Sonic R. System

GJ added scouts EP4 & EP5 short.
Based on PVSRA on 1min chart.

Pitchfork experiment ongoing. 15m channel spotted and PA at channel extension with heavy selling based on PVSRA

GA short scout EP1

Based on PVSRA on 1min chart + spotted 1h pitchfork channel (experiment)

USDCHF
No additional entries. Just an update about pitchfork experiment for placing scouts -> possible 1h channel with loudspeaker spotted

AU New Short Trade:

Added short Scout #2, as price dropped thru local support and pulled back up to it. Adjusted TP.
Edit: (pics. 2 & 3)
Added short Scout #3, as price retraced the move down 50%.
Added short Scout #4, as price retraced the move down 62%.
Added short Scout #5, as price retraced the move down 79%. Adjusted TP.

Yesterday I thought about Pitchwork.

I think that it is the good idea.

you're on the right track....Dr Andrews would be proud... become a bit more circumspect with your entries, rather than blindly entering, understand your pivots a bit better, and you will be a cash register...

Thanks!
I have a though to throw in the air here oldtimer

You have criticized PVSRA entries here and you seem to have lot of experience with trading and analysis, based on your posts. What if you would also be bit more open minded with ongoing PVSRA developement here and try to throw your spoon to soup also;

If PVSRA can be used to determine what is happening with big buyers/sellers (MM's) with their plans on next big move, then can it be possible to apply this information to seek for next potential setup forming in, let's say for example Andrews Pitchfork (as I have understood is your most used method)?

You know, something new, something old, something borrowed, as in weddings

So far the price has always gone to direction that PVSRA has shown and enough to get to the profit side of trade. I'm not saying that PVSRA is bullet proof, as it's fairly new thing introduced by Professor TAH here, but I'm saying it hasn't been trapping us on wrong side of trade YET! And I have to say I'm very confident about PVSRA at this point and will trade according PVSRA in future also. My history with PVSRA started early this year together with Professor TAH. In first three weeks I managed to grow my live account from 100€ to 1031€ with only PVSRA entries. After that, the same way has continued and I was happy to withdraw huge amount of cash (for me) from my trading account at the start of my vacation three months ago and used this cash to help me renovating my new house. So now I'm starting to build equity once again from 200€, that I left at my trading account. I must say, that I'm more that happy with PVSRA already even if I would lose with too big positions right now (started trading bit too heavily right now, cause 200€ won't go very far even with microlots), because I have already earned tens of times the money that I have put in my trading account And I must say that all thanks for this goes to Sonicdeejay and TAH.

So hop on and place your spoon to soup too! Try to apply PVSRA in your trading plans and see what happens!

Well this old timer has to go to sea today, but LF's post yesterday did make me think a bit ......and I guess that another thinker - JR - did so too

EJ comment.

With PVSRA continuing to show MM's as sellers, one possible scenario/pattern formed with aid of Andrews pichfork.

I'm already building short position on GJ, so I'm out of EJ trade. So just for heads up!

At first, I thought your agenda was to inform everyone here of the dangers associated
with "averaging down," but I have finally come to the realization that is not your
primary purpose for being here almost everyday.

It is obvious now that you are here as a result of your compelling need to be right,
and to prove tah wrong.

I honestly don't understand why you choose to waste your time doing so. You
rarely, if ever, post anything here of value to us all. Initially, there was a lot of
talk about posting Classic Sonic R trades that never seemed to materialize. Now,
the only thing you offer us is snide remarks aimed solely at tah, and it has reallly
grown tiresome. Sure, I could put you on ignore, but that shouldn't be necessary.

Give up the childish banter, and go apply your time and effort the the thread you
started. You seem to spend more time here than there.

If you do have something to say, try saying it in the manner of Lucy Furr. At least
he presents his arguments in a non-accusing manner. We can decide the value of
it without being told "I'm always right, and you're always wrong."

Please, give it a break.

JRissa do you use some indicator for Pichfork's or you just draw the trend lines? I read from FF that some guy is using fibo channel for that.

MT4 has a drawing tool for Pichfork's. You just must add it to the toolbar.

Just drawing those on charts by hand. Pitchfork is all new to me. Just thought to give it some testing with PVSRA after I understood from Lucy Furr's post that it was method he has been relying on.

Just trying to find new ways with PVSRA to get better positions with less DD.

Hi All,

This is my first post, but I've been following this forum for about a month. I'd read the PVSRA.pdf by TAH and was trying to make it work in my account. And this is what I've got so far:

6 S positions on EU, 2987 pips earned!!
Thank you All!

GJ comment

Adjusted fork based on PA on 1h chart.

PVSRA doesn't give us target points for revelsal, but still indicating MM's as bears.

And the prediction with Pitchforks help for turn around point would be somewhere around ~153.75.

Just playing here with omens :nerd:


Edit:
In fact I'm seeing bear activity on UJ as well right now and it would go nicely if UJ would turn around too at somewhere around recent daily high level.
Two different pitchforks formed on UJ at 1h chart

UJ

Closed my 16 longs for 1050 pips (around 3%)

Reasons:

1. We are entering in a problematic zone (98.5-99)
2. We are in a previous resistance
3. Not proud about my position building

I will probably start to build longs again if the price makes a pullback, but due the current situation with so many orders in EU/GU I think it's nice to harvest a little bit. I'm not very proud of this trade because the RR ratio wasn't good but... profit is profit.

Best, Tymedu.

I'm glad that you have made chunky profits from PVSRA, and I hope it continues for your account, especially as you have a mortgage to fund.

Unfortunately there are a couple of of technical problems with what you request,

1) I completely disagree with the statement "If PVSRA can be used to determine what is happening with big buyers/sellers (MM's) with their plans on next big move". It doesn't. It's just a glorified averaging framework that will eventually always work if your have deep pockets, and trade in fractional amounts.If you don't have deep pockets, then at some time those trousers will probably be your only belonging. The big players in MM can just pick up the phone and buy or sell 100 Mio $ in one hit with their clearer for around a 5~7 pip spread (depending on time zone). The liquidity in FX especially during London time is huge so they don't need to fluff around with PVSRA. The bigger players 500m+ will just go direct to a central bank to do their business. Yes, eventually, it feeds down through the liquidity chain but not as PVSRA reads it.

2) Now if you are talking about the big boys wanting to push the market around, for example wanting to sell gbpusd 200 pips higher (maybe they know there are stops up there, or see the market has gone down to far and want to squeeze out the johnny-come-lately shorts) than where it is now and start to drive the market higher, then why don't you ride it up with them. To have TAH say the market is bearish while it rallies up 5 big figures just defies logic. You could have been riding the market up as well as down. This is my biggest issue with PVSRA. It just doesn't read the intent correctly, or it's been applied incorrectly. Why fight the big dogs, when you can be in their pack?


3) I don't average. If I don't have confidence in a trade I don't enter. Simple, no dipping a toe in the water, no scouts, I'm just all in. I don't care if I get stopped. If you can't handle to take a loss you shouldn't be trading, sorry to be blunt. If you don't know how to accept and handle a loss and move on, not take it personally like your leader, then the markets can be a sad and sorry place. Imagine applying PVSRA to say, Lehmans share price in 2007, and not having a s/l in place, just averaging down, and down, and down. This is the weakness of averaging. I sincerely hope it never happens to you, especially when you grow your account. It's ok to lose 200$, but what if it's 200,000$ that has been created over time, and then the unthinkable happens. Your house then becomes available for creditors.

4) Go and google Long Term Capital Management (the greatest oxymoron name in finance), or anything about the CDO market, that couldn't fail because house prices always went up in America, and ask them how they felt about averaging. I don't care if PVSRA has 2 months or 20 years of 'no losses' because they eventually will come. You only need one event. So if you make a chunk of cash, bank 50%, and then start again. Don't just try and build the biggest account, always harvest it. You should be able to build a nice second income, if you keep taking money out.

5) I have patience to wait for my levels. PVSRA encourages trading too early without a framework (guesswork of a 'guru' doesn't count) and then it's TP is completely arbitrary simply based on what is your average price when it finally turns, and praying that price can get to b/e and then a few pips to show a positive result. We then have a '5000 pip positive trade' , which is actually deceitful, because they are only micro-pips, and it's impossible to quantify your risk except to say ' versus your entire account'. I get that you're new, and want to make money, and feel the need to be 'in the market' to take advantage of a possible move. But having no position is also a trade.

6) Now I ask you which would you prefer,
a) to have 30 tiny positions in gbpusd at an average of say 1.5630, after watching it go against you for a week or so, never knowing when it will stop, or will I have enough margin in my account, or,
b) single position, with a manageable stop loss, a reason RR for your efforts, now at b/e? The only problem you have now is how to manage the trade.

7) There is a time and place for volume analysis, and it's used with relation to background prices, not just "big MM's always place their orders at 1/4, 1/2, round numbers so therefore they are doing X". That's just lazy nonsense.

8) I always use stops.

9), So if you're going to use PVSRA, please don't use it in isolation, at least find a more macro method that you can find synergies with and combine with the micro PVSRA. Pitchforks will be a useful tool for finding logical profit targets. My only concern for you is if that target is not inside your breakeven point. Go and spend some time in the VSA pages, or read Wyckoff/ Tom Williams 'Mastering the Market' who will describe how the real smart money operates, so that you can correctly read the bars showing buyers and sellers with volume, and the most important one which Tah conveniently forgets, or is negligent with "Pushing up through Supply". Understanding this simple concept would have saved on some silly sell entries in the eurusd recently

So apart form the above minor technical points how can I help? I'm expect that I shall be eating my soup with a spoon alone in relation to PVSRA! I don't see where or how it can help me. I wont feel bad if you want to add me to the growing list of people that have already got me on 'ignore', you will be amongst many.

Thank you for this long, educating post.
I have already read what you suggested, but I'm the kind of person who likes to turn every rock, so I'm always in way of doing things better next time and for me; there's no absolute truth in anything. I think that everything evolves.

The way I thought you can help with this experiment was, that if we could know with PVSRA what's happening with these large traders, we could use this information to scout for high potential channel changes/starts.

This just doesn't work, if you are all against PVSRA, but let me remind you about PVSRA that it's a method of Analysis, not the way to trade. So PVSRA doesn't need to mean position building, but way to seek for new high potential setups. Many people here have the presumption of PVSRA that it needs the averaging down to be done. It doesn't. It can reveal the setups that will be going long trip to the way PVSRA shows.

Just think about, for example these fork setups, which would be nearly 100% sure to come out right. One can always use SL and profit target that one is comfortable with, but the most important thing on forex market, to me atleast, is the timing. I'm certain that PVSRA combined with PA pattern knowledge could be the nearest thing to "Holy Grail".

the resistance will be suspect.....

if you end up with USDJPY long PVRSA opportunities in the future (and you have patience) you could consider this...



shorter frames almost at target

I think simple volume analysis from Wyckoff/ Tom Williams can get you to the same place without the draw-down and histrionics.

In the spirit of compromise, and to keep an open mind, let's agree to keep an eye on, say usdjpy 4h as I posted to tymedu above, and keep me informed if you see any signs of buyers on the retrace (if any), and I'll do the same, and see if their are synergies.