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  • #826,401
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:29pm Aug 15, 2013 4:29pm
Quoting attila
OK let me just make it clear now so I'll be the first to say it.. 3363 is NOT a swing level.. it will only retrace here.. final target from the 2754 low is 3450 and possible 3700... just as I mentioned when we were there.... go read my posts starting july 9th... when everybody was going short with gator...
From EW perspective we have clearly good chance out of this position now to reach 3428 to 3458

If towards 3672 or simply 370 I do think, that we have to retrace deeper beforehand (maybe 3060-3090 area) to form something that would look like a valid EW pattern
  • #826,402
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:31pm Aug 15, 2013 4:31pm
this ass chart goes back over 3 years ... check out the levels
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #826,403
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:31pm Aug 15, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting Dr.Zain
{quote} Now should i wait till euro reaches 1.3377??? and many thanks for your last post and Honestly i did not read your post as Server problem in my area.
Sure, if u can handle the loss. chances are u might BE tomorrow
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #826,404
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:32pm Aug 15, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} says the guy longing all the way down from 3415, read those also. time line them and when reading mine.. notice the s/l.. and also notice i said from the get-go i was ignoring the eu charts that pointed to 3739. and going with the usdx... so all were warned beforehand.
A least I didn't drive anybody into the ground at 2754 as you did, having them sell the absolute bottom.
  • #826,405
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:35pm Aug 15, 2013 4:35pm
Quoting attila
{quote} A least I didn't drive anybody into the ground at 2754 as you did, having them sell the absolute bottom.
nope, that was your buddy infinitus... if you want, I'm going to help you out on that.
  • #826,406
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:36pm Aug 15, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting 2046
{quote} Retrospectively there is always something that fits across all TFs and indicators and what have you... ...and I am being told to be (or not to be) obsessed about levels - now that makes me laugh



Na, Attila is right: most importantly is direction. Or the question: how high is the probability, that price will retrace/reverse or break a certain level

So you have to build a system, which may give you a clue for that probability


there are several ways to get such a system
  • #826,407
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:36pm Aug 15, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} nope, that was your buddy infinitus... if you want, I'm going to help you out on that.
I don't know about that... but gator was going short below that.. don't need any help.
  • #826,408
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:37pm Aug 15, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Sure, if u can handle the loss. chances are u might BE tomorrow
Sure i could handle the loss, in your post you mentioned 1.3377 sure or it might be 1.3277? ignore me if i did not got you....
  • #826,409
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:38pm Aug 15, 2013 4:38pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Na, Attila is right: most importantly is direction. Or the question: how high is the probability, that price will retrace/reverse or break a certain level So you have to build a system, which may give you a clue for that probability there are several ways to get such a system
levels are broken/rejected based on HOW the price goes into them.. if you understand that, you had it made.
  • #826,410
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:39pm Aug 15, 2013 4:39pm
Quoting attila
{quote} A least I didn't drive anybody into the ground at 2754 as you did, having them sell the absolute bottom.

damn u live in ozz.... i was long just above then...... why dont you read.... and while reading you can see where i closed too early.. i make lots of mistakes. u dont have to invent one.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #826,411
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:40pm Aug 15, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} nope, that was your buddy infinitus... if you want, I'm going to help you out on that.

quick reminder, and I already explained that to you:


at the time being, when we approached that low, I reported that I had closed all my shorts, even so my EW count showed a good probability, that we would see another wave down.


But if you can not remember, I can help YOU out........
  • #826,412
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:41pm Aug 15, 2013 4:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} damn u live in ozz.... i was long just above then...... why dont you read.... and while reading you can see where i closed too early.. i make lots of mistakes. u dont have to invent one.
of course you were long.. I'm not going to argue with that.
  • #826,413
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:43pm Aug 15, 2013 4:43pm
Quoting attila
{quote} levels are broken/rejected based on HOW the price goes into them.. if you understand that, you had it made.

Yes, you can see it from the price action as well as the momentum distribution at the levels/trendlines/channels etc.

Volume or in Forex Tick-Volume is a fairly good indicator too.
  • #826,414
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:46pm Aug 15, 2013 4:46pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} quick reminder, and I always explained that to you: at the time being, when we approached that low, I reported that I had closed all my shorts, even so my EW count showed a good probability, that we would see another wave down. But if you can not remember, I can help YOU out........
I'm laughing my ass off... finally you offered the chance to ram the flag-pole back up YOUR ass

I'm not digging now, but everyone is free to look it up. When we were down in that 27xx-area, there was a guy who presented a wave-count, he wasn't too sure about.
I told him take a look at Sid's count at http://elliottwavepredictions.com/ and think about that one for a moment, when YOU told me that going with this count could be a huge mistake, for a huuuuuge DOWN-wave could take part.

Everyone is free to look it up, I don't care.

...and yes, I know, I have changed, you are disappointed, lost respect etc. I know all that, but how could I not?
  • #826,415
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:50pm Aug 15, 2013 4:50pm
Ah, btw... case closed with that. In the end, there will be (again... sigh...) mass complaints about me... someone puts me on ignore for speaking out the facts and receive lots of consolation via email...

End of that train of thought, back to GTA.
  • #826,416
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:56pm Aug 15, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Na, Attila is right: most importantly is direction. Or the question: how high is the probability, that price will retrace/reverse or break a certain level So you have to build a system, which may give you a clue for that probability there are several ways to get such a system
Yes, I see where you guys are coming from, that is all fine and not subject of a debate for me. Levels, direction, tf, probabilities, whatever does the trick for you - I don't mind. I simply queried how the number 3363 was derived (out of genuine interest nothing more). I see myself outside this discussion of level obsession, rights or wrongs. I am comfortable with my own methods - mainly ichimoku as you know. I don't feel I need advice on how to trade, not that you meant it this way. We all know about the fractal nature of PA and hence - as pointed out by others - money can be made both ways. I treat each TF individually yet the probablilties you mention may be influenced by neighbour TFs.

anyway, are you back from hols now? saw that glacier picture with much envy. already looking forward to winter now.
  • #826,417
  • Aug 15, 2013 5:00pm Aug 15, 2013 5:00pm
Quoting USD-Bear
USD intentions not very clear, looking for 10.578 for the moment USDOLLAR D1: {image}
POI @ 10.649
Still think 10.578 is more likely

USDOLLAR D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0063.png Size: 88 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #826,418
  • Aug 15, 2013 5:01pm Aug 15, 2013 5:01pm
comeon guys, not that I don't occasionally appreciate the entertaining value of the usual pickering in here - but all of you sure have some respect for each other. Everybody gets it right or wrong sometimes, no need to rub it all in - you all deserve each others respect I would think
  • #826,419
  • Aug 15, 2013 5:02pm Aug 15, 2013 5:02pm
OK.. I have a transatlantic flight with a 3 year old toddler coming up, and that scares the living crap out of me.. so I'll have to start to prepare mentally for that.. taking a few days off before would do, me thinks..

As to swing levels, yes there is a way to figure out where they are.. it's all embedded in the price.. I asked this question before "How come if you trade perfectly according to PA, with the right entry, right SL you will only break even in the long run?" That's where I found MY answer..
  • #826,420
  • Aug 15, 2013 5:04pm Aug 15, 2013 5:04pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
Ah, btw... case closed with that. In the end, there will be (again... sigh...) mass complaints about me... someone puts me on ignore for speaking out the facts and receive lots of consolation via email... End of that train of thought, back to GTA.
oh well i usually ignore the children, just waiting for the real move now.. up down or wherever.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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