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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,841
  • Aug 13, 2013 9:17am Aug 13, 2013 9:17am
Quoting Yuchen
I had a pending short order at 97.15 last week, fortunately, it was expired yesterday before the rally up. I am thinking about to place another short order at 98.45 with s/l at 99.05. I drew the line connect the daily chart high and it seems 98.45 is on the trend line now, also I can see 98.45 is EMA365 on the 4H chart, which gives me the idea to try short there.
it just now kissed the low from mid-jul @ ~98.25 --- can't see a clear tl match at that level, but does look like minor res

i have been watching the main lower tl from mid jan this year (someone obs'd earlier that it couldn't be a double bottom because the two lows weren't equal - that's because it was bouncing off a rising tl!) which has many confirmations in higher members of that system. it appears to be breaking the 2nd tl in the main system right now.

anyway, question: what TF's do you find produce the best tl fits with .uj? (i've found that for .eu, the lowest TF's unquestionably give the best tl fits and have for a long time)
  • #35,842
  • Aug 13, 2013 9:17am Aug 13, 2013 9:17am
Quoting xRedStaRx
Great shorting opportunity at 98.5 This one should go down as far as 94.8
Come on, write that it will drop to 80.0 in 2 days, that's exactly the same bs as You've wrote
If You're posting numbers like that add some charts and rationals which stands behind it
  • #35,843
  • Aug 13, 2013 9:19am Aug 13, 2013 9:19am
Quoting xRedStaRx
Great shorting opportunity at 98.5 This one should go down as far as 94.8
yes, i'm curious: why do you like 98.5?
  • #35,844
  • Aug 13, 2013 9:34am Aug 13, 2013 9:34am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} lolz! ah-so... something else i notice is that the down-trend since the beginning of aug is forming an old fashioned rounded bottom below a resistance level of about 97.0 ... i have entered a long on the expectation that it will really fly when resistance is broken.
got out of 96.81 long from yesterday as price broke back below 98. will buy again at 97.5 if it pulls back that far... if not, will long again around 98
  • #35,845
  • Aug 13, 2013 9:50am Aug 13, 2013 9:50am
  • #35,846
  • Aug 13, 2013 10:09am Aug 13, 2013 10:09am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} got out of 96.81 long from yesterday as price broke back below 98. will buy again at 97.5 if it pulls back that far... if not, will long again around 98
hmm... looks like we're gonna consolidate for a few hours before continuing upward. i'm outta here.
  • #35,847
  • Aug 13, 2013 12:29pm Aug 13, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} hmm... looks like we're gonna consolidate for a few hours before continuing upward. i'm outta here.
.uj is quietly tippy-toeing up to the starting line at 98.25 ... watch out!

sprint for 98.95 could begin at any moment
  • #35,848
  • Aug 13, 2013 1:00pm Aug 13, 2013 1:00pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} .uj is quietly tippy-toeing up to the starting line at 98.25 ... watch out! sprint for 98.95 could begin at any moment
okay, maybe it'll be a walk to 98.95. we've gained 2% in less than 24 h, way more than ANY OTHER PAIR ON THE BOARD. time to slow down a little.
  • #35,849
  • Aug 13, 2013 3:25pm Aug 13, 2013 3:25pm
okay. found one overall tech config that fits .uj today: draw a line from the high @ 1843 est yesterday to the low @ 1520 est today, and you get an inner trendline with 6 confirmations. that puts the inner tl just under 98.50 in London tomorrow --- and, if it swings as far above as it did below yesterday noon (~60p), it would hit 98.95 target (the 75.4 fib of last weeks down move) before Frankfurt.

looks like it will swing a little below the inner tl soon, so placing buy order @ 98 w/97.86 SL and 98.90 TP ... afterward, hope to catch a little bit of retrace.
  • #35,850
  • Aug 13, 2013 3:29pm Aug 13, 2013 3:29pm
Gidday Candle

US/JPY

in that trade as well US/JPY 99.8TP
  • #35,851
  • Aug 13, 2013 3:48pm Aug 13, 2013 3:48pm
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday Candle US/JPY in that trade as well US/JPY 99.8TP
gidday... if i can to 99.8 in 2 steps with a pull back i'll be pretty happy
  • #35,852
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:28pm Aug 13, 2013 7:28pm
Quoting xRedStaRx
{quote} 1- Previous market structure, it used to be both R and S. 2- The current downtrend is moving in AB-CD patterns, this price quote is the 61.8 level of retracement. 3- A possible butterfly might be forming, in which case this has potential to go all the way down to 94.7 to be valid. Price range for shorts was actually 98.3-98.6, looks like I missed the train. We will see. {image}
i see it was support back in apr/may and res at end of july... but for fib's i'm looking at the down move from last week and today price found support at the 50% retrace. 61.8% is ~98.35 and 78.4% is at ~98.90 (just above my targe). in terms of how far, i think i see an evenly divided impulse beginning at 98.40 that would plausibly end around 98.90 if what we have been muddling through for the last whatever number of hours is a 4th wave. right at the moment, i worry that the damn thing isn't gonna let me in long from 98.00 -- may jump in above.

but, back to your case: which fibo system are you using that puts 61.8 at 98.50?
  • #35,853
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:35pm Aug 13, 2013 7:35pm
yen index is in light support.... going to short with tight sl. if sl hit..... am happy
not euphoria follower
  • #35,854
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:39pm Aug 13, 2013 7:39pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} i see it was support back in apr/may and res at end of july... but for fib's i'm looking at the down move from last week and today price found support at the 50% retrace. 61.8% is ~98.35 and 78.4% is at ~98.90 (just above my targe). in terms of how far, i think i see an evenly divided impulse beginning at 98.40 that would plausibly end around 98.90 if what we have been muddling through for the last whatever number of hours is a 4th wave. right at the moment, i worry that the damn thing isn't gonna let me in long from 98.00 -- may jump in...
The 61.8 is the most common correction level on trends. It should be found quite a lot in waves and harmonic patterns.

I used that one according to ABCD downtrend. Which basically is a Bear > (0.618-0.786) Bull > Bear > (0.618-0.786) Bull...etc

Also the time it takes to go from one ABCD to the next like the 3 drives pattern, should be roughly equal, as shown on the UJ chart.
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  • #35,855
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:41pm Aug 13, 2013 7:41pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} i see it was support back in apr/may and res at end of july... but for fib's i'm looking at the down move from last week and today price found support at the 50% retrace. 61.8% is ~98.35 and 78.4% is at ~98.90 (just above my targe). in terms of how far, i think i see an evenly divided impulse beginning at 98.40 that would plausibly end around 98.90 if what we have been muddling through for the last whatever number of hours is a 4th wave. right at the moment, i worry that the damn thing isn't gonna let me in long from 98.00 -- may jump in...
ok, i'm with ya the fibo's just upside down on the chart...

well, you gotta weigh everything that's in play... for me, i guess i put a lot of weight on the l/t trendline support from jan, plus i think the BOJ is just dying to take this thing past 104!

i we'll know by tomorrow
  • #35,856
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:43pm Aug 13, 2013 7:43pm
and the ratio depends on which TF u use ....
Quoting xRedStaRx
{quote} The 61.8 is the most common correction level on trends. It should be found quite a lot in waves and harmonic patterns. I used that one according to ABCD downtrend. Which basically is a Bear > (0.618-0.786) Bull > Bear > (0.618-0.786) Bull...etc {image}
not euphoria follower
  • #35,857
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:48pm Aug 13, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting iqyu5an
and the ratio depends on which TF u use .... {quote}
over the years i've never paid much attention to this class of patterns for that very reason (scale factor or TF variation), but a lot members here post them... i should put learning more about this stuff on my to-do list.
  • #35,858
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:52pm Aug 13, 2013 7:52pm
shorters waiting, but uj can go to 98,800...
  • #35,859
  • Aug 13, 2013 7:54pm Aug 13, 2013 7:54pm
Quoting iqyu5an
and the ratio depends on which TF u use .... {quote}
Could you be more clear ?
  • #35,860
  • Aug 13, 2013 8:14pm Aug 13, 2013 8:14pm
come back down should be early... easy 98500, maybe 98800...
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