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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #69,101
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:02pm Aug 20, 2013 6:02pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} Two aliens in one day. What are the odds? Hey, are you two from the same planet ?
NaDa.....................

Go buy lottery tickets tho......................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #69,102
  • Aug 21, 2013 12:24am Aug 21, 2013 12:24am
it is what it is

the only alternative is that the entire structure is wave1 of an even bigger diagonal/triangle, but it meets all the EWP rules for a contracting diagonal so a correction to at least 1.27x is in order. The only caveat is that wave 5 of an ending diagonal tends to throw-over the upper TL - yet for this count to be valid wave 5 cannot exceed 1.3600 or it will be longer than wave 3. Up in a diagonal often means down in one too, so I expect 3w (5-3-5) stabs to the downside.

If the count is wrong or EU defies EW principles then correction should halt at 1.3200

http://ubuntuone.com/009Yye9ccPHgT4ogd3dhiS
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,103
  • Aug 21, 2013 4:11am Aug 21, 2013 4:11am
Closed ucad long @ 0.0440
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #69,104
  • Aug 21, 2013 4:12am Aug 21, 2013 4:12am
Quoting KillerWhale
Closed ucad long @ 0.0440
Oops sorry wrong thread
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #69,105
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:08am Aug 21, 2013 5:08am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Oops sorry wrong thread
Don't worry about it KW. You're more than welcome to beach yourself here any time
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,106
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:09am Aug 21, 2013 5:09am
Quoting venzen
it is what it is the only alternative is that the entire structure is wave1 of an even bigger diagonal/triangle, but it meets all the EWP rules for a contracting diagonal so a correction to at least 1.27x is in order. The only caveat is that wave 5 of an ending diagonal tends to throw-over the upper TL - yet for this count to be valid wave 5 cannot exceed 1.3600 or it will be longer than wave 3. Up in a diagonal often means down in one too, so I expect 3w (5-3-5) stabs to the downside. If the count is wrong or EU defies EW principles then correction...
Looks good venzen. Either way, watch out below... after we make an attempt at 1.350x, or maybe not.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,107
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:10am Aug 21, 2013 5:10am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} NaDa..................... Go buy lottery tickets tho......................
Done
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,108
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:20am Aug 21, 2013 5:20am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Looks good venzen. Either way, watch out below... after we make an attempt at 1.350x, or maybe not.
hi PT!
well, I tell you, the chats are sending mixed signals: EU says USD spike down and then massive rise, UJ says expect a prolonged (week+) drop in USD...
if i have to go with one i'd say EU, but tonight will reveal all (or nothing!)
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,109
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:27am Aug 21, 2013 5:27am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi PT! well, I tell you, the chats are sending mixed signals: EU says USD spike down and then massive rise, UJ says expect a prolonged (week+) drop in USD... if i have to go with one i'd say EU, but tonight will reveal all (or nothing!)
Well there is no rule that says correlations have to continue.

Here's an example... If the entire market becomes risk averse as in "risk-off", then if you recall back in the days before QE3 started, the USD would lose against the JPY but gain against the Euro.

More specifically the correlation used to be as follows during risk off
EUR/USD bearish
GBP/USD bearish
AUD/USD bearish
USD/CHF bearish
USD/JPY bearish
and they rose and fell in unison with the SP500 and the Dow
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,110
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:45am Aug 21, 2013 5:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Well there is no rule that says correlations have to continue. Here's an example... If the entire market becomes risk averse as in "risk-off", then if you recall back in the days before QE3 started, the USD would lose against the JPY but gain against the Euro. More specifically the correlation used to be as follows during risk off EUR/USD bearish GBP/USD bearish AUD/USD bearish USD/CHF bearish USD/JPY bearish and they rose and fell in unison with the SP500 and the Dow

thanks for that. risk-off is definitely going to become the new retro in-thing - it would make sense that those correlations re-emerge, eh?

I'm still holding an S&P short (target 1640) and if the USD starts a risk-off rally I've got a short harpoon armed and ready specially for the Dow !
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,111
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:50am Aug 21, 2013 5:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Don't worry about it KW. You're more than welcome to beach yourself here any time
lold

morning all.

flat except limit order just above on EURAUD 4816. i'm accumulating AUDUSD longs, EURAUD shorts. both are at and around major daily highs/lows. hopefully one of these will work, if not both. AUDUSD, EURAUD have the potential to be a magnificent reversals. i will gladly risk a lot on each cent for 2-3 cents on each to make 10+ per lot

i am short 4 crude contracts fr 0662 avg yesterday, which has almost doubled my MTD profit. looking for 0260,0360 TP.

other than this, waiting for FOMC
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #69,112
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:53am Aug 21, 2013 5:53am
Quoting venzen
{quote} thanks for that. risk-off is definitely going to become the new retro in-thing - it would make sense that those correlations re-emerge, eh? I'm still holding an S&P short (target 1640) and if the USD starts a risk-off rally I've got a short harpoon armed and ready specially for the Dow !
there is no good ES support right now other than the intraday griind higher from a few weeks back.. and they are meh at best. in futures, it broke 48 overnight ... i think youll make some money there. i got creamed buying the dip last week on the 15th. i am long only on ES futures and will wait for major supply a la 1590ish before i reenter
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #69,113
  • Aug 21, 2013 6:02am Aug 21, 2013 6:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Well there is no rule that says correlations have to continue. Here's an example... If the entire market becomes risk averse as in "risk-off", then if you recall back in the days before QE3 started, the USD would lose against the JPY but gain against the Euro. More specifically the correlation used to be as follows during risk off EUR/USD bearish GBP/USD bearish AUD/USD bearish USD/CHF bearish USD/JPY bearish and they rose and fell in unison with the SP500 and the Dow
I do not understand this correlation. Usually, EUR/USD and USD/CHF have negative correlation about 9xx%%??? ¿ does this negative correlation break at panic moment??? ¡USD/JPY bearish too???

¿where is the beach picture you are? It looks similar to places close the mediterranean area??
  • #69,114
  • Aug 21, 2013 6:07am Aug 21, 2013 6:07am
Quoting redteamgo
{quote} there is no good ES support right now other than the intraday griind higher from a few weeks back.. and they are meh at best. in futures, it broke 48 overnight ... i think youll make some money there. i got creamed buying the dip last week on the 15th. i am long only on ES futures and will wait for major supply a la 1590ish before i reenter

thanks for sharing, redteamgo

I'm limited to the S&P500 CFD offered by Oanda. It's a bit dodgy (sometimes doesn't correlate to the cash index and has pipettes) but it pays which is what matters.

You mention AUD - seems the bounce has begun, but I am cautious to position pre-FOMC release...

good luck
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,115
  • Aug 21, 2013 6:16am Aug 21, 2013 6:16am
Quoting Ambar
{quote} I do not understand this correlation. Usually, EUR/USD and USD/CHF have negative correlation about 9xx%%??? ¿ does this negative correlation break at panic moment??? ¡USD/JPY bearish too??? ¿where is the beach picture you are? It looks similar to places close the mediterranean area??
Hi Ambar. It is called the RiskOn/RiskOff phenomenon. When markets panic, they rush to the safe haven currencies in this rank
1st CHF
2nd JPY
3rd USD

and out of the risk correlated currencies in this rank
1st AUD
2nd EUR
3rd GBP
4th CAD

If you look back to 2011 and compare the pairs you mentioned, you will see what I mean.

The beach picture is Malta, where I am currently enjoying a relaxed lifestyle
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,116
  • Aug 21, 2013 6:18am Aug 21, 2013 6:18am
Okay I am heading out for a while. I'll be back later.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,117
  • Edited 8:11am Aug 21, 2013 7:20am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hi Ambar. It is called the RiskOn/RiskOff phenomenon. When markets panic, they rush to the safe haven currencies in this rank 1st CHF 2nd JPY 3rd USD and out of the risk correlated currencies in this rank 1st AUD 2nd EUR 3rd GBP 4th CAD If you look back to 2011 and compare the pairs you mentioned, you will see what I mean. The beach picture is Malta, where I am currently enjoying a relaxed lifestyle
You re relaxing in Malta , I'm in Elba island. It looks like trading fx isn't that tough!​
Per aspera ad astra
  • #69,118
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:21am Aug 21, 2013 8:21am
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} You re relaxing in Malta , I'm in Elba island. It looks like trading fx isn't that tough!​
My cognata (sister in-law) and her husband are travelling in the Tuscany area right now. I am not sure if they will be visiting Elba, but I do know it is a very nice island which I will visit one day.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,119
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:21am Aug 21, 2013 8:21am
Hi PT, how are you?
  • #69,120
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:25am Aug 21, 2013 8:25am
Quoting rekon67
Hi PT, how are you?
Hi rekon. I am a little wet but also very refreshed
Thank you for asking.
Hope you are well also.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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