Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 64 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,261
  • Edited 8:02pm Aug 21, 2013 6:11am | Edited 8:02pm
Quoting elliotrader
hi alfonso! great thread going on here.. i wonder if i can get your input regarding the sp charts. basically my main Q is if the daily zone i marked is a valid zone to look for some bulls strength or is it just a speed bump on the bears way further down? (bc recent high is all time high and not a reaction to any zone on the left im a bit hestiant to say that the trend has switched to downtrend on HTF ,also no real demand has yet to be broken..thats basically why im still not sure i can treat it as a speed bump ) if bears do over come this area,are...
Hello Elliot,
I don't trade that kind of patterns. I mean, I don't look at past supply becoming possible support for a demand area. I don't take entries like that. I know some people are doing that, I am not.

If on that area of historic supply there is a new imbalance to the buy side with brand new demand absorbing previous supply, then I will think of going long, else I won't. This is just "my way", there are many other ways. I try to keep it as simple as possible.

In fact I am short on S&P Mini from yesterday, but I was not available after NY Open to comment on your message sorry. I had planned a short at the top speedbump supply on H4, but it dropped like a rock and no pullback.

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,262
  • Edited 8:02pm Aug 21, 2013 6:18am | Edited 8:02pm
Quoting empresswa29
Regarding your latest webinar and on the AUD/USD of the weekly chart, I notice your demand zone is highlighted in grey and why is it not the blue area as this is the zone that violated previous supply? You also mentioned about the weekly supply zone which I have highlighted in green unfilled box. Is it a valid supply zone as it has not absorbed any demand zone yet. {image}
Hi there and welcome to the thread!

The weekly demand area on AUDUSD was and is in grey because it was hit on departure, so it's not fresh. Take a look at the attached chart.
Alfonso

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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 139 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,263
  • Edited 8:02pm Aug 21, 2013 6:19am | Edited 8:02pm
Quoting mfinab
Hi traders, Anyone is watching this Daily GBPUSD Chart? {image} USD Index {image}
I am watching the GBPUSD D1 chart Mfinab, I want to be a seller up there on the H4 supply zone within that D1 supply!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,264
  • Aug 21, 2013 6:29am Aug 21, 2013 6:29am
Quoting sebkor6
Hi, attached aud chf We are in the weekly demand area. There is also demand (new) area on daily. H1 gave me a confirmation. Let's see if it will work. {image} {image} {image}
like it

i changed take profit level, according to daily supply.
Let's see if the price will get it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchfdaily.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audchfh1.png Size: 33 KB
  • #1,265
  • Aug 21, 2013 6:37am Aug 21, 2013 6:37am
Quoting panoramia
Boby, I told Peter about the timeframe combination above: Concentrate on one timeframe combination only. Either D1/H1, WK/H4, or MN/D1. It all depends on which kind of trader you are. Normally withing a WK SD area there will be D1 SD areas. So concentrate on 2 timeframes, choose the combo you like the most. D1/H1 for intra-swing trading, and WK/H4 for longer term swing trading, and don't even look at the other charts. Hide the timeframe buttons you are not going to use on Metatrader, and only be aware of those you choose, that's all. You will see...

Ok, thank you Alfonso! I understand now the reason. Sometimes i overanalize the market and my head is like crazy! I have now only D1/H1 for intraday for 8 pairs and H1/M5 for EURUSD and USDJPY. I do sometimes ,,very intraday'' trading!
  • #1,266
  • Edited 8:02pm Aug 21, 2013 6:48am | Edited 8:02pm
Quoting ashtrader
Hi Alphonso, Regarding the nzdusd, did you first wait for the trendline to break, and now wait for pullbacks . Am i making sense. On the daily around 0.81647 was a level around 25-27 may. now it formed a nice reversal candle, after that i took the short. There was also a level around 30/7/13 although it wasnt fresh. Lastly on 13 aug we had a DBR , did anyone try a long there , according to you are we low on the curve. Personally I am dollar bullish , so I ignored the long. I need to learn to keep my views away from trading and just trade the charts...
Hello Ash!

It's difficult to tell you without a chart, I mean, if you make some comments on prices, can you please attach the chart you are referring to and add some notes on top of it? It's much more difficult to read you and then look for prices on the charts. Many times I am on my mobile and I don't have access to the charts on my mobile (nor do I want to).

An image is word a thousand words, so please use Jing or any other software to capture the chart and add some notes/arrows. It will be much quicker to answer. I can't go and look at aug 13, then 25-27 may, it takes just too much time sorry

Same for everybody, I believe it´s logical. Time is precious!


Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,267
  • Aug 21, 2013 7:15am Aug 21, 2013 7:15am
It looks like a nice area to go long at on AUDCHF Sebastian, congratulations.

I am not trading that currency pair right now, limited my swing pairs to 15 for now, and I had to remove that one because it's similar to others I have.

Alfonso

Quoting sebkor6
{quote} like it i changed take profit level, according to daily supply. Let's see if the price will get it. {image} {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,268
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:35am Aug 21, 2013 8:35am
Hello Axlz, I am still having problem in installing the EA. I downloaded it from http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428268

I paste the file to Experts folder of the MT4 in the C drive. Then I launched my platform and looked for the EA in the navigator pane. The rectangle extender EA is available when I click on the Plus sign. The problem is I could not drag it onto one of my charts on the platform, needless to say adjusting the settings. I do not think I am doing it right. Would appreaciate for a more detailed steps of installing the EA.

I am new to forex trading




Quoting Axlz
{quote} Right click and go to the indicator list. Select the rectangle indicator, and make sure all timeframes are selected. I had a problem where the default would not shower higher TF.
Enter Signature
  • #1,269
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:39am Aug 21, 2013 8:39am
Quoting empresswa29
Hello Axlz, I am still having problem in installing the EA. I downloaded it from http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428268 I paste the file to Experts folder of the MT4 in the C drive. Then I launched my platform and looked for the EA in the navigator pane. The rectangle extender EA is available when I click on the Plus sign. The problem is I could not drag it onto one of my charts on the platform, needless to say adjusting the settings. I do not think I am doing it right. Would appreaciate for a more detailed steps of installing...
What do you mean EA? Its an indicator that is supposed to be in the indicator folder, which is located in the experts folder.

Custom Indicators > Select it.
  • #1,270
  • Edited 8:01pm Aug 21, 2013 8:39am | Edited 8:01pm
Quoting alexx90
Hi, GBPUSD price reaches Weekly demand area. Imagine that it's live, where would you take long trade? This is H4. {image} Alessandro
Hi Alessandro!

I just had access to your H4 chart, but knowing that down below we have Weekly supply, these are the trades that would have been available on H4, always in hindsight, but being strict as per the rules.

  1. 3 H4 demand levels were valid, but no pullback happened
  2. 1 loss, or maybe a second loss on that yellow area on the right side. I was trying to buy the pound at that time and I skipped that level for that reason I explain
  3. 2 winners

We were not allowed to sell, only to buy because we were very low in the curve.
Hope that helps you!
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 137 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,271
  • Edited 8:01pm Aug 21, 2013 8:42am | Edited 8:01pm
Quoting empresswa29
Hello Axlz, I am still having problem in installing the EA. I downloaded it from http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428268 I paste the file to Experts folder of the MT4 in the C drive. Then I launched my platform and looked for the EA in the navigator pane. The rectangle extender EA is available when I click on the Plus sign. The problem is I could not drag it onto one of my charts on the platform, needless to say adjusting the settings. I do not think I am doing it right. Would appreaciate for a more detailed steps of installing...
For some people installation of new indicators is obvious but sometimes it's not that obvious for many others, which is comprehensible.

Watch this video on how to install an indicator. The same applies for the libraries and templates on the .zip file you downloaded from 1st post!
Alfonso
Inserted Video
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,272
  • Aug 21, 2013 9:18am Aug 21, 2013 9:18am
Quoting panoramia
Hello Ash! It's difficult to tell you without a chart, I mean, if you make some comments on prices, can you please attach the chart you are referring to and add some notes on top of it? It's much more difficult to read you and then look for prices on the charts. Many times I am on my mobile and I don't have access to the charts on my mobile (nor do I want to). An image is word a thousand words, so please use Jing or any other software to capture the chart and add some notes/arrows. It will be much quicker to answer. I can't go and look at aug 13,...
Hi Alphonso,

Regarding the nzdusd, did you first wait for the trendline to break, and now wait for pullbacks . Am i making sense. On the daily around 0.81647 was a level around 25-27 may. now it formed a nice reversal candle, after that i took the short.

There was also a level around 30/7/13 although it wasnt fresh.

Lastly on 13 aug we had a DBR , did anyone try a long there , according to you are we low on the curve.

Personally I am dollar bullish , so I ignored the long. I need to learn to keep my views away from trading and just trade the charts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd 21-08-2013 15-09-41.png Size: 35 KB
  • #1,273
  • Edited 8:01pm Aug 21, 2013 9:24am | Edited 8:01pm
Quoting ashtrader
{quote} Hi Alphonso, Regarding the nzdusd, did you first wait for the trendline to break, and now wait for pullbacks . Am i making sense. On the daily around 0.81647 was a level around 25-27 may. now it formed a nice reversal candle, after that i took the short. There was also a level around 30/7/13 although it wasnt fresh. Lastly on 13 aug we had a DBR , did anyone try a long there , according to you are we low on the curve. Personally I am dollar bullish , so I ignored the long. I need to learn to keep my views away from trading and just trade...
I waited for the trendline to be solidly broke. It also was very high on the curve, even though it was very wicky on the left area.
On the way down on H1 there was no possible trade based on confirmation, which was a pity.

Previous lows were broken as I explained before and I was expecting a short on NZDUSD, which I got on H1 supply level as you can see on my chart. It's still holding there. I am also $ bullish, and if previous demand on NZDUSD is broken, I will be biased to short. That D1 demand on NZDUSD was not good since it was counter.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 136 KB


Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,274
  • Aug 21, 2013 9:59am Aug 21, 2013 9:59am
gbp usd very close to the target, i need only 26 pips

right now it is about + 240 pips.
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  • #1,275
  • Aug 21, 2013 10:06am Aug 21, 2013 10:06am
Attached eur aud h4.

Price is in range of weekly supply and under d1 supply.
On h4 we have nice supply level, but i wasn't sure if it's going to be ok, so i din't take it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur aud h4.PNG Size: 97 KB
  • #1,276
  • Aug 21, 2013 10:22am Aug 21, 2013 10:22am
Quoting sebkor6
gbp usd very close to the target, i need only 26 pips right now it is about + 240 pips. {image}
Hi Sebkor,

where is the entry point on this chart? Could you please mark it on the chart. I could not see the retouch of the demand-zone you mentioned on the chart. Or did you took the trade on a lower timeframe?
That would be great. Thank you.

Regards,
Peter
  • #1,277
  • Edited 8:01pm Aug 21, 2013 10:22am | Edited 8:01pm
Quoting sebkor6
gbp usd very close to the target, i need only 26 pips right now it is about + 240 pips. {image}
Remember we have FOMC news in 3 hours, at 7 p.m GMT. I will not trade 1 hour before the news. I will disconnect my trade manager and no trades will be possible, those are my rules. Maybe some of my levels would be triggered, but I don't want to take unnecessary risks, will wait for tomorrow. There are ENOUGH low $ risk opportunities outside of news events, I don't need to take any risks during big news events.

But that's all to any of you I just don't trade!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,278
  • Aug 21, 2013 12:58pm Aug 21, 2013 12:58pm
Hi Alfonso,

This is my 1st post on this thread.
Wanted to know how you manage trades you're already in before big news.

Thanks
Max
  • #1,279
  • Edited 8:01pm Aug 21, 2013 1:34pm | Edited 8:01pm
Quoting mx rahman
Hi Alfonso, This is my 1st post on this thread. Wanted to know how you manage trades you're already in before big news. Thanks Max
Welcome to the thread Max!

I described in a previous post what I do, refere to it by searching the thread. But will tell you quickly.
I was today short on four instruments, all trades were positive. I moved sl to breakeven 1 hour before the news and locked in some profits with my sl away from price in case there is some slippage.

I will not add uo any trades and I will not trade till tomorrow. All of my trade setups are temporarily removed and will see to them tomorrow after the news. That's what I do, I just try to avoid unnecessary losses. You can earn a lot but u can lose a lot.

I am now on my mobile! I will see what happened tomorrow but at least my trades are saved. Maybe I will get all breakevens but since I am 'protected' I may have some surprises tomorrow, who knows!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,280
  • Aug 22, 2013 1:36am Aug 22, 2013 1:36am
Hi

something from psychological point of view.

When we enter the trade according to daily or even weekly supply or demand zone (in this case demand), it's better not to watch the chart on lower timeframes.
We should set our take profit level, and after hitting 2:1 rr only protect our position to BE. Let's see what happened on this chart oh h4...for me i'ts a one big chaos, that could cause that we might close our position way to early.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur jpy daily.PNG Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur jpy h4.PNG Size: 111 KB
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