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  • #826,801
  • Aug 16, 2013 1:35pm Aug 16, 2013 1:35pm
On weekly, there's a space (orange box) that price can't seem to penetrate - the left shoulder high from start of 2012.

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With each conspiracy, i add a new layer to my hat.
  • #826,802
  • Aug 16, 2013 1:51pm Aug 16, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} maaaaaan, now you tell me. k.

u have too.. larger levels especially. 57/58 is half way to 3999.x
bbl
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #826,803
  • Aug 16, 2013 1:53pm Aug 16, 2013 1:53pm
1.34xx next week.... maybe 1.346x

Feddy on Wednesday

drinkie time
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Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #826,804
  • Aug 16, 2013 2:00pm Aug 16, 2013 2:00pm
Quoting attila
we still have a HH and so the up trend is still intact in my (very humble, lol) opinion.
Are talking about 3380 being a high? I consider it noise tbh...3372 needs retest b4 we call that a high. But i agree direction is still up. If it goes down i have 3284 instead of 3270. But whats 18 pips in eurusd ?
  • #826,805
  • Aug 16, 2013 2:51pm Aug 16, 2013 2:51pm
G, PM.
  • #826,806
  • Aug 16, 2013 2:53pm Aug 16, 2013 2:53pm
Forex is just like card counting in black jack.
Every non face card increases the chance of a face card next.

Every pip up increases the chance of a pip down!
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #826,807
  • Aug 16, 2013 3:02pm Aug 16, 2013 3:02pm
And forget about new highs next week.

I'm gonna buy a new house in Southern California next week so I need to lander a lot of dollars.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #826,808
  • Aug 16, 2013 3:02pm Aug 16, 2013 3:02pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Every pip up increases the chance of a pip down!
You're kinda contradicting trend theory here...You dont believe in trends?
  • #826,809
  • Aug 16, 2013 3:07pm Aug 16, 2013 3:07pm
Quoting Alexone
{quote} You're kinda contradicting trend theory here...You dont believe in trends?
He is perfectly correct!!! Why?
The resources needed to produce a green/red bar on any given chart are finite and so the more green bars in a row you find on your chart, the closer you are to the next red bar!!!

This is not the same - in the case of H/T - with tossing a fair-coin. Each time you toss a fair coin, it is most likely that the external conditions are the same and so, you can have very long streaks of heads without getting closer to the next tail at all.

the value of the next toss is independent of the previous results you got! This is not true in the case of forex! the color of the next bar is directly dependent on the colors of the previous bars because of finite resources!!!

The strength of buyers decreases with every successive green bar produced!!!
  • #826,810
  • Aug 16, 2013 3:23pm Aug 16, 2013 3:23pm
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} The resources needed to produce a green/red bar on any given chart are finite and so the more green bars in a row you find on your chart, the closer you are to the next red bar!!! !
You dont know what kind of resources are behind a move. Especially if its in a well placed level. And if i were to choose between a system that lets me SELL under the 1st red bar that appears and another that makes me buy after every red bar i would choose the 1st and not even think about it. And this seems logical to me.
  • #826,811
  • Aug 16, 2013 3:38pm Aug 16, 2013 3:38pm
Quoting Alexone
{quote} You dont know what kind of resources are behind a move. Especially if its in a well placed level. And if i were to choose between a system that lets me SELL under the 1st red bar that appears and another that makes me buy after every red bar i would choose the 1st and not even think about it. And this seems logical to me.
Eurusdd is right, the longer a trend goes in one way, the greater the retrace will be.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #826,812
  • Aug 16, 2013 3:45pm Aug 16, 2013 3:45pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Eurusdd is right, the longer a trend goes in one way, the greater the retrace will be.
I think you are trying to say 'violent'. The more violent a move is the greater the retrace it will be. Probably. Trends are a different story. Anyway, we were talking about individual bars and this discussion is pretty pointless to me as im sure is to every1 here. You are trying to convince me that a man who says 'it will rain today' and he keeps saying that for the next 20 days, and on the 21st it finally rains, the man is right no?
  • #826,813
  • Aug 16, 2013 4:15pm Aug 16, 2013 4:15pm
Quoting Alexone
{quote} I think you are trying to say 'violent'. The more violent a move is the greater the retrace it will be. Probably. Trends are a different story. Anyway, we were talking about individual bars and this discussion is pretty pointless to me as im sure is to every1 here. You are trying to convince me that a man who says 'it will rain today' and he keeps saying that for the next 20 days, and on the 21st it finally rains, the man is right no?
Imo each leg up in a trend increases the chance of a retrace.

Phrase the argument like this: Pretend you're playing a game with a 20 sided die, each number that comes up for the first time "wins", but if you get that number again you lose. So on the first roll it's impossible to lose (first green bar), but on each subsequent roll, your chance of losing increases. As you progress through the game, the odds of losing after each roll increases because the supply of numbers that "win" dwindles.

To equate it for Forex... At price level 1 there may be 500 buyers willing to buy, at price level 1+1 there may only be 425, at level 1+2 there may be 300, etc. Until there are no buyers left and the retrace begins.
  • #826,814
  • Aug 16, 2013 4:34pm Aug 16, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting CJayB
{quote} Imo each leg up in a trend increases the chance of a retrace. Phrase the argument like this: Pretend you're playing a game with a 20 sided die, each number that comes up for the first time "wins", but if you get that number again you lose. So on the first roll it's impossible to lose (first green bar), but on each subsequent roll, your chance of losing increases. As you progress through the game, the odds of losing after each roll increases because the supply of numbers that "win" dwindles. To equate it for Forex... At price level 1...
What? You dont like my 'rainy days' analogy? I thought that was pretty good. And it doesnt mean that after 20 days of sun u get 12 days of rain just because there were so much sun in the 1st place. It can only rain for 1 day and then back to sunny days we go. Sun is a finite resource as well, no? U get this 2nd analogy?

Yes each leg up increases the chance of a retrace but you CANNOT DEFINE how far that leg up will be (assuming u dont know anything about support resistance) or how big of a retrace it will be when that leg up is finished! In other words dont sell in an uptrend unless u have a very good reason to do so. You cant be selling in an uptrend just cos the last 10 bars were green. Thats stupid!
  • #826,815
  • Edited 6:29pm Aug 16, 2013 6:07pm | Edited 6:29pm
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I think we are entering soon in a resistance zone. Not sure if there are enough fundamentals to break it, we will see. Not sure, when to enter in a Short and keep it for 1 month.

Anyhow I am looking to this chart: Aug double top, previous high at same level and missing correction to a considerable Fibo level, I see only short entry in the next 100 - 200 pips
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #826,816
  • Aug 16, 2013 6:29pm Aug 16, 2013 6:29pm
helllou it is i hihihi
  • #826,817
  • Aug 16, 2013 6:41pm Aug 16, 2013 6:41pm
Quoting Alexone
{quote} Are talking about 3380 being a high? I consider it noise tbh...3372 needs retest b4 we call that a high. But i agree direction is still up. If it goes down i have 3284 instead of 3270. But whats 18 pips in eurusd ?
sorry, I meant HL, not HH..
  • #826,818
  • Aug 16, 2013 8:06pm Aug 16, 2013 8:06pm
Quoting Alexone
{quote} What? You dont like my 'rainy days' analogy? I thought that was pretty good. And it doesnt mean that after 20 days of sun u get 12 days of rain just because there were so much sun in the 1st place. It can only rain for 1 day and then back to sunny days we go. Sun is a finite resource as well, no? U get this 2nd analogy? Yes each leg up increases the chance of a retrace but you CANNOT DEFINE how far that leg up will be (assuming u dont know anything about support resistance) or how big of a retrace it will be when that leg up is finished!...
Hmmm.. your sun analogy does not fit here.. the sun does not cause rain neither does the lack of sun(night) cause rain..

In the card counting example it is possible in theory to have every card to be nonface until you run out of them... the odds increase but it isnt absolute... thats y fib retracements are so popular right?
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
  • #826,819
  • Aug 16, 2013 8:22pm Aug 16, 2013 8:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} what i am playing most traders dont see. its not mainstream. the disadvantage is, the less that see it. the less that make it reality. many took the down move at the time yesterday as a bear signal.. i did also, except it was a signal to me to wait for a bounce.. the bounce many took as a bull signal, i took it as a bear bounce, before the real move. of course i will fu, and not factor in all variables or just fu and miss something obvious. such as a old pa target ect. ... all and all it keeps the lights on, even old hatch there dont work....
You have a unique viewpoint as I slowly know a little more.. the balance you seek resonates with me because isn't that the basis of the market? i.e. to seek the balance between supply and demand.. of course there are invisible hands of the market who wants to move to a certain price for reasons unknown but the counter move to balance will build up.. its like pushing a ball underwater...
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
  • #826,820
  • Edited Aug 17, 2013 2:54am Aug 16, 2013 8:26pm | Edited Aug 17, 2013 2:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} you can,, i dont see a chart.. is 3233 inside?
Im out for the weekend.. I remember seeing the number a few times trying to measure and find your levels... I think its one of the levels thats part of the mid to 3066.. might be there after the event.. once I find it I post it later or tomorrow...


i was trying to find 3066 target and this got into the picture.. i use the shadows because they for a good support positions

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I still dont think I'm doing it correct... I look a lot on st...
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
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