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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #69,081
  • Aug 20, 2013 8:45am Aug 20, 2013 8:45am
Quoting venzen
{quote} yep and USD index is heading down strongly. {quote} evidently so, alien, coz if it was going down it would have done so the past 2 weeks: failed H&S, indicators emitting steam, wavecounts screaming down...
Well bullish it may be. I am long from 3360 so I'm fine with that, but still I won't believe 3710 until I see it.
This may well be the psych before the fall as we have witnessed many times before... like July 2008, Nov 2009, May 2011, Feb 2013

The Euro right now is just getting the benefit of the emerging market sell-off as euro funds invested in EM are being repatriated until they find a new home which certainly will not be Europe. This was also the case in the above mentioned dates.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,082
  • Aug 20, 2013 9:22am Aug 20, 2013 9:22am
A huge wedge has formed in GBPUSD and the TDI is showing divergences with the volatility bands narrowly closed tightly. This is a perfect setup for a decisive breakdown tomorrow, unless the wedge is broken today on the upside, which is unlikely.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd - h1.png Size: 86 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #69,083
  • Aug 20, 2013 9:23am Aug 20, 2013 9:23am
Quoting Alorente
A huge wedge has formed in GBPUSD and the TDI is showing divergences with the volatility bands narrowly closed tightly. This is a perfect setup for a decisive breakdown tomorrow, unless the wedge is broken tody on the upside, which is unlikely. {image}
It still has the potential to kiss 1.5700, but as always only time will tell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,084
  • Aug 20, 2013 9:45am Aug 20, 2013 9:45am
Quoting venzen
{quote} yep and USD index is heading down strongly. {quote} evidently so, alien, coz if it was going down it would have done so the past 2 weeks: failed H&S, indicators emitting steam, wavecounts screaming down...
People confuse a minor retrace (or no action) with............it's going to the moon or the basement kinda stuff...............

Look at the impulse waves for answers....
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #69,085
  • Aug 20, 2013 9:45am Aug 20, 2013 9:45am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Alorente, well if you put it like that... Good points. i agree with your Dollar is King argument. However, just prior to making an upward trajectory, I believe it needs to go tag 79.x, before closing "the box". USD strength may be the outlook irrespective of what the Fed says, does or doesn't do. Psychologically speaking, i think the US and the Dollar will be the last resorts, until they no longer are.
I would say there is room technically for USD Index to drop to 79 plus and still remain bullish, but it doesnīt have to. The box is formed with a higher low right now and price is right on the Up trendline. Just break 84 from here and itīs gone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #69,086
  • Aug 20, 2013 10:07am Aug 20, 2013 10:07am
Loads of activity in that wide ranged push up through the 3400 level and another 24 + hours before the FOMC minutes.

If there's another bout of dollar selling who knows how high this might go....I'll just follow the 5m chart - its easier for me

PS anyone else having trouble with this new FF layout and the poxy little PM box - can we re-size it??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #69,087
  • Aug 20, 2013 10:20am Aug 20, 2013 10:20am
Quoting Islander
Loads of activity in that wide ranged push up through the 3400 level and another 24 + hours before the FOMC minutes. If there's another bout of dollar selling who knows how high this might go....I'll just follow the 5m chart - its easier for me PS anyone else having trouble with this new FF layout and the poxy little PM box - can we re-size it?? {image}
Yes it is small, but I'm fine with it. I adapt to change quite well.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,088
  • Aug 20, 2013 11:00am Aug 20, 2013 11:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes it is small, but I'm fine with it. I adapt to change quite well.

My adapting consists of zooming out to 75% as the right of the PM box is off my screen
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #69,089
  • Aug 20, 2013 11:12am Aug 20, 2013 11:12am
I gotta say, my RSI are showing some pretty good seller conditions. Check out my chart or you can just plug in these settings and see for your self:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RSI readings August 20, 2013.png Size: 139 KB


Usually, I would expect at least 100pip return (or 600 pips like what happened in June) from these conditions. I would also be prepared to hole the position for up to 2 months. I will probably NOT go in to a short position until the candle closes (end of the day or end of the week) to confirm the RSI indos.

Happy trading all!
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #69,090
  • Aug 20, 2013 12:21pm Aug 20, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
I gotta say, my RSI are showing some pretty good seller conditions. Check out my chart or you can just plug in these settings and see for your self: {image} Usually, I would expect at least 100pip return (or 600 pips like what happened in June) from these conditions. I would also be prepared to hole the position for up to 2 months. I will probably NOT go in to a short position until the candle closes (end of the day or end of the week) to confirm the RSI indos. Happy trading all!
There is definitely some nice RSI(14) bearish divergence there.
I am also seeing bearish divergence on MacD(12,24,9) and RSX(5) (my two favorite indies when used together)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,091
  • Aug 20, 2013 12:25pm Aug 20, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting Islander
{quote} My adapting consists of zooming out to 75% as the right of the PM box is off my screen
Time for a bigger monitor maybe?
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,092
  • Aug 20, 2013 12:51pm Aug 20, 2013 12:51pm
I smell another short squeeze cooking. 1.3503 here we come.
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Quoting PipTrapper
Okay so I am not going to pull out my chest full of valid reasons why the Euro belongs further towards parity. No matter what the data says, there are serious structural issue in the Eurozone and anything short of a solid banking and fiscal union is just a festering wound... and with all festering wounds, eventually you need to address why it is festering instead of just pouring antiseptic over it. Anyway, what I am doing here is basically trying to pick a top. The retail traders are still piling into Euro shorts and until they capitulate, this...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,093
  • Aug 20, 2013 1:10pm Aug 20, 2013 1:10pm
European currencies are testing the top of their recent ranges today with the euro hitting a 6-month high against the U.S. dollar and the Swiss Franc reaching a 2-month high. While new milestones were not reached in sterling (yet), the currency pair is appreciating against the greenback for the fourth out of five trading days. We can't attribute the move to data because the only economic report released from Europe was German producer prices, which declined in the month of July. Economists had been hoping for an uptick in price pressures but unfortunately weak demand is keeping a lid on price growth, which eases the ECB's concerns about inflation. At the same time, no U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release today.
"Frankly, I don't see markets; I see risks, rewards, and money." Larry Hite
  • #69,094
  • Aug 20, 2013 3:16pm Aug 20, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Time for a bigger monitor maybe? {image}
WOW!!
  • #69,095
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:10pm Aug 20, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting AlienOvichO
European currencies are testing the top of their recent ranges today with the euro hitting a 6-month high against the U.S. dollar and the Swiss Franc reaching a 2-month high. While new milestones were not reached in sterling (yet), the currency pair is appreciating against the greenback for the fourth out of five trading days. We can't attribute the move to data because the only economic report released from Europe was German producer prices, which declined in the month of July. Economists had been hoping for an uptick in price pressures but unfortunately...
Hey Brother............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #69,096
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:25pm Aug 20, 2013 4:25pm
Quoting AlienOvichO
European currencies are testing the top of their recent ranges today with the euro hitting a 6-month high against the U.S. dollar and the Swiss Franc reaching a 2-month high. While new milestones were not reached in sterling (yet), the currency pair is appreciating against the greenback for the fourth out of five trading days. We can't attribute the move to data because the only economic report released from Europe was German producer prices, which declined in the month of July. Economists had been hoping for an uptick in price pressures but unfortunately...
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Hey Brother............
Two aliens in one day. What are the odds?
Hey, are you two from the same planet ?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,097
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:30pm Aug 20, 2013 4:30pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Two aliens in one day. What are the odds? Hey, are you two from the same planet ?
odds are definitely higher than E/U 1.18 by tomorrow
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #69,098
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:45pm Aug 20, 2013 4:45pm
Quoting Vtmn
{quote} odds are definitely higher than E/U 1.18 by tomorrow
True, but depending on the contents of the FOMC minutes, 1.28 is possible by Friday... but still unlikely.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,099
  • Aug 20, 2013 4:56pm Aug 20, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting PipTrapper
True, but depending on the contents of the FOMC minutes, 1.28 is possible by Friday... but still unlikely.
good luck tomorrow, i still have few gold longs running from last Asia, lets see how gentle they are with me today

i'm switching apartment tomorrow so i dont have time to trade tomorrow sadly
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #69,100
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:17pm Aug 20, 2013 5:17pm
Quoting Vtmn
{quote} good luck tomorrow, i still have few gold longs running from last Asia, lets see how gentle they are with me today i'm switching apartment tomorrow so i dont have time to trade tomorrow sadly
Then make sure you don't leave yourself exposed. FOMC minutes could send the majors either way... or nowhere at all.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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