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Simple Sma-based strategy

  • #121
  • Aug 16, 2013 4:17am Aug 16, 2013 4:17am
here is GBPUSD H1 and M5 (in the same time).
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m5.png Size: 24 KB
  • #122
  • Aug 16, 2013 4:33am Aug 16, 2013 4:33am
using M5, u already make pip at the blue area cause it's fit the rule to enter, But if we using H1, we still have to wait.
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  • #123
  • Aug 16, 2013 4:36am Aug 16, 2013 4:36am
Each time frame is traded by itself.
  • #124
  • Aug 16, 2013 3:15pm Aug 16, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting podberry
{quote} Hi yonnie, where do you see Smilee's 10% losses out of interest ? I saw losses at 26.77% of total trades as per the pic below or am I missing something ? {image}
yes, you might be right..........I realize now that if smilee has a loss, it is for 4 trades.
to say more than 90% winners is not really the thing to do.
  • #125
  • Aug 16, 2013 5:30pm Aug 16, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting yonnie
{quote} yes, you might be right..........I realize now that if smilee has a loss, it is for 4 trades. to say more than 90% winners is not really the thing to do.

Yes but the first trades are less lots so despite greater pip value aren't worth no where near as much as the later trades.

Couldn't he also as they all have there own TP's lose on the first 3 but profit enough off the 4th trade on a bounce to cover the other 3 ??

There is literally no way to predict even semi accurately future market movement, this is a simple math's get around which keeps you on the longer trend which gives you a nice edge on it's own.

Slow today, by M5 40ema, 200ema, 900ema worked well, I have some range and S/R based logic going on aswell though.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #126
  • Aug 17, 2013 12:54am Aug 17, 2013 12:54am
Hi, smilee, i'm sorry for my early doubt, this system looks stupidly cute and interesting now that i've done a little backtesting. it is very short, on daily TF, but seems strongly promising. however, the issue on daily timeframe is that there's NOT entries when market is ranging.

what's your experiences here? you traded daily? or 1H? 4H?

i'm considering to code an EA for this, it should not be hard anyway. then post here, is it a good idea to do?
  • #127
  • Aug 17, 2013 4:55am Aug 17, 2013 4:55am
Quoting charvo
Hi, smilee, i'm sorry for my early doubt, this system looks stupidly cute and interesting now that i've done a little backtesting. it is very short, on daily TF, but seems strongly promising. however, the issue on daily timeframe is that there's NOT entries when market is ranging. what's your experiences here? you traded daily? or 1H? 4H? i'm considering to code an EA for this, it should not be hard anyway. then post here, is it a good idea to do?

I will postup my m5 chart when at pc later, basically when the 200 & 900 emas are flat and close together i switch to range mode, envelope ranges where the martket generally but not perfectly stays within.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #128
  • Aug 17, 2013 4:26pm Aug 17, 2013 4:26pm
been backtesting this since last night. on 1H timeframe now, since Daily TF provides much fewer entries.

this is a semi-Auto using smilee's rules. it needs quite a few rules to be fully automatic, which seem beyond my coding skills. fully-auto only using smilee's rules will be a disaster.

with a trader's cautious daily supervision, this method seems to be a sound semi-auto system. very good one.

Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I will postup my m5 chart when at pc later, basically when the 200 & 900 emas are flat and close together i switch to range mode, envelope ranges where the martket generally but not perfectly stays within.
  • #129
  • Aug 18, 2013 1:12pm Aug 18, 2013 1:12pm
Here is my method, M5, yellow mid 40ema, Blue 200ema H & L, White 900ema H & L, Envelopes 40ema 0.18% and 200ema 0.40%

Example 1 :-

EJ, it's pretty sideways 15 tested top of 200range and low of, it's not accurate but around that area if trendless I look for counter trades.

It stays between the 40ema's range most of the time aswell if we had a down day for instance I'd be looking at entering shorts near the top if possible, maybe near the 40ema mid line.

Example 2 :-

GU until 1/2 way through 2nd was downtrend, nice reversal off the 900ema 1st also pretty accurately the top of the 200ema range. then the break above the 900ema laster days and 175pip area, GU moved to downtrend 29th july, 3 full days of downtrend and no 900ema breaks or losers worth 250pip area.

Still a work in progress, but nearer than I've been before I think, so all is good!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Example 2.jpg Size: 443 KB
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #130
  • Aug 19, 2013 3:17am Aug 19, 2013 3:17am
I'm afraid my strategy has been changed by a few members here with some new rules.
  • #131
  • Aug 19, 2013 4:15am Aug 19, 2013 4:15am
smilee, you have to speak up that deviations from the system will not be tolerated.
its amazing how people change things without even trying to trade according to the system of the thread starter.

clean upppppppppppp............go smilee go
  • #132
  • Aug 19, 2013 4:33am Aug 19, 2013 4:33am
Quoting smilee89
I'm afraid my strategy has been changed by a few members here with some new rules.

Just sharing dude, I've leached some of your logic, see if any of mine is useable to you, sharing is caring baby!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #133
  • Aug 19, 2013 6:07am Aug 19, 2013 6:07am
I have some rules' updates to check, but for this I need to build an EA.
Any volunteers?
  • #134
  • Aug 19, 2013 1:31pm Aug 19, 2013 1:31pm
Your system really is an easy one to follow, and this is to say thanks to Smilee89 . I have been going thru the thread and it seems the system works with all TF although wit far less entries in 4hr and daily. But all the same it works so far! Tnx
  • #135
  • Aug 19, 2013 6:25pm Aug 19, 2013 6:25pm
Quoting smilee89
{quote} First, you miss something very important. There is no average profit. The profit may change a lot since it depends on TF, pair and its volatility. You can gain huge profit when a trade is open with all 4 entries. Let me remind you that TP is based on distance of last entry from first entry, so it can make a big profit. 1 or 2 trades of this kind can recover a huge loss.
smilee,

went over your posts again and I don't understand this comment.

I thought we were not aiming for a big profit after 4 entries, but just to recover the losses from the first 2-3 entries + a little profit?
  • #136
  • Aug 19, 2013 6:30pm Aug 19, 2013 6:30pm
No.
If we enter all 4 entries we risk more and we want to gain a bigger profit than 1st, 2nd or 3rd entry.
  • #137
  • Edited Aug 20, 2013 12:26am Aug 19, 2013 9:20pm | Edited Aug 20, 2013 12:26am
thank you smilee,

am backtesting A/U from 1 January till now on hourly as I`m not able to keep an eye on things during the eur/us sessions on shorter TF.
this is a very small sample and I haven`t finished yet.

SL 50 pips below 400sma.

TP`s for all 4 entries is 30 pips.
for 4 entries: 4th entry is 6x30= +180 pips, 3rd entry around BE or small profit and loss on 1st and 2nd entry
on average +185 pips for 4 entries.
however, if the difference between 300 and 400sma is say 64 pips, I will go for 64 pips TP from the 4th entry.

for 3 entries: 3rd entry 3x30 = +90 pips, 2nd entry small profit, 1st entry loss
on average + 80 pips for 3 entries.

for 2 entries: 2nd entry + 30, 1st entry small loss or profit.
if loss 1st entry higher than 30 pips, say 35 pips, I will aim for 35 pips TP for 2nd trade.

for 1 entry: TP 30 pips.

a few questions if you don't mind:
1. do you have any comments to make on my TP`s?

2. 22 Feb: 200 and 300 sma together: what would your position size be for this entry: 0.1 or 0.3 or 0.4?

3. 4 April: take entry @ 2.00am on 60sma - out 1 hour later for 30 pips profit
4 April: 6 hours later, 8am crossed 60sma again - take this entry or wait for 10 candles again?

4. 12-15 April: loss - correct?

5. 29 April: more than 10 candles below 60sma, a few more candles below 30sma after 30 and 60sma cross over and then price hits 60 sma. take this trade @ 5.00am

6. 3 May: 1 big candle slices through 60, 200 and 300sma: position size?

7. 3 June: plenty of candles below 60sma - 30 and 60sma cross and now 30sma below. 5 candles below 30 sma and price hits all sma`s. would you have taken the trade although no 10 candles below 30sma?

thank you for your time
  • #138
  • Edited 6:04pm Aug 21, 2013 5:35pm | Edited 6:04pm
smilee,

on 1H TF I have my SL 50 pips above/below 400sma.

60sma entry hit and I place my SL 50 pips above 400sma @ 1.0460 (400sma = 1.0410 + 50 pips).
after that it takes a few days to get to 400sma and when price hits the 400sma the value of this 400sma is now 1.0380.

do I keep the same SL @ 1.0460 or do I change the SL to the new 400sma value (1.0380) + 50 pips = 1.0430?

thanks
  • #139
  • Edited 6:44pm Aug 21, 2013 6:07pm | Edited 6:44pm
Quoting smilee89
No. If we enter all 4 entries we risk more and we want to gain a bigger profit than 1st, 2nd or 3rd entry.
how do you calculate this TP from the 4th entry?
could you give an example?
  • #140
  • Aug 21, 2013 8:45pm Aug 21, 2013 8:45pm
Quoting smilee89
No. If we enter all 4 entries we risk more and we want to gain a bigger profit than 1st, 2nd or 3rd entry.

smilee

i have asked this before, can you tell us if you close the previous positions when you open a new position when price touches the new sma. in my opinion it is better to close the previous positions to stop any losses compounding.
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