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Sonic R. System

  • #57,161
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:47am Aug 22, 2013 4:47am
Quoting Lucy Furr
{quote} the resistance will be suspect..... if you end up with USDJPY long PVRSA opportunities in the future (and you have patience) you could consider this... {image} shorter frames almost at target {image}
Here is an example of what I'm trying to say here. It might not be the best example, because even TAH thinks UJ as bulls, but I'm reading bears right now.

What if the price will turn around right here:
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And go all the way to here:
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Wouldn't that be exiting? Being able to see what's going on
Well... this is just a thought and I'm so unsure about UJ that I'm not going to trade it. Just sharing thoughts here and want to raise discussion
I know the secret...
  • #57,162
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:48am Aug 22, 2013 4:48am
Quoting Lucy Furr
{quote} I think simple volume analysis from Wyckoff/ Tom Williams can get you to the same place without the draw-down and histrionics. In the spirit of compromise, and to keep an open mind, let's agree to keep an eye on, say usdjpy 4h as I posted to tymedu above, and keep me informed if you see any signs of buyers on the retrace (if any), and I'll do the same, and see if their are synergies.

Haha!
Just as you posted, I did the same thing
It came to my mind to use this as an example!
I know the secret...
  • #57,163
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:56am Aug 22, 2013 4:56am
Quoting Lucy Furr
{quote} the resistance will be suspect..... if you end up with USDJPY long PVRSA opportunities in the future (and you have patience) you could consider this... {image} shorter frames almost at target {image}
Thanks Lucy for ur point of view.

That is, indeed, my idea. I really like the mid-term long in USDJPY, but I think I can build a better position in the future. If price makes a pullback I will start to build again, this time using my "new personal guideline" which will allow me to be happier about my position. However, if the price breaks the wedge (you can put a H4 chart to see it), I can simply add a single entry going for it.

A man should admit his own mistakes, and this trade wasn't good at least for me. But even with that I made money, so it's fine. I really appreciate your inputs because they are very educational and I'm learning a lot from them. Keep doing it because you will have a true follower here

Best, Tymedu.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #57,164
  • Aug 22, 2013 5:04am Aug 22, 2013 5:04am
This trade is an example of what happens when you are not sitting at your computer when it matters and also an example of bad spacing between trades. RDH has been hit so I am gonna close it with a slight profit and to gain more margin space.
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  • #57,165
  • Aug 22, 2013 5:05am Aug 22, 2013 5:05am
Quoting DmitryFX
{quote} Don't forget! PATIENCE PAID!
My patience paid off for this week ... the rest came as a welcome
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  • #57,166
  • Aug 22, 2013 5:07am Aug 22, 2013 5:07am
UJ long trade. 9 x 74 = +666 pips

I closed the trade because I suspect (PVSRA) for some time that there are BEARS, also attend several circumstances: RDH and trendline.


I'm glad I followed a control on the distance between my orders, however I have made ​​mistakes: too early entries. I also try to correct this with the highest TF PA (everything has been said in this thread over and over again).

Also reduce my DD and liberate and increase more scouts for other pairs.
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Newbie trader
  • #57,167
  • Aug 22, 2013 5:29am Aug 22, 2013 5:29am
Quoting JRissa
{quote} Here is an example of what I'm trying to say here. It might not be the best example, because even TAH thinks UJ as bulls, but I'm reading bears right now. What if the price will turn around right here: {image} And go all the way to here: {image} Wouldn't that be exiting? Being able to see what's going on Well... this is just a thought and I'm so unsure about UJ that I'm not going to trade it. Just sharing thoughts here and want to raise discussion
UJ I see high bear activity at quarter number with PVSRA.
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I know the secret...
  • #57,168
  • Aug 22, 2013 5:36am Aug 22, 2013 5:36am
Quoting JRissa
{quote} GJ comment Adjusted fork based on PA on 1h chart. PVSRA doesn't give us target points for revelsal, but still indicating MM's as bears. And the prediction with Pitchforks help for turn around point would be somewhere around ~153.75. Just playing here with omens :nerd: {image} Edit: In fact I'm seeing bear activity on UJ as well right now and it would go nicely if UJ would turn around too at somewhere around recent daily high level. Two different pitchforks formed on UJ at 1h chart {image}

GJ target reached, added scout short EP6.

Based on PVSRA, high activity at quarter number.
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I know the secret...
  • #57,169
  • Aug 22, 2013 5:46am Aug 22, 2013 5:46am
Quoting JRissa
{quote} UJ I see high bear activity at quarter number with PVSRA. {image}

I agree UJ seems to be bearish. I will not enter as I am already holding the GJ short.
  • #57,170
  • Edited 6:09am Aug 22, 2013 5:52am | Edited 6:09am
Quoting Lucy Furr
I'm glad that you have made chunky profits from PVSRA, and I hope it continues for your account, especially as you have a mortgage to fund. Unfortunately there are a couple of of technical problems with what you request, 1) I completely disagree with the statement "If PVSRA can be used to determine what is ....
PVSRA has been extraordinarily successful for a large number of novice traders but history is littered with traders and systems that blindly built positions on an averaging basis where the market just kept moving and eventually destroyed the accounts. Nick Leeson always springs to mind but then it wasn't his money and his bank account grew just fine. Are we doing this blindly? Hopefully not, it comes down to your interpretation of volumes at critical levels plus for many of us some clear evidence that a trend has ended. My own view is this is a probability game and we are seeking to stack the odds in our favour by:

  1. Looking for patterns that show buying or selling demand over a time period and ideally a trend ending pattern (rapid acceleration of trend, broken support etc)
  2. Gaining entries at extremities thereby immediately deriving an advantage over momentum traders
  3. Mitigating risk through:
    a) a diverse portfolio of holdings. The current UJ buy trend versus a number of us holding GJ and EJ shorts being an obvious case in point for the yen.
    b) trading exceptionally small
    c) taking profits out regularly

Room for improvement - yes
Lucy raises useful warning flags and I would not ignore the more constructive points raised. Critically point 4 - TAKE MONEY OUT ON REGULAR BASIS. PVSRA is an ongoing experiment and the big numbers are tempting but we should not lose sight of the fact that plenty of people have hit the buffers in terms of running out of account liquidity to ride the drawdowns and there is no upper limit on DD. The only limit is your account size so trade micro and take profits out of account regularly.

Puting aside Lucy's clear views on PVSRA which you may or may not share he (correct me if I am wrong) clearly has some pearls of wisdom that can add to our collective knowledge around how to use volume and I for one am interested to hear more. Islander and Lucy have been developing/using the three dragons approach which is more akin to the original Sonic teachings and is similar to my current intraday scalping system. What I have not yet done is integrate volume into this. Sonic clearly has this nailed but his posts are not particularly frequent or rich in explanation. So Lucy and Islander (when he drops anchor again) please share your thoughts - as ever sticking to the constructive side.

Here was how UJ played out (my entry was from earlier PVSRA so this illustrative only)

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  1. UJ clearly established uptrend with M15 showing HH and HL’s consistently
  2. Warnings of the morning trend direction from early London traders
  3. Perfect entry point: Three dragons in line and a good solid up bar with higher volume
  4. Another entry point, good solid up bar, bigger volume, dragons lining up. All stops below SL2 then moving up with the ride. Looking for trend end signs to take profit manually.

EDIT:

Profit taken: possibly too early but time is up for me and enough evidence of at least a pause and I do not want to get greedy!

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Last Post script - Do not under any circumcustances ever mix the two systems up (as I did) by enterring a scalp then pretending its a PVSRA entry. That one cost me 150 pips this week on GJ and EJ. AAAAARRRRGH!
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #57,171
  • Edited 6:42am Aug 22, 2013 6:27am | Edited 6:42am
Hello,

USD/JPY
Morgan Stanley opened 20 Aug long USD / JPY in the strategy close to the 97 yen per dollar. Stop loss is at 95.75 and the target is 106.
(source) - sorry polish page, translator needed.

Oanda clouds confirms usd/jpy two-stage long postion building.
I'm not neutral, still i have 2 scouts long.

GBP/JPY - bad news, i have too many scouts, clouds show that this is not the end way up.
Maybe Friday will be a good day to rebuild short position.
Crazy pair.
Attachment - historic gbp/jpy raid 156.70
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  • #57,172
  • Aug 22, 2013 6:35am Aug 22, 2013 6:35am
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} 14 hrs later.. Told Cha.. Sonic {image} {image}

Hi Sonic. Congrats on yr successful trade. Could you explain a little bit more detail why you decide to enter at that price?

Thanks!

Alpe
  • #57,173
  • Edited 6:59am Aug 22, 2013 6:40am | Edited 6:59am
Quoting Lucy Furr
I'm glad that you have made chunky profits from PVSRA, and I hope it continues for your account, especially as you have a mortgage to fund. Unfortunately there are a couple of of technical problems with what you request, 1) I completely disagree with the statement "If PVSRA can be used to determine what is happening with big buyers/sellers (MM's) with their plans on next big move". It doesn't. It's just a glorified averaging framework that will eventually always work if your have deep pockets, and trade in fractional amounts.If you don't have...
So you are telling you have worked in big institution or bank.
Do these banks and institutions used your methods. You are telling horror stories, how to loose house, some of them lost quite bigger house.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_trading_losses

Some brokers can just take your money MF-Global and PFG, you never know when car hit you.
Thats good you tell people to harvest and withdraw money

There was difficult situation during feb-march 2013 when GBPUSD was going DOWN, and BOE and Ratings agencies and politics just shouted more more more.
Not need to use 2007 Lehman example, what every politics are using reason for global mess.

Its your style to trade using one bullet of time, and try to shoot mozzarella buffalos, and let them run over. if not hit.
Your never know where is top or bottom. Some people use different style enter and exit trades.
PVSRA is not entry or exit method.

Here is simple "example". finding million little things what happend in markets.

Inserted Video
  • #57,174
  • Aug 22, 2013 6:40am Aug 22, 2013 6:40am
Quoting JRissa
{quote} Here is an example of what I'm trying to say here. It might not be the best example, because even TAH thinks UJ as bulls, but I'm reading bears right now. What if the price will turn around right here: {image} And go all the way to here: {image} Wouldn't that be exiting? Being able to see what's going on Well... this is just a thought and I'm so unsure about UJ that I'm not going to trade it. Just sharing thoughts here and want to raise discussion
I'm also selling UJ at 98.60
  • #57,175
  • Aug 22, 2013 7:18am Aug 22, 2013 7:18am
Quoting Lucy Furr
I'm glad that you have made chunky profits from PVSRA, and I hope it continues for your account, especially as you have a mortgage to fund. Unfortunately there are a couple of of technical problems with what you request, 1) I completely disagree with the statement "If PVSRA can be used to determine what is happening with big buyers/sellers (MM's) with their plans on next big move". It doesn't. It's just a glorified averaging framework that will eventually always work if your have deep pockets, and trade in fractional amounts.If you don't have...
Thank you Lucy Furr, very informative and intelligent posts...please continue I know nobody has the slightest interest in what I might have to say however, your point no.2 quote...

"Now if you are talking about the big boys wanting to push the market around, for example wanting to sell gbpusd 200 pips higher (maybe they know there are stops up there, or see the market has gone down to far and want to squeeze out the johnny-come-lately shorts) than where it is now and start to drive the market higher, then why don't you ride it up with them. To have TAH say the market is bearish while it rallies up 5 big figures just defies logic. You could have been riding the market up as well as down. This is my biggest issue with PVSRA. It just doesn't read the intent correctly, or it's been applied incorrectly. Why fight the big dogs, when you can be in their pack?

I obviously came across all wrong (unlike you) but this was in essence what I was trying to convey
  • #57,176
  • Aug 22, 2013 7:19am Aug 22, 2013 7:19am
Quoting fex
UJ long trade. 9 x 74 = +666 pips
Lovely..

Inserted Video


Sonic
  • #57,177
  • Aug 22, 2013 7:33am Aug 22, 2013 7:33am
I'm starting to build a short EURJPY position.

My plan from now on is:

  1. To detect if MMs are bulls or bears
  2. To wait for a nice structure in H1 (candle pattern, double top/bottom, etc etc)
  3. Never add more than 3 scouts in the first 100 pips

So I started here with a first scout after a pinbar in H1 with nice volume. My second scout if needed will be in the horizontal line, which is an important resistance. However, if the price goes south, I will add my second order if there is a trend reversal and I'll go with the trend. I think this is a good "neutral" point to start building because MMs showed bears multiple times.

Best, Tymedu.

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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #57,178
  • Aug 22, 2013 7:45am Aug 22, 2013 7:45am
Quoting wingate
{quote} Thank you Lucy Furr, very informative and intelligent posts...please continue I know nobody has the slightest interest in what I might have to say however, your point no.2 quote... "Now if you are talking about the big boys wanting to push the market around, for example wanting to sell gbpusd 200 pips higher (maybe they know there are stops up there, or see the market has gone down to far and want to squeeze out the johnny-come-lately shorts) than where it is now and start to drive the market higher, then why don't you ride it...
That's where you are wrong, wingate. Some of us DO care about what you have to say,
IF you present it in a non-attacking fashion. That's all we ask of you, or anybody.

Both you and Lucy Furr present valid information for the thread. Everyone can absorb it,
and use it as they see fit. I say, keep the information flowing.

Lucy Furr mentioned LTCM, and that struck a chord with me. I have read the book, and
thoroughly enjoyed it. It presents an important message to us all.

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000FC1KZC/ref=r_soa_w_d

That's a link to it on Amazon if anyone is interested.

Also, here is a youtube video about it.

Inserted Video


I believe most of us who have spent some time in the Forex world are
aware of the hazards. We don't need to have it preached to us, if you
know what I mean. We just need to all contribute info here that can
be useful to everyone. If that happens, we ALL win!

  • #57,179
  • Aug 22, 2013 7:47am Aug 22, 2013 7:47am
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} Lovely.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qe4P_vCYROg Sonic

Inserted Video
Newbie trader
  • #57,180
  • Edited 9:44am Aug 22, 2013 8:02am | Edited 9:44am
Update analysis and visualization Changes

EU http://wp.me/p3N6R9-mX

GU http://wp.me/p3N6R9-nb

UJ http://wp.me/p3N6R9-nj
500euroalgiorno.wordpress com
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