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Similarity: A Practical Approach

  • #681
  • Aug 12, 2013 11:27am Aug 12, 2013 11:27am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Closed my longs +66 pips. That's $1K back after a not-so-good morning -$3K.
In demo or real ?
  • #682
  • Aug 12, 2013 11:30am Aug 12, 2013 11:30am
Does cleared zone stand for resistance now?
Time matters most
  • #683
  • Aug 12, 2013 11:30am Aug 12, 2013 11:30am
Quoting metta87
{quote} In demo or real ?
Demo
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #684
  • Aug 12, 2013 11:31am Aug 12, 2013 11:31am
Quoting blackqn
Does cleared zone stand for resistance now?
Which tf?

EDIT:
Are you refering to the 15M one?
In general, no... it doesn't stop a move... it causes turbulence. There is memory around that price.
So in one sense... yes, resistance from maybe a time perspective... ie how long before the resistance fades.

Eurusdd was alluding to this in his later posts and his other thread about resistance bands.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #685
  • Aug 12, 2013 12:47pm Aug 12, 2013 12:47pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Which tf? EDIT: Are you refering to the 15M one? In general, no... it doesn't stop a move... it causes turbulence. There is memory around that price. So in one sense... yes, resistance from maybe a time perspective... ie how long before the resistance fades. Eurusdd was alluding to this in his later posts and his other thread about resistance bands.
15M tf, I must read this resistance related thread yet...

Vlady, one question. There was observation that trend change may happen in similarity mode only. How to treat it during dissimilarity. I haven't found yet clear answer to this except statement that during dissimilarity trend has to continue, but for example when looking at 15M tf what the trend is for it? higher TF's swing or...?
Time matters most
  • #686
  • Aug 12, 2013 1:33pm Aug 12, 2013 1:33pm
Quoting mobthehop
vlady, 1. I am using Stoch 75,1,1 myself, just set it to 300 in the indicator as I thought most here trade M15 with period 300 Stochs... 2. Daily Forecast - I was referring to your posts #608 and #623 - would you mind to share your excel table (you can PM me if you prefer) as I really like to explore this further (without reinventing the wheel that is...) Thanks in advance / Mop
Back home. Here's the file. Hope it makes sense.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls EURUSD-DAILYDATA.xls   481 KB | 376 downloads
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #687
  • Aug 12, 2013 1:43pm Aug 12, 2013 1:43pm
Quoting blackqn
{quote} Vlady, one question. There was observation that trend change may happen in similarity mode only. How to treat it during dissimilarity. I haven't found yet clear answer to this except statement that during dissimilarity trend has to continue, but for example when looking at 15M tf what the trend is for it? higher TF's swing or...?
I debated with some guys as to the tradability of Dissimilarity in general.

I reasoned that when DS starts, in reality, the zone has not yet been "Born"... and thus we came up with the pregnancy/birth analogy that we sometimes joke about.
I said that you can only trade the zone that is real... when DS ends or in other words when Similarity has returned.

The fact is, during the DS Start I have seen changes in trend. I have seen ZZT and ZZB happen in the DS Start Zone.
When it ends and Similarity is back... I find that trend continues. But sometimes (alot less than normal) I see trend changes during similiarity.

If a Zone has been born.... and price is below it, we argued that price must rise in order to clear it..... but if Dissimilarity occurred in the first place, it must mean that an arbitrage opportunity has occurred and price moved away from the BAR that CREATED DS. For price to return back to that price... then......it must coincide with a change in trend. Another DS (that produces a move in the opposite direction back towards the first DS)?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #688
  • Aug 12, 2013 2:03pm Aug 12, 2013 2:03pm
Does anyone see that M15 dissim just ended in RV-1 and M30 dissim started in both RV-1 and RV-2?
Time matters most
  • #689
  • Aug 12, 2013 2:05pm Aug 12, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} [...]But sometimes (alot less than normal) I see trend changes during similiarity. If a Zone has been born.... and price is below it, we argued that price must rise in order to clear it..... but if Dissimilarity occurred in the first place, it must mean that an arbitrage opportunity has occurred and price moved away from the BAR that CREATED DS. For price to return back to that price... then......it must coincide with a change in trend. Another DS (that produces a move in the opposite direction back towards the first DS)?
Thanks
Time matters most
  • #690
  • Aug 12, 2013 3:49pm Aug 12, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting blackqn
Does anyone see that M15 dissim just ended in RV-1 and M30 dissim started in both RV-1 and RV-2?
That's a "black hole" price range: 1.3310 to 1.3312, price will come back here and clear it with force.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #691
  • Aug 12, 2013 3:51pm Aug 12, 2013 3:51pm
Quoting blackqn
{quote} Thanks
Sorry about the ramble. It's never a direct simple answer or black and white. Trading is like that.
DS = Change In Trend
SM = Trend
Price always returns back to what caused DS.... sooner or later.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #692
  • Aug 12, 2013 7:39pm Aug 12, 2013 7:39pm
vlady - thanks for the daily data - will have a look

Cheers / Mop
  • #693
  • Aug 13, 2013 3:54am Aug 13, 2013 3:54am
1H
Next swing has to be a top.

15M
Born DS Zone has supported the move.

My longs are in play (no SL --- not that I recommend it, just trying to trade like this for a good month)
Anyone notice the "black hole" prices?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1H.PNG Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-15M.PNG Size: 46 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #694
  • Aug 13, 2013 4:15am Aug 13, 2013 4:15am
Hi Vlady i saw at your statments that you talk about Gap in Price ! This is The Exact Thing That If everyone Know it Correctly can Predict Future Price 100% cause Future Price must back To Past Gaps before any Important move in the Market, That Was around 2007-2008 That i saw one Guy Can Predict the Market 100% !
but how ? When i will be More Intimate with he i Discover Some Strange things That he Reval some of Theme to me !
We Have Gaps like Black Holes in the Past Prices But this gaps Can only find by Geometrical and Mathematical Formulas Wich Show Where is The Exact Gap in Price , That guy Turn 100 dollar to 1 million dollar in less than a Year to Prove this to Everyone ,None of he's Trade werent Negative and All Hit TP !
Tp Were The Place that We have Gap in Price ,And Thats So Funny to me Some People Say Price is Random !
Maybe Price have Random Character but When We have Gap Price First Must Go Back To Gap And Then Move to Other Directions Even IF Tsunami Hit Even If
We Have Nuclear Explosion In A Country! First Price must Go To Nearest Gap And Then Go To Any Other Direction .
AmirShahiN
You Must Love CandleSticks
  • #695
  • Aug 13, 2013 4:46am Aug 13, 2013 4:46am
Quoting AmirShahiN
Hi Vlady i saw at your statments that you talk about Gap in Price ! This is The Exact Thing That If everyone Know it Correctly can Predict Future Price 100% cause Future Price must back To Past Gaps before any Important move in the Market, That Was around 2007-2008 That i saw one Guy Can Predict the Market 100% ! but how ?
Hi Amir,

I certainly can't say that I can predict the market, or even know when these "gaps" will take place.

But years ago... back in 1997, I met a computer programmer trader and he also told me that everything you needed was in price. Back then I never understood it but over the years I've learned that there is a form of mathematical symmetry in the movements of price.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #696
  • Aug 13, 2013 4:54am Aug 13, 2013 4:54am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} That's a "black hole" price range: 1.3310 to 1.3312, price will come back here and clear it with force.
spot on my friend!
I want more brain power!
  • #697
  • Aug 13, 2013 4:54am Aug 13, 2013 4:54am
Compare the first 15M posted 1 hour ago to the next one.

You'll see that the swing tops occurred... but the close was not outside BB.
This is an unresolved price. It moved away pretty quickly. Direction away from it wasn't important.... but rather that it would return with a vengeance.

Attila in the EurUsd forum often says that big players want to create the widest range as possible before they go towards their intended direction.
Kind of like stretching a rubber band away from direction, to deliver the force forwards.

So the move downards on the 15M wasn't a bear move. It's an actual bull move to get a better Long Price (ie. cheaper).
The 1H chart says we're due a top... the BBs are narrowing so it could be breached fairly soonish. I will watch this for clues as to when to close my longs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-15M.PNG Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-15M2.PNG Size: 45 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #698
  • Aug 13, 2013 4:55am Aug 13, 2013 4:55am
You Know Vlady When That Guy Say we Have Gap in Price and Future Prices must go back to Past Gaps and This is The Way we Can Predict 100% Future market
We say that he is a lier and it is impossible , But He done it Live For a Lot of People he Start With 100 Dollar With no Sl and Only Enter The Trade When we have Gap in Market and We have Coditions For Current Price to Go back to That Gaps , What i and Other People Saw About Gaps Was Unbelivable .
SomeTimes That Guy Had Position Size like 300 lot ! i Think Anyone Dont See Such a Performance like That till now and never will see Until someone Else can Discover these Gaps.
That was Just Amazing Turning 100 dollar to 1 million Dollars in Few Month !
You Must Love CandleSticks
  • #699
  • Aug 13, 2013 8:10am Aug 13, 2013 8:10am
ZZBot on H4, H1, M30, M15, and dissimilarity mode. Zghall we aim for ZZTop going long?

Zone Cleaed, where price will be after zone is born? I still see it upwards so we can clear upper zone and then return here. Thoughts?
Time matters most
  • #700
  • Aug 13, 2013 8:54am Aug 13, 2013 8:54am
Quoting blackqn
ZZBot on H4, H1, M30, M15, and dissimilarity mode. Zghall we aim for ZZTop going long? Zone Cleaed, where price will be after zone is born? I still see it upwards so we can clear upper zone and then return here. Thoughts?
Hi, my views for discussion.

Yes we are due a ZZT

but the move in 15m is not right yet. stoch is not yet aligned, the unborn zone is not a "virgin" and the zone below is very hot because its been around for 11 days.

I don't know how to trade this to be honest but longs should be taken carefully I believe. Just because all ZZB form does not mean a bottom. Learnt that the hard way
I want more brain power!
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