USD/JPY Discussion | Page 1796 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,901
  • Aug 14, 2013 12:12pm Aug 14, 2013 12:12pm
Quoting randerson
{quote} I see your viewpoint and am very bearish on the yen long term. However, I believe the market will shake out weak longs by probing under the last major low @95.80. This also correlates with probes above 1.34 on the EUR/USD before heading lower under 1.30. I just don't think the market is going to be friendly and throw us an easy trade all the way up above 100 without a little shakeout first Thoughts?
To be honest, this is a very difficult trade, there are so many options and scenarios that can trigger at this point, that it is virtually impossible to predict. Especially when using just one chart. This is where other currency pairs come into play.

If U.J goes down, two interesting targets to go long would be either:


1- 95.5, as per a 5 month support trend line (the solid green line on my chart)
2- 94.6 if it breaks trend support and holds at the end of a bullish bat pattern, and also becoming confluent with the 88.6 BC leg of the butterfly

This bearish divergence is also supported by GBP/JPY where a bearish cypher is almost a day away from completion.


On the other hand, seeing as Cable currently has a bearish bias, and S&P seems to be picking up. The way I'm seeing it, the dollar is starting to be very bullish, maybe it would be a better idea if you go short on the GBP/JPY, we all know to never bet against a bullish dollar.

Time will tell.
  • #35,902
  • Edited 12:54pm Aug 14, 2013 12:36pm | Edited 12:54pm
Quoting randerson
{quote} I see your viewpoint and am very bearish on the yen long term. However, I believe the market will shake out weak longs by probing under the last major low @95.80. This also correlates with probes above 1.34 on the EUR/USD before heading lower under 1.30. I just don't think the market is going to be friendly and throw us an easy trade all the way up above 100 without a little shakeout first Thoughts?

atm, "easy" trade to many will be rounded top -- makes .uj look like it's about to roll over. too obvious. obv things usually don't happen.

the PA of the last 24+ hrs is unusual for the normally meandering .uj
  • #35,903
  • Aug 14, 2013 3:59pm Aug 14, 2013 3:59pm
Quoting Ck87
Downtrend seems to be over in short term. Will look to buy dips. Hoping to go long 96-96.25 sometime in next hours, if can we retouch those levels tonight. Should have had a buy stop at 95.90


Now I think we topped out short term near 98.50 and will head back down to 97.60/97.05 levels.
  • #35,904
  • Aug 14, 2013 4:49pm Aug 14, 2013 4:49pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} atm, "easy" trade to many will be rounded top -- makes .uj look like it's about to roll over. too obvious. obv things usually don't happen. the PA of the last 24+ hrs is unusual for the normally meandering .uj

interestly...the SP500 is showing a similiar rounded top
  • #35,905
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:00pm Aug 14, 2013 5:00pm
Quoting Doboy408
{quote} interestly...the SP500 is showing a similiar rounded top
same w/nikkei... only with .uj, it looks like someone sat down with a compass and swept out an arc, then drew a very tight .uj PA right underneath it. strange.
  • #35,906
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:05pm Aug 14, 2013 5:05pm
USD had a massive rally now sitting in 98-98.3 range.

Yes we had a Doji on daily candle closed, but only signals indecision. It only suggests a reversal because it stopped going up
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #35,907
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:23pm Aug 14, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} same w/nikkei... only with .uj, it looks like someone sat down with a compass and swept out an arc, then drew a very tight .uj PA right underneath it. strange.
it feels like the calm before the storm
  • #35,908
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:34pm Aug 14, 2013 5:34pm
Quoting John Gray
USD had a massive rally now sitting in 98-98.3 range. Yes we had a Doji on daily candle closed, but only signals indecision. It only suggests a reversal because it stopped going up
usd futs contract shows a very nice down channel beg jul 11 (usually best to view chan's w/lo TF). the latest rally within the channel stopped at the upper rail, then went down a couple clicks (the doji)... so reasonable chance of b/o with some decent data.

of course .uj is more than just the usd --- my guess: BOJ will have it's way (hmm, that sounds kinda catchy ) --- net, net - .uj goes up.
  • #35,909
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:08pm Aug 14, 2013 6:08pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} same w/nikkei... only with .uj, it looks like someone sat down with a compass and swept out an arc, then drew a very tight .uj PA right underneath it. strange.
S&P, Nikkei, DJ, and USD/JPY are all highly correlated.

Seems that all 3 indexes are heading up after a short bear correction.

It's safe to assume that U/J will probably rally north up to 99.3, especially since there will be no hawkish news or data coming from JPY this week.
  • #35,910
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:15pm Aug 14, 2013 6:15pm
Quoting xRedStaRx
{quote} S&P, Nikkei, DJ, and USD/JPY are all highly correlated. Seems that all 3 indexes are heading up after a short bear correction. It's safe to assume that U/J will probably rally north up to 99.3, especially since there will be no hawkish news or data coming from JPY this week.

I can see 99.30 for sure.. but first must come down some.
  • #35,911
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:21pm Aug 14, 2013 6:21pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I can see 99.30 for sure.. but first must come down some.
WTH... s/o at 97.88 ---well, wait, it does look like it's turning at yesterday's low.
  • #35,912
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:47pm Aug 14, 2013 6:47pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} WTH... s/o at 97.88 ---well, wait, it does look like it's turning at yesterday's low.
broke yesterday's low... what's going on???

i know, it's that damn vouch someone gave me yesterday!

where's iqyu5an ?

take it away!!! PLEASE
  • #35,913
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:52pm Aug 14, 2013 6:52pm
is this an SL hunting before reaching the top!!
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #35,914
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:54pm Aug 14, 2013 6:54pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} broke yesterday's low... what's going on??? i know, it's that damn vouch someone gave me yesterday! where's iqyu5an ? take it away!!! PLEASE
what about your vouch
I see that you no appreciate self esteem that much lol
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #35,915
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:59pm Aug 14, 2013 6:59pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} what about your vouch I see that you no appreciate self esteem that much lol
i trade for one thing: MONEY ...to be successful, i've found that i must never see any evidence that i know what i'm doing. it's odd maybe, but that's me.

therefore, no vouches pls. otherwise i have to use diff computer, ip addr, name, personality, style, focus, etc. i used to just disappear when vouched. don't want to start that again.
  • #35,916
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:11pm Aug 14, 2013 7:11pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} i trade for one thing: MONEY ...to be successful, i've found that i must never see any evidence that i know what i'm doing. it's odd maybe, but that's me. therefore, no vouches pls. otherwise i have to use diff computer, ip addr, name, personality, style, focus, etc. i used to just disappear when vouched. don't want to start that again.
So you admit that somehow to succeed in forex is about an objective view of the market and here I mean that no emotions to be involved in your trading style.
well we don't usually see traders like you and I respect your method . Hope all the sucess for you " plenty of money of course "
cheers
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #35,917
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:19pm Aug 14, 2013 7:19pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} i trade for one thing: MONEY ...to be successful, i've found that i must never see any evidence that i know what i'm doing. it's odd maybe, but that's me. therefore, no vouches pls. otherwise i have to use diff computer, ip addr, name, personality, style, focus, etc. i used to just disappear when vouched. don't want to start that again.
Seems to me you have developed a strong case of OCD, most probably triggered by an intense emotional trauma in the past.

I bet you trade with tight SLs as well.
  • #35,918
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:21pm Aug 14, 2013 7:21pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} So you admit that somehow to succeed in forex is about an objective view of the market and here I mean that no emotions to be involved in your trading style. well we don't usually see traders like you and I respect your method . Hope all the sucess for you " plenty of money of course " cheers
i'm not really aware of emotions. it's the subconscious that i need - (i think everyone does) - maybe they're not aware of it. the subconscious is about attitude. to trade well, i need the right attitude for ME, which is "i know nothing, i going to make a mistake at any minute if i'm not real careful" ...so no rank, standing, vouches, etc, etc.

perhaps you agree?

it would be nice if FF allowed you to opt out of the vouch system.
  • #35,919
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:23pm Aug 14, 2013 7:23pm
Quoting xRedStaRx
{quote} Seems to me you have developed a strong case of OCD, most probably triggered by an intense emotional trauma in the past. I bet you trade with tight SLs as well.
tight sometimes. sometimes none at all.

OCD? i tend to philosophize before i psychologize.
  • #35,920
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:25pm Aug 14, 2013 7:25pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} i'm not really aware of emotions. it's the subconscious that i need - (i think everyone does) - maybe they're not aware of it. the subconscious is about attitude. to trade well, i need the right attitude for ME, which is "i know nothing, i going to make a mistake at any minute if i'm not real careful" ...so no rank, standing, vouches, etc, etc. perhaps you agree? it would be nice if FF allowed you to opt out of the vouch system.
ah ok I fully understand . Maybe you can email one of the modertors to remove the vouch system from your account , I am sure they could understand and solve your issue. give it a try anyway
Get Rich or Die Tryin
298 traders viewing now