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  • #827,781
  • Aug 21, 2013 4:43am Aug 21, 2013 4:43am
Hi all,

Although my bias is bearish on the EURUSD, we must realise that there is always volatile price action around significant resistance levels. 1.3400 is one.

Yes this could be a fakeout and road back to lower levels, and good FOMC announcement i.e. exiting QE could see retest of 1.2750 over longer time-frame (2 months or so).

I've had this opinion that the market is made of many price-zones. Also lead-up to news announcement is nothing but noise and news makes 80+ pip move breaking S/R putting us in next zone.. then more noise until the next news.. But thats all a bit cynical

Anyway, yesterday there was perfect bullish AB=CD pattern.

would expect a small retrace as we have had (shown as choppy action around 1.34), lead-up will be interesting, more risky than usual. but definately a rough patch.

FOMC expecting 200 pip
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #827,782
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:05am Aug 21, 2013 5:05am
Quoting Miguel.N
{quote} thanks, ....1.36 will be good place !?

1.36 for short?
I would think some expected good policies released during FOMC would drives EU down to 3250 tonight.
Right now, players are jacking up the price now, as expected.
  • #827,783
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:09am Aug 21, 2013 5:09am
did anyone read this , make sure you have enough sleep

http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/...s-8776134.html
Mohan
  • #827,784
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:22am Aug 21, 2013 5:22am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} a shadow above supply with close price below it is false breakout.. a shadow below demand with close price above it a false breakout.. a shadow above demand with closing price above is a bounce a shadow below supply with closing price below is a bounce but in my opinion after this bounce or breakout price often retest this level if strong or weak... i dont know it all but little could help
Yes Donfriday its helpful and i am sure Shadow means spike!!
  • #827,785
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:23am Aug 21, 2013 5:23am
This moves can be a wash and rinse for the shorts or this moves are the big players' or the retail's opened positions who have already known the FOMC resoults...
In my opinion rather the 2nd version... and at the moment technikally too...
The big news can be seen in the price charts....

Anybody others opinion?
Anything is math!
  • #827,786
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:26am Aug 21, 2013 5:26am
some food for the table

swissy daily, pa is in demand zone - pretty basic pa

1hr pa could be in process of building a bottom, bit early yet, considering the room above, may take time, time is something we all have, to be patient, and alert,, this simple falling tl, seems ok, and we now have a little pimple BO north, possible retesting right now, the white line is a monthly level I am watching, and generally monthly do not give up without a decent fight, lots of other shit can add, pivots, fibs, psyc levels etc, I have but on their respective charts

anyway, if go to weekly, could be a nice double bottom printing, of course need monthly close 1st to increase odds, go to monthly and the demand zone is quite clean and clear, and zoom right out can see pa is in the bigger monthly demand zone

she is contrarian EU, shes in multiple demand zones, if demand exceed supply, some major pips on offer, for longer term traders and considering SNB have not hesitated to put in floors, my view is bullish swissy for rest of this year and bearish eu forever
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy daily 21 8 2013.png Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy 1hr 20 8 2013.png Size: 45 KB
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  • #827,787
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:29am Aug 21, 2013 5:29am
Quoting Miguel.N
{quote} thanks, ....1.36 will be good place !?

It's always better to short higher my friend.

But I have been waiting for FOMC as the next big mover.

Im planning to get a uni friend - computer science coding genius to design a robot for me that can trade under extreme cases of volatility
i.e. news announcements.

But point is, this FOMC sets the next fortnight.

I agree with above, bullish USD talk, they can't have 1.38 on the EURUSD.

FX is not 100% technical, please look at the yen on the monthly
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #827,788
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:30am Aug 21, 2013 5:30am
Quoting Kajos2250
This moves can be a wash and rinse for the shorts or this moves are the big players' or the retail's opened positions who have already known the FOMC resoults... In my opinion rather the 2nd version... and at the moment technikally too... The big news can be seen in the price charts.... Anybody others opinion?
I totally with both versions. it seems that some news, esp figures can be calculated if you follow the news.But i think version 1 is more applicable for today's PA
  • #827,789
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:30am Aug 21, 2013 5:30am
Quoting KiwiTrada
some food for the table swissy daily, pa is in demand zone - pretty basic pa 1hr pa could be in process of building a bottom, bit early yet, considering the room above, may take time, time is something we all have, to be patient, and alert,, this simple falling tl, seems ok, and we now have a little pimple BO north, possible retesting right now, the white line is a monthly level I am watching, and generally monthly do not give up without a decent fight, lots of other shit can add, pivots, fibs, psyc levels etc, I have but on their respective charts...
Bearish EU forever.. I like it Kiwi how we always say that. and look at the chart

But seriously, if FOMC comes as planned with positive outlook on US, with some actions in place, we will be happy bears
and my dad will be happy! im sure hes on the forum or will be very soon
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #827,790
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:34am Aug 21, 2013 5:34am
Quoting KiwiTrada
some food for the table swissy daily, pa is in demand zone - pretty basic pa 1hr pa could be in process of building a bottom, bit early yet, considering the room above, may take time, time is something we all have, to be patient, and alert,, this simple falling tl, seems ok, and we now have a little pimple BO north, possible retesting right now, the white line is a monthly level I am watching, and generally monthly do not give up without a decent fight, lots of other shit can add, pivots, fibs, psyc levels etc, I have but on their respective charts...
Now THAT's what I'm talkin' bout. A plan. Set.... go! I like it.

Many piparoonies to ya.
  • #827,791
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:42am Aug 21, 2013 5:42am
Quoting KiwiTrada
some food for the table swissy daily, pa is in demand zone - pretty basic pa 1hr pa could be in process of building a bottom, bit early yet, considering the room above, may take time, time is something we all have, to be patient, and alert,, this simple falling tl, seems ok, and we now have a little pimple BO north, possible retesting right now, the white line is a monthly level I am watching, and generally monthly do not give up without a decent fight, lots of other shit can add, pivots, fibs, psyc levels etc, I have but on their respective charts...
swissy weekly and monthtly

weekly shows present weekly range 9100ishh - 9900ish, since about nov dec 2011, the 9900ish is going to be the toughie for bulls
monthly well pretty clear shes in an all time demand zone with a pretty strong rejection from the bottom

does this mean shes going to go up, "no" is it better r/r to long "yes" even a retest of the bottom r/r would still be long

my rave for today finish, trade safe, and get many green pip
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy weekly.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy monthly.png Size: 58 KB
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  • #827,792
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:42am Aug 21, 2013 5:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its here with the 4h i hammer, usually bearish at proven R once below the i hammer low..e-star most times not good to be long here against that candle... we had one at 3415 last time, months back {image}
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1377033144
they cant tell one what the bounce will be. only that a reverse/bounce potential is there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 18 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #827,793
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:42am Aug 21, 2013 5:42am
Quoting oscarjp
hello traders, why the dollar is so weak? If you want to know the answer please visit my blog http://oscarjp-chrimatistikos.blogspot.com/ additional you will find my own actual technical forecast for eur/usd best regards, oscarjp


you want people to visit your blog?..why not say what you have to say here....
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #827,794
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:44am Aug 21, 2013 5:44am
eur usd 128200 next up
  • #827,795
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:47am Aug 21, 2013 5:47am
So.. the majority of retail community is short or bearish, expecting a taper in today focm, and eurusd to drop.

this can end badly
  • #827,796
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:49am Aug 21, 2013 5:49am
Quoting Fxmaximus
{quote} Now THAT's what I'm talkin' bout. A plan. Set.... go! I like it. Many piparoonies to ya.
What plan ?
  • #827,797
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:52am Aug 21, 2013 5:52am
Quoting spaceduck
So.. the majority of retail community is short or bearish, expecting a taper in today focm, and eurusd to drop. this can end badly
badly only for fools, wise traders will not be trading fomc other than older entries, any entry 75 pips either way is what is called fresh meat, and deserves to be cooked
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #827,798
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:55am Aug 21, 2013 5:55am
Quoting spaceduck
So.. the majority of retail community is short or bearish, expecting a taper in today focm, and eurusd to drop. this can end badly
That's a sure thing. Put it this way, the FOMC announcement does not affect the affect the strength of US dollars and the taper (if true) is a bonus.
Therefore technically, to short should be “quite” safe, even now.
  • #827,799
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:55am Aug 21, 2013 5:55am
for eur/usd fomc could take it to old mofu 1.3265 or above 1.36 for a go on 1.37
  • #827,800
  • Aug 21, 2013 5:55am Aug 21, 2013 5:55am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1377033144 they cant tell one what the bounce will be. only that a reverse/bounce potential is there. {image}
I'd like a bounce towards 3432.9 anytime between now and around 3357.1. Even between 3309.7 and 3301.3 would be awesome, that area is highly populated.
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