EURUSD Exclusive | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

Need to secure a given amount using a forex option. Is this exclusive of forex houses 3 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD Exclusive
Exit Attachments

EURUSD Exclusive

  • #41
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:18am Aug 20, 2013 5:18am
Quoting timos
The chart speaks better {image}
Looks like you have a handle on it.
  • #42
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:42am Aug 20, 2013 5:42am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} It says you are a new member. Let me suggest you keep your lot size so tiny that you are bored, until you see a pattern of wins and losses that is definitively a gain. Then you will naturally say "If Only I traded larger, I would have made some real money". So you go just a teen tiny bit larger, still enough so that you could carry the trade for a year, waiting for it to come back into gain. When you get the same pattern, repeat the cycle. Try to get to the point that you are making happy money without having to resort to stop losses....
A lot of thanks. Yes, i will definitely keep it in my mind. And you right, till now, my pattern is still a losing one.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #43
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:27am Aug 20, 2013 6:27am
We have been treated to a real breakout, preceded by two false ones. Note:
1.They are all in the same direction
2. the direction is that of the preceding large move
3. there is classic hesitation and continuance in the real move. Hesitation and reversal marks the false breakout. (Play the continuance or just hang on)
4. (caution, a shooting star is not a false breakout, but an indication the break may well go the other way).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ffreal.jpg Size: 40 KB
  • #44
  • Aug 20, 2013 11:19am Aug 20, 2013 11:19am
Okay here is what I have done.
I ran a fibonacci retracement from this move and one form the last move up. I found the 50% level of the small fibo and the 23% level of the large fibo coincide pretty close. That's a point. I put a Sell stop there with a take profit in 9 pips down from that (okay on my charts that's a sell stop at 1.33900 tp at 1.33810 ( could be different on your charts)).

I dropped down a few pips to give trace a chance to turn higher without snagging my next Sell Stop (yes, it actually occasionally works) and took another 9 pips lower take profit. (why 9 pips? long story Any body interested?)

That leaves me a little above the consolidation mess we just exited.
Trace can move through that if it wants, I'm not interested in the whipsaw at this time.
When it comes out below(if it does so before I change things), there are sell stops waiting below that.
If we get there I am fairly confident of a solid move down and have my sell stops overlapping. I take the money and run, with a good chance of getting stuck with only a small losing position. All of this can change if I see things differently and all sell stops will get wiped out Friday around 3 pm EST.

My lot sizes are teeny but I am very active with them when the market comes my way. I truly believe I can make good money this way.
Yes having no stop losses in worrisome and needs attention. But I can close trades at a loss around tax time and get "subsidized" by the government.
Been at it for a couple of years now. Surviving long enough to get better at it. I will let you know if I give up, so you can be warned not to do the same.
  • #45
  • Aug 21, 2013 2:12am Aug 21, 2013 2:12am
Like the thread, eurusd is a mess.

So euro talk only From my point of view we all are getting traped in a long run, the fact is i dont like the crowd thinking and everybody now is talking 1,37 here 1,37 there. I think yesterday was just a big pump and orders hunting move. Volume on up days decreasing not to tell that yesterday was second biggest move in like 3 weeks and volume was falling. I see that around 1,32 after FOMC maybe less.

But one never know so im gonna just trust my instincts becasue i have shorts from 1,33 Today ll shoe the meaning of past movements
  • #46
  • Aug 21, 2013 2:52am Aug 21, 2013 2:52am
Quoting Alex2222
eur usd We can see an ab=cd harmonic pattern in the H1 TF. We expect a decline for the price if supply pressure shows up. This comment would be violated if 1.3460 level being broken above. http://www.fexmarket.com/Analysis/Technical-Analysis {image}
We come very close to release of US Housing news. Judging from monthly data, it looks like it will give strength to US, so we can have continuation for selling pressure of euro. Its only my opinion. And i am agree with you Alex. If it break 1.3460 again.. i will long my position.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #47
  • Aug 21, 2013 3:49am Aug 21, 2013 3:49am
Shortly before 7a.m. e.s.t. we are headed down into housing report, returning to the mean at ,Oh, I guess 1.336XX We shall dawdle there if not before, and await the news (I think as an excuse to go further down). So far this day this bear is making money( please ignore yesterday). I look for a tepid drop, and not very far, to , say, 1.33xxx
  • #48
  • Edited 5:43am Aug 21, 2013 4:28am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting Silat50
....
In the world of stocks one big solid candle with high volume is almost always confirming direction for either the rest of the day or at least the next bar unlerss the volume is sooooo rediculously high they climaxed it in one bar. This doesnt happen much in Forex, especially eur/usd. And the truth where we are handicapped again is the eur/usd doesnt get meaningful action til around 8-8:30 am because thats when the stockmarket futures volume gets very heavy. So until 8am the direction is often meaningless. TRADERS CANNOT SURVIVE WHEN THE INFO...
About stocks, what point are you trying to make? Obviously Forex is a different market, if you don't like, don't trade it, but why complaining about it on a Forex forum ?

About JPY, I don't really know what are you talking about. In the last months of '12, the Japanese party that eventually won the elections, said that if they were to win, they would have strongly devaluated the currency. They won, and and they did exactly that. Who just happened to believe their promises has made huge gains. There was nothing to guess, no grinding, no wicks and no tails. Show me a stock where something like that can happen.
  • #49
  • Edited 6:33am Aug 21, 2013 4:35am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} It says you are a new member. Let me suggest you keep your lot size so tiny that you are bored, until you see a pattern of wins and losses that is definitively a gain. Then you will naturally say "If Only I traded larger, I would have made some real money". So you go just a teen tiny bit larger, still enough so that you could carry the trade for a year, waiting for it to come back into gain. When you get the same pattern, repeat the cycle. Try to get to the point that you are making happy money without having to resort to stop losses....
Not sure how sound is your advice to a new trader: "Hold to unrealized losses with capital" , and deal with the consequences, this is my addition.

Each one can think differently on how to trade, but if you says something that is so drastically against the "golden rules", at least add: "That is my opinion only".
  • #50
  • Aug 21, 2013 4:45am Aug 21, 2013 4:45am
Quoting Rap Skallion
Shortly before 7a.m. e.s.t. we are headed down into housing report, returning to the mean at ,Oh, I guess 1.336XX We shall dawdle there if not before, and await the news (I think as an excuse to go further down). So far this day this bear is making money( please ignore yesterday). I look for a tepid drop, and not very far, to , say, 1.33xxx
Agree, an excuse the market need, anyway I am short from 1.3418 earlier SL 1.3410 (moved after GBP news). Hope its not a bad SL point (again). What i am afraid of, if the market whipsaw around the news. That will wipe most of us, small player. Anyone thinking if it is wiser to stay out from the water, and wait up AFTER the news?
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #51
  • Aug 21, 2013 6:30am Aug 21, 2013 6:30am
Quoting Paz
{quote} Not sure how sound is your advice to a new trader: "Hold to unrealized losses with capital" , all dealt the consequences, this is my addition. Each one can think differently on how to trade, but if you says something that is so drastically against the "golder rules", at least add: - "That is my opinion only".
I stand corrected. You have reached the point of the problem of a small trader as I see it. I am trying to trade small, so that lack of stop loss do not hurt me.
Is this the best decision? Many think otherwise. However some studies show that better results are obtained in a portfolio if stop losses are not installed.
I do not see how you can make decent money trading just one instrument.
Others trade large with stop losses installed. It is very difficult to me to see my balances whittled away in an unplanned manner.

Anyway starting small is sound advice. I can (and have) gone as low as a penny a pip per trade. I admit that trading that small incurs a boredom factor. Down there you can survive whilst deciding which stop loss strategies, which entry strategies which take profit strategies are best for you. I am a firm believer that if you cannot trade relaxed, you are doing something wrong.

So the advice should read trade so small that you CAN hold to unrealized losses with capital. I did not intend to give advice against or for stop losses, when and where to place them , etc. Be aware Your broker likes stop losses, because if you are out of the market, you have to get back in to trade, and that is when he makes his money.
Thank you for your apt observation.
  • #52
  • Edited 8:19am Aug 21, 2013 6:40am | Edited 8:19am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} I stand corrected. You have reached the point of the problem of a small trader as I see it...
I see what you mean, thank you for the clarification. I may be sensitive to stop losses discussion, because reviewing my past performances I found that by adhering to strict stops I would have made about as twice the profit I still made.

I also think that some brokers like stops for reasons different from urging you to trade again, but that discussion would be digressing.

Now for the EURUSD today, weak EUR, scalped short, it worked. But I retain the most caution about it.
  • #53
  • Aug 21, 2013 7:02am Aug 21, 2013 7:02am
Quoting Paz
{quote} Now for the EURUSD today, weak EUR, scalped short, it worked. But I retain the most caution to it.
agreed.
  • #54
  • Aug 21, 2013 7:32am Aug 21, 2013 7:32am
My personal opinion: 1.34xx is a better region to short. But I will prefer after FOMC later to make decision and make trade according to my charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm15.png Size: 57 KB
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #55
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:38am Aug 21, 2013 8:38am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Agree, an excuse the market need, anyway I am short from 1.3418 earlier SL 1.3410 (moved after GBP news). Hope its not a bad SL point (again). What i am afraid of, if the market whipsaw around the news. That will wipe most of us, small player. Anyone thinking if it is wiser to stay out from the water, and wait up AFTER the news?
Move my stop to 1.3385. Now only FOMC news remain, my opinion, since this meeting minute take place before today. I doubt we will see any hint that fed will clearly tapering. Please correct me if i am wrong, that means we are going to see 1.32xx level or even 1.30xx level (?) I still bearish bias, but i have wronged, so many-many times.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #56
  • Aug 21, 2013 9:16am Aug 21, 2013 9:16am
im long from 3360 with huge buy limits at 3330 and 3310/3300 area

but honestly... anything can happen with FOMC, despite technicals still being bullish.



however i wouldn't rule a move to 3210 out... not this week, but next week.

but honestly 3300 should be a tough nut to crack


this made me laugh
Attached Image
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #57
  • Aug 21, 2013 9:20am Aug 21, 2013 9:20am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Move my stop to 1.3385. Now only FOMC news remain, my opinion, since this meeting minute take place before today. I doubt we will see any hint that fed will clearly tapering. Please correct me if i am wrong, that means we are going to see 1.32xx level or even 1.30xx level (?) I still bearish bias, but i have wronged, so many-many times.
I see that around 1,32 close too maybe 1,326 could be reasonable. But in total i see that 1,31 at least is possible this week. But maybe me and in this case you are wrong. Im holding my shorts through FOMC so lets hope we are right
  • #58
  • Aug 21, 2013 9:39am Aug 21, 2013 9:39am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Move my stop to 1.3385. Now only FOMC news remain, my opinion, since this meeting minute take place before today. I doubt we will see any hint that fed will clearly tapering. Please correct me if i am wrong, that means we are going to see 1.32xx level or even 1.30xx level (?) I still bearish bias, but i have wronged, so many-many times.
Hi, I agree with the bearish bias, though I still have the stop a long way back as FOMC could be the excuse needed for a final clearout of stops over 35 & higher. It's just a possibility (like everything in fx) before what I feel is the inevitable move towards 32, 30 & beyond (for me the fundamentals indicate this). I see some areas of resistance before 32 but I don't think there's enough demand there to stop the drop for too long, though I'm talking months, not the next 2 weeks. But like all fx predictions, it's all just conjecture at this point, we'll probably all be wiped out in the next 3 hours!
  • #59
  • Aug 21, 2013 9:57am Aug 21, 2013 9:57am
Quoting iigis
{quote} I see that around 1,32 close too maybe 1,326 could be reasonable. But in total i see that 1,31 at least is possible this week. But maybe me and in this case you are wrong. Im holding my shorts through FOMC so lets hope we are right
3330 (somewhere around there, not looking at charts now) is the weekly open.. we are still above

if we were to reverse and go down to those levels this week, that would be the nastiest doji i have ever seen.

good luck to your shorts i believe they could play out but maybe not this week, but going to 1.32xx next week seems possible definitely
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #60
  • Aug 21, 2013 10:01am Aug 21, 2013 10:01am
Can we keep discussion about anything other than EURUSD and USDx out of this thread please?

I can see USDx heading to 81.75.. putting EURUSD back around 1.32 zone
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
3 traders viewing now