EURUSD Exclusive

Very odd behaviour on EURUSD today.

Yes It certainly is. It appears to have gotten itself trapped between the 8-bar and 30 Bar simple moving average on the 8 hour chart. Volumes appear to be very low. Usually it does do SOMETHING in this trading session. Low interest across the boards in any of the pairs I watch. Calm before the storm. Probable best strategy. Let the market make a strong move, then let it move back again, wait for it to move again. this time for real, get in with small position manage your money according to your system. This ride is going to turn wild!

Hello everyone.
Newbie here, already breaking the rules for not talking about EUR/USD.
I hope to learn something here though, the other EUR/USD thread is all about fighting and bullying.
If somebody is kind to help out a newbie with some recommandations, i'd be glad.
Thanks in advance!

Here is one observation which seems especially apropos today. Remember you don"t HAVE to trade just to be trading. Learning to be content until you see an opportunity you just cannot deny is the major part of the art, and one I am still learning after a number of years at it.

We traders have a huge disadvantage. I coming from the world of trading equities, can clearly see that big moves, beit hourly and especially daily almost always come with big volume. We traders have "learned" not to trust a big bar that has unusually small volume. This advantage of volume confirmation is very often missing in the eur/usd. I see times when it will move up 50 pips in the asian session say from 2-5am. I am usually following hrly bars, except during news, the smaller bars to me are just noise, really more for gamblers and action seekers. Its all good. Whatever floats your boat. But when I see a 50 pip move over 3 hourly bars,all green, I used to assume this meant nothing, and in fact could be faded as the volume in the asian session is often so boringly low, you could drop dead from boredom. Set up an hrly and daily of the eur/usd side by side and you will be shocked to see that even when decent colume comes in for the asian session for 3 hrs straight...it has hardly moved the volume bar on the daily. It flips me out. This to me means this move shouldbe meaningless. But then what often happens is that the NY boys step in around 8am-8:30(they get in early,believe me.) and often continue the move if not with big volume,at least bigger than the asian session and then at 10am comes a huge solid red bar that wipes out all the gains but still not on even 1/2 the volume it took to build that gain/bar!!! And then by noon when the euro is down for the day, we retasil guys are locked out. Why? Good night boys, they all went home, volume dries up to what it would be at 6pm and we miss the move.

Now today look at the QQQ symbol for the nasdaq, it gaps down big on big volume, continues down for 2-3 hrs on big volume and then comes back to eat up the whole loss with 3 out of 4 bars having big volume, but......the volume is bigger than the whole move down. That is how its supposed to happen. Here I see the reverse.......

I see one big bar at 3am pushing the eur/usd up or down, the volume is decent to big, and the rest of the asian and london session is a dribble of tiny bars all going the other way to eat away at that big bar like a woodpecker gnawing on a tree that must fall. Then maybe yull get the ny session to throw a big bar one way, andother big bar the other way, and we end up cross eyed by lunch! And volume never comes into even one 60 min bar thru noon time(to me the forex action is meaningless after noon NY time.)

In the world of stocks one big solid candle with high volume is almost always confirming direction for either the rest of the day or at least the next bar unlerss the volume is sooooo rediculously high they climaxed it in one bar. This doesnt happen much in Forex, especially eur/usd. And the truth where we are handicapped again is the eur/usd doesnt get meaningful action til around 8-8:30 am because thats when the stockmarket futures volume gets very heavy. So until 8am the direction is often meaningless. TRADERS CANNOT SURVIVE WHEN THE INFO ON THEIR CHARTS IS MEANINGLESS or worse, decieving.

Look at how cunningly they brought up the JPY against all currencies one small bar at a time with almost no pullbacks for weeks and weeks at a time. And rarely did big volume come in. It became a grinders game. (The wicks and tails used to stop us little guys out of course.)You never used to see that action consistently. The Forex market aint what she used to be, and to survive we must change what candles and indicators we give importance to.

To Silat50:
You give me real food for thought.
This is what makes it so much fun!

"1.3200 and 1.3400 are the levels to watch to be broken" seems to be the talk of most traders. My questions is how do YOU decide if these levels (or any level for that matter) are actually broken and avoid a false break? Please chime in

Pending short at 1.319 SL 1.321


if it breaks, usually get 20 pip in a few seconds, if thats true in general, r:r=2

Thanks everyone for keeping this thread active..

I made some horrible trades yesterday..

Absolutely horrible

But its no big deal, its just a small high risk type of account


Hope you all had a good day.

When it breaks from the pennant, you can be aggressive and get on it, but remember, it usually comes back for "the kiss goodbye". If it goes back in the pack, be glad you held off. If it continues on its way, THEN you get in. This is especially true if it is caused by a news event. Almost inevitably it will come back. if it fails to make the 32% retracement level before going on, THAT's an excellent time to get in.
What do you think?
Does a false breakout indicate which way the real breakout will eventually occur with any kind of probability?
Does a Fibonacci extension indicate this breakout is not false but real?
What part do volumes play in this situation? (I think high volume is a good indication. Most dealers will give you an indication of the volumes they experience.
What part may market openings have?
This is not all that is involved but considering these things, being aware of them puts you in a better position than not.

Man, these August markets...

So illiquid


Anyway im short from 3347

This one is "insane move" maybe got pumped up from sterling? im short from 3375. I really doubt this baby will make it to 1.3400 today.

Just to kill curiosity. who in here is Bull ? :-)
Bull for the 1.34 and some more?

You are just about there, old chap! you have to go back just about to February to get higher. Unfortunately for me, I am biased Bear.
That means, even when I see this sort of thing coming, I don't trade it. I just stay away, keeping prepared to get in the the inevitable way back down.

The Euro is rising against the dollar with strong volume. It sashayed back a bit (hence the long wick in the candle, and then proceeded further. I am keeping my sell stops safely below the 96 bar S.M.A. on the hourly chart. Until I see this awful thing, the Euro Bull, come to an end.

I think you should be in this making money. Get out when it hesitates, with your cash in hand. If it keeps going (bounces back up) keep going. No one ever really knows when one of these ends. Go Bull, go!

....My turn will come, soon enough

I think that the GBP/USD is tracking the Eur/usd. I am short like you, now with red numbers, but I doubt about this strong upward movement in August, before the FOMC.

I was so deadly wrong, hit my stop loss at 3400. What a lesson to learn. I decide to stay at sideline for a moment. Pondering at the hard lesson.

Not necessarily, i think you just had your SL at the wrong place so being effectively a ML (make loss)
Got mine just a tad higher.

Edit: Off course I will lose this one if it turns in to a trap.

Getting short here at 90

then long

It says you are a new member. Let me suggest you keep your lot size so tiny that you are bored, until you see a pattern of wins and losses that is definitively a gain. Then you will naturally say "If Only I traded larger, I would have made some real money". So you go just a teen tiny bit larger, still enough so that you could carry the trade for a year, waiting for it to come back into gain. When you get the same pattern, repeat the cycle. Try to get to the point that you are making happy money without having to resort to stop losses.
Along the way if you want to play with nice tight stop losses you can, only keep your size small until you see the market swing several times, and you keep coming out ahead.
Notice the precision mathematics I use to express myself. I calculate everything right down to the tenth of a pip.
yeah, right...

The chart speaks better