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Simple Sma-based strategy

  • #41
  • Aug 11, 2013 5:37am Aug 11, 2013 5:37am
Another example of euraud with a big move against the trade first, and then a pullback and profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudm15_2.png Size: 45 KB
  • #42
  • Aug 11, 2013 10:20am Aug 11, 2013 10:20am
EA is welcome.
  • #43
  • Aug 11, 2013 11:52am Aug 11, 2013 11:52am
Nice system, i'm following this thread. Thank you!
  • #44
  • Aug 11, 2013 2:46pm Aug 11, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting xfiles
Nice system, i'm following this thread. Thank you!
Thanks. It is a great system.
  • #45
  • Aug 11, 2013 3:31pm Aug 11, 2013 3:31pm
Issue with my similar method is, when the SL gets hit the loss is HUGE relative to the size of the average profit, yes if I'm 4 positions in and it runs well then all is good, but 1 or 2 positions in and end up taking 30 - 50pips then it's a fraction of the losers.

How did you solve that ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #46
  • Aug 11, 2013 4:27pm Aug 11, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting Turveyd
Issue with my similar method is, when the SL gets hit the loss is HUGE relative to the size of the average profit, yes if I'm 4 positions in and it runs well then all is good, but 1 or 2 positions in and end up taking 30 - 50pips then it's a fraction of the losers. How did you solve that ??
First, you miss something very important. There is no average profit. The profit may change a lot since it depends on TF, pair and its volatility.
You can gain huge profit when a trade is open with all 4 entries. Let me remind you that TP is based on distance of last entry from first entry, so it can make a big profit. 1 or 2 trades of this kind can recover a huge loss.

Second, you can prevent yourself from big losses by using my tip I wrote today:
1 tip:
If Sma_400 is too far (and so is the SL) you can -
a. skip 1st entry
or
b. skip the whole trade
  • #47
  • Edited 5:53pm Aug 11, 2013 5:43pm | Edited 5:53pm
smilee,

yes, the profit will be very good if the 2nd, 3rd and 4th entry are stopped out at the first entry.

but you never know if that will be the case.

so after the 4th entry, you will be glued to the screen to see where price will go as you have no fixed TP?

very interesting system btw........

I use a similar long-term system, but with ever increasing amount of pips to average in plus I want confirmation that the trend resumed.
say trade 1 -100 pips, trade 2 -300 pips, trade3 - 600 pips etc with all orders same lot size. -
  • #48
  • Aug 11, 2013 5:56pm Aug 11, 2013 5:56pm
I will post the EA i made sometime tomorow when i get the time. Until then i was wondering if you could clear something up. Do you close out the follow up trades at the entry of the previous one or do you let it run all the way to the entry of the first trade? i.e. so that the 1st position has TP of 30, 2nd position has TP at position 1 entry, 3rd position has TP at position 2 entry, 4th position has TP at position 3 entry and so on. Or does all the positions following the first have the entry of that position as target?

Best regards
Zerrox
  • #49
  • Aug 11, 2013 6:33pm Aug 11, 2013 6:33pm
Quoting Zerrox
I will post the EA i made sometime tomorow when i get the time. Until then i was wondering if you could clear something up. Do you close out the follow up trades at the entry of the previous one or do you let it run all the way to the entry of the first trade? i.e. so that the 1st position has TP of 30, 2nd position has TP at position 1 entry, 3rd position has TP at position 2 entry, 4th position has TP at position 3 entry and so on. Or does all the positions following the first have the entry of that position as target? Best regards Zerrox
The TP for "follow up" trades is not at 1st entry nor in previous entry.
TP is shorter every time a new "follow up" trade is opened.

It is changing according the distance between the SMA's.

Actually I would love to test it with an EA so I may get a simple % value (between last entry and 1st entry), but until then it depends on every pair and its TF too.
  • #50
  • Aug 11, 2013 6:45pm Aug 11, 2013 6:45pm
Quoting yonnie
smilee, yes, the profit will be very good if the 2nd, 3rd and 4th entry are stopped out at the first entry. but you never know if that will be the case. so after the 4th entry, you will be glued to the screen to see where price will go as you have no fixed TP? very interesting system btw........ I use a similar long-term system, but with ever increasing amount of pips to average in plus I want confirmation that the trend resumed. say trade 1 -100 pips, trade 2 -300 pips, trade3 - 600 pips etc with all orders same lot size. -
The idea is not to be glued to the screen, it's the opposite.
I wrote lot size 0.1, 0.1, 0.3 and 0.6, but I did not mean this is the size. I meant that instead of using 1.1 lot at first entry, I divide my trade to 4 entries.
You may chose to risk only 0.11 lot for this trade and divide it to 0.01, 0.01, 0.03 and 0.06.
Just keep this ratio to any lotsize you want to trade in 4 different entries (1:1:3:6).
It is very useful and will help you in any strategy.
  • #51
  • Aug 11, 2013 7:30pm Aug 11, 2013 7:30pm
TP`s changing according to distance between SMA`s. would be nice if you show a chart with 4 entries and show me where you get out according to the distance between the sma`s. sorry am a slow learner.
  • #52
  • Aug 11, 2013 7:37pm Aug 11, 2013 7:37pm
Quoting yonnie
TP`s changing according to distance between SMA`s. would be nice if you show a chart with 4 entries and show me where you get out according to the distance between the sma`s. sorry am a slow learner.
TP moves marked in black lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm5-5sma with tp.PNG Size: 44 KB
  • #53
  • Aug 11, 2013 8:39pm Aug 11, 2013 8:39pm
sorry smilee, I still cant see a relationship between entries and TP`s.

so every entry has a different TP:
4th entry, exit @ 300 MA (coincidence?),
3rd entry, exit somewhere between 200MA and 30MA - why there?
2nd entry, exit on 30MA (coincidence?)
1st entry, exit @ ?

TP`s for 300MA and 400MA look smaller on the chart than for 200MA and 60MA entries........???
  • #54
  • Aug 11, 2013 8:54pm Aug 11, 2013 8:54pm
i agree with yonnie. there should be clear TPs for each entry. And you should post your live trade not the history because its easy to find the entry and tp after the chart history.
  • #55
  • Edited 2:45am Aug 12, 2013 2:20am | Edited 2:45am
You don't get the point.
Since the "follow up" entries are not steady, there is no a strict TP.
TP should be bigger than whole previous entries' losses to cover drawdown (floating losses) + some profit.
Approx. TP for 2nd entry is 1st entry loss + 1st entry TP.
Approx. TP for 3nd entry is 2-3 times 1 st entry TP.
Approx. TP for 4nd entry is 4-6 times 1 st entry TP.

Once again, it is not accurate, it depends on distance between SMA's.
  • #56
  • Edited 3:14am Aug 12, 2013 3:02am | Edited 3:14am
Quoting smilee89
TP should be bigger than whole previous entries' losses to cover drawdown (floating losses) + some profit.
thank you Smilee for your reply..........I get the general reasoning now concerning TP`s.

could you give me a general idea for the TP of the first trade for a DAILY system?
x times daily ATR for instance?

ofcourse the MA`s need to be different for the daily.
would 15/30/100/150/200 MA be alright?
  • #57
  • Aug 12, 2013 3:28am Aug 12, 2013 3:28am
Quoting smilee89
You don't get the point. Since the "follow up" entries are not steady, there is no a strict TP. TP should be bigger than whole previous entries' losses to cover drawdown (floating losses) + some profit. Approx. TP for 2nd entry is 1st entry loss + 1st entry TP. Approx. TP for 3nd entry is 2-3 times 1 st entry TP. Approx. TP for 4nd entry is 4-6 times 1 st entry TP. Once again, it is not accurate, it depends on distance between SMA's.
Great thread bro! Keep it up!
  • #58
  • Aug 12, 2013 4:26am Aug 12, 2013 4:26am
Quoting smilee89
Pairs: Any pair (I trade EU, GU, AU, EJ, GJ, UCAD, UCHF, EC and also XU and Oil) Time Frame: Any TF Using only 5 simple moving averages Sma_30 (Close) Sma_60 (Close) Sma_200 (Close) Sma_300 (Close) Sma_400 (Close) For Long: If 10-11 consecutive bars' Low (or more) are above Sma_30 and Sma_30 is above Sma_60 and Sma_60 is above Sma_200 and Sma_200 is above Sma_400 (not using sma_300 in this condition) – than wait for price to close below Sma_60 (Close<Sma_60). If price closed below Sma_60 (Close<Sma_60) - Open first Buy Market Order on next bar....
Its been a while since I last post in here. Saw your thread on the most recent tab/section of the forum and decided to read it seeing the Topic is catchy.

I like the fact that you are using MAs instead of some very fancy indi. Its a good start. problem though is that: You have failed to state your barrier/hemisphere.

How do I know the trend is up/down? You said go long when 10 - 11 consecutive candles does xyz etc. You have a good system only its missing some important elements.

Your MM is not OK (Sorry if am judging you...just trying to help). From what I see, you are Dollar-cost-Averaging. Its effect is great when the whole trades comes around but what IF.....?

Its like martingale you know.
My suggestion is this:

Instead of 30,60,200,300,400 SMAs, why not use only the first three (30, 60 and 200)? Use the 200 SMA as your trend determinant. If price is above it, you only favor buys and vice versa. The other two should be used for re-entries, market phase, etc.

You are using TP and SL. Why not use another indi for exits. Like say, MACD.
I aint trying to overhaul your trading system, but just trying to give you my two cents. Think I have said enough. A chart they say is worth more than a thousand words.

I on purpose did not mark my entries and exits. The attached is just for you to rethink.

Trade well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdm1.png Size: 22 KB
  • #59
  • Aug 12, 2013 5:51am Aug 12, 2013 5:51am
Quoting yonnie
{quote} thank you Smilee for your reply..........I get the general reasoning now concerning TP`s. could you give me a general idea for the TP of the first trade for a DAILY system? x times daily ATR for instance? ofcourse the MA`s need to be different for the daily. would 15/30/100/150/200 MA be alright?
For daily chart its the same SMA's.
I also try to figure a new way to define 1st entry's TP by using ATR, but 'til then I use in pips ~150 for daily chart.
  • #60
  • Aug 12, 2013 5:59am Aug 12, 2013 5:59am
Quoting hefhem911
{quote} Its been a while since I last post in here. Saw your thread on the most recent tab/section of the forum and decided to read it seeing the Topic is catchy. I like the fact that you are using MAs instead of some very fancy indi. Its a good start. problem though is that: You have failed to state your barrier/hemisphere. How do I know the trend is up/down? You said go long when 10 - 11 consecutive candles does xyz etc. You have a good system only its missing some important elements. Your MM is not OK (Sorry if am judging you...just trying to...
1. When 10-11 bars are above Sma_30 - the trend is UP - so after price closes below sam60, the trade is Long. And vice versa for Short.
2.Once again, the lotsize is not strict size , but it's strict ratio (1:1:3:6), you can use it as 0.01 Lot, 0.01 Lot, 0.03 Lot and 0.06 Lot. instead of using 1.1 lot (or 0.11) at 1st entry, I take lower risk in 1st entry and give my self 3 more levels to enter again if price does not go with me at the1st entry or later-on at the follow up entries.
3. I don't like using many indi's. These 5 sma's are great enough to trigger the trade(s), and as for the TP and SL - it may change to ATR ratio, but 'til then, it is still in pips.
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