jeremy Oak
{quote} Tough call with the psyche we always want to break even and then it keeps going against us sometimes. So hard to pull the trigger to save capital so one can trade for another day. I feel your pain hope it isnt too hurtful for you!
Quoting Fxmaximus
{quote} Davit, from my personal experience, I can only handle two trades at a time maximum. It is so easy to get painted into a corner when tied up on several pairs. Recall HDA. He was always looking at two trades he shared with us maximum at any given time. Remember the terms he used..."stress free" trading. It speaks volumes.
FXMaximus
Thanks for advise.I will be lot more cautious and conservative in the future.Lessons learned.

Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} just a thing, statistically speaking there is a >95% tomorrow closes down for GBPCAD due to it moving 9 days in the same direction. However due to GDP I'm shorting EURCAD, looks good for at least 1.3975 if you're in a big loss, there is no harm in waiting one more day to see if it turns...
Jeremy thanks for the insight.I hope that works out for Bear traders.I do need it.

Quoting iNSIELD
Davit ur still a beast of a trader don't let it get u down
Insield
Thank you I have already learned great deal what NOT to do....which is basically improvement.Its amazing how market always teaches you something new.
Hopefully we rebound and end the year in 100% return at minimum.

Quoting zolo
{quote} Hello Davit. Same dilemma brother. But I never close everything. My closing strategy is same as position building strategy. I closed some lowest short position on GC and some are still open. Same on EC. But I always cover my ass and all lowest closed lost positions are hedged with some other winning trades on other pairs. So in those times I just don't lose and don't make a profit. Good luck. {image}
Zolo
I did close 4 positions to lighten the positions 25% of overall.All my orders are on GC but EN is starting to look attractive as well.Thank you for the tip.

Quoting HDA
{quote} @Davit: I got an e-mail about forex factory making changes to member profile so I came back to see what the changes are. I like the changes. Then I decided to read the USD/CAD thread and saw your post. Davit - you are a good guy -
HDA

Wow great post.To be honest I noticed the movement on cross and majors and I did notice how fast and far crosses travel but I never thought or articulated the thinking behind.

Thanks for your insight.I will hold and see if it turns around soon.I am glad you decided to post again.Truly we need traders like you here more often.

Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,995
  • Aug 22, 2013 11:40pm Aug 22, 2013 11:40pm
it's time to go short in near future
  • #3,996
  • Aug 22, 2013 11:44pm Aug 22, 2013 11:44pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am unhappily short on GC on multiple positions.Nagative news does not help my positions. If you look at the weekly chart GC has been in channel since 2010 and 6450 is kind of topping off.To go higher GU must go higher as well. I am in real dilemma.Closed everything and take a ass spanking loss or hold on to 1.60 at least to get out.Its really stressing me now.I foolishly misjudged the strength of cable. I can tell you this from now on only trades will be in direction of trend. I am looking at E/N at 7150 for strong sell zone previous turning...
Sometimes we take a good punch right in the jaw. It happens. You may want to consider lessening your position little by little as opposed to closing it all out at once. At worst it will relieve some stress.
  • #3,997
  • Aug 22, 2013 11:47pm Aug 22, 2013 11:47pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} Hey Davit, Just seen this bro. Similar situation for me a few weeks ago with EA. I closed at a loss and the day after the damn thing turned and dropped to below what my TP was set. Backwards I went. I agree largely with what HDA has said and everything is pointing down. GBP/CAD is on the roof and has to fall off at some point soon. GBP positive data has been overplayed and from any strength is running out of legs. Im short this pair too and will be holding. Good luck to us all.

Thanks Stephane
Great to read you friend.What can I say I am humbled....No ego just humbled by the power of the market.
I will stick it out.Thanks
For what is worth G/C is in perfect harmonic sell zone
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,998
  • Aug 22, 2013 11:51pm Aug 22, 2013 11:51pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Davit: I got an e-mail about forex factory making changes to member profile so I came back to see what the changes are. I like the changes. Then I decided to read the USD/CAD thread and saw your post. Davit - you are a good guy - so I'm going to share with you what I, please note, what I consider to be stress free in terms of how to analyze trading any of the crosses. I say again - this is my way. I will be writing this in its simpliest form, so please understand, that it is not a reflection of how much I think you know and understand,...
Good post

I too like the new profile changes.
  • #3,999
  • Aug 23, 2013 2:55am Aug 23, 2013 2:55am
Quoting yaphets
it's time to go short in near future
I don't think this is going to go short very soon. If such a short trend forms, the short wouldn't be in long term.

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This is the daily chart of USDCAD. I believe it forms a closure version of Elliot Wave since the beginning of this year. So most probably it may reach 1.0606 by next week. After that it may either go up or form a down trend. I'd closely watch the H4 trend once it reaches 1.0606 to identify if it forms a downtrend.
  • #4,000
  • Aug 23, 2013 4:14am Aug 23, 2013 4:14am
Quoting Bhoopalan
{quote} I don't think this is going to go short very soon. If such a short trend forms, the short wouldn't be in long term. {image} This is the daily chart of USDCAD. I believe it forms a closure version of Elliot Wave since the beginning of this year. So most probably it may reach 1.0606 by next week. After that it may either go up or form a down trend. I'd closely watch the H4 trend once it reaches 1.0606 to identify if it forms a downtrend.
but the rsi is over 80, i think we may have some pullback
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