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  • #661
  • Aug 10, 2013 6:18pm Aug 10, 2013 6:18pm
Quoting mobthehop
vlady, I have made some very minor adjustments to the previously posted version of Stoch with BB, all parameters are now externals and the Stoch settings are corrected as well (the were hard coded as x,3,1 rather than x,1,1) I am still struggling with the "Daily Projection" - if today's Open > Close (ie red candle), then tomorrow should be another down day if tomorrow's open is situated how or where? Lower than today's open? Cheers / Mop {file}
Thanks dude,

I've given it a go and it gives a better picture... more clarity.
just a note about this. I set mine to the 75,1,1 setting because it's clearer for me to see. if I use 300,1,1 it is just too small to see if the wave is in or out of the BB.

The Daily Projection is self contained in the one Day. I don't look at todays UP or DOWN result to predict tomorrow. I use thee next ZZ Sequence. For example, the 15M has a ZZB and ended in the middle of nowhere. Next week, a ZZT has to form... unless a lower ZZB forms. If I can see that the Bollinger Band can give me a good looking Close Outside of BB on the Price and the Stoch, I give more weighting to that, than a lingering DS Zone that it might try and reach.

Monday is hard. At the moment, I would look at all timeframes and I would give more weighting to the ZZ sequence of 4H and 1H. The 4H has reached BBMid... look at recent trend, its remained on top half... so I am going for that to remain and possibly form a higher ZZT. The 1H is expecting a ZZT...but look at how far away the BB border is... it has to travel higher. It has to. So I would initially mark Sun and Monday to be UP days, with a lower ZZB to form on the 15M.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #662
  • Aug 10, 2013 8:49pm Aug 10, 2013 8:49pm
vlady,

1. I am using Stoch 75,1,1 myself, just set it to 300 in the indicator as I thought most here trade M15 with period 300 Stochs...

2. Daily Forecast - I was referring to your posts #608 and #623 - would you mind to share your excel table (you can PM me if you prefer) as I really like to explore this further (without reinventing the wheel that is...)

Thanks in advance / Mop
  • #663
  • Aug 11, 2013 5:42pm Aug 11, 2013 5:42pm
Closed small shorts +12 from Friday.
Daily Projection is UP for Asian and London. could be Down for NYC.. depends on how far she climbs.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #664
  • Aug 11, 2013 5:45pm Aug 11, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting mobthehop
vlady, 1. I am using Stoch 75,1,1 myself, just set it to 300 in the indicator as I thought most here trade M15 with period 300 Stochs... 2. Daily Forecast - I was referring to your posts #608 and #623 - would you mind to share your excel table (you can PM me if you prefer) as I really like to explore this further (without reinventing the wheel that is...) Thanks in advance / Mop
I'll try and dig this out tomorrow. Just got back from a trip so nothing right now... Chill-axing in bed.
ive mentioned before, the StochDiff uses 300,1,1 and 24 for all timeframes. The Stoch Bb can be whatever you want as long as its legible. I use 75,1,1
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #665
  • Aug 12, 2013 3:53am Aug 12, 2013 3:53am
Quoting vlady1974
Just had a thought on Daily Prediction: It needs to stop being a Nostradamus static type prediction and be more dynamic. At Daily Open (European Midnight or 10pm BST London), we can make the initial projection. This then gets a review at London Open (8am) +1H. This can then account for Asia which I have always used as a barometer for the day's action - well before I discovered Similarity/Dissimilarity.
So last night I predicted UP.
At London Open, the market moved to clear a broker's price gap and then headed south. This to me is a clear indication that we're going downhill.
I think this is a better way to make a directional "prediction" - not based on "DAY" but based on SESSION.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #666
  • Aug 12, 2013 4:06am Aug 12, 2013 4:06am
1st question: different broker starts a new day at different hours. do you think that in fact the beginning hours of Aus/Japan are significant instead of a certain broker's 1st hour?

I don't have a sophisticated setup for this Demo account. So everything is just a proxy for the idea.... Broker's 1st Hour is just that, a proxy. I tend to agree more with your statement of ASIA Open being significant. From my time perspective, Asia begins at 10PM British Summer Time which is 12am on my broker platform... which prints a vertical day line under the 1st Hour bar. That's good enough for me at the moment.

2nd question: Are below the only 5 rules you used to predict next day's up/down, or you incorporate any additional new considerations?

If PRICE is above 300EMA, the default daily direction will always be UP. Other things to look for to support an UP projection

  1. PRICE is also traveling the upper half of the bollinger band
  2. PRICE closes the day near a ZZBottom and the next major swing into the new day has to be a TOP.
  3. STOCHBB is above the 50 Line
  4. Stoch is also travelling the upper half of the bollinger band​

It is inevitable that I add other considerations. All traders must do this. If it's too mechanical.... you will consider the method "too flawed" and look to adjust too much. You may see from my previous post that I am only making a prediction. I no longer trade the prediction (although I did in the first week of doing this). I now consider it more of a Preparation step.​

My latest thinking is if I "prepare" by being biased LONG...... ie. predict UP.... and then something proves me wrong by the next session within the DAY, then I a have the basis for a trading plan. Right? I mean in practical terms, I'm asleep during ASIAN when I already made a prediction. I wake up and only 3 things will eventuate : I was right... therefore trade in that direction.... or I'm wrong and I don't trade in that direction.... or I'm unsure, therefore I don't trade.

3rd question: for the PRICE closes the day near a ZZBottom and the next major swing into the new day has to be a TOP; both ZZbottom and TOP should happen before tommorrow (within today)? or only the TOP should happen in the beginning of tomorrow?

This is the HARDEST PART and creates the flaw. The method cannot predict time of swings. Impossible. In what you're saying, it's happened where Asia creates a ZZB then shoots to create a ZZT in early London, then Down into close of NYC. Sometimes, it keeps going lower until all you get is a ZZB in the day... and the rise creates the ZZT the 2nd day. Which is why the ZZMethod is powerful... but the daily prediction attempts to put a time sequence on it.


your test results are simply astounding and incredible. it is an "EDGE" that every trader dreams for. i'll attach an EA that can amplify your deadly accurate daily prediction into ridiculous profit.

Bear in mind this is not a "proven" method. I've seen systems/methods like this come and go and you must always remember that markets are living things. They learn and evolve. We have computer algorithms now. Nothing is constant.

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #667
  • Edited 6:14am Aug 12, 2013 5:54am | Edited 6:14am
Hi,

There is a zone 1.3265-1.3275 moreless, Do you think she is going to clear it and then go for new zone around 1.34? Similar, a bit thiner zone is on M15 there.

It somehow corresponds with H4 heading to the lower BB band thus aiming for ZZBot there. does it make sense?

EDIT: other possibility, but to my feeling less probable is to clear that zone and head lower to zone at 1.31x, why not likely? there ispossible channel to be broken in order to make this scenario turned into reality.

Any thoughts?
Time matters most
  • #668
  • Aug 12, 2013 6:26am Aug 12, 2013 6:26am
Quoting blackqn
Hi, There is a zone 1.3265-1.3275 moreless, Do you think she is going to clear it and then go for new zone around 1.34? Similar, a bit thiner zone is on M15 there. It somehow corresponds with H4 heading to the lower BB band thus aiming for ZZBot there. does it make sense? EDIT: other possibility, but to my feeling less probable is to clear that zone and head lower to zone at 1.31x, why not likely? there ispossible channel to be broken in order to make this scenario turned into reality. Any thoughts?
It's really difficult to say. I got into some bad trades this morning based on that Zone on the 15M that got cleared. I thought it was going to provide support.
It's an issue we've talked about before - when will it display particular behaviours? Inconclusive.

The 4H shows how powerful breaking the BBMid is. Once this was done, the 1H and all lower, just crashed down. But the 4H, is still above the 300EMA, so the bearish sentiment is probably more correctional rather than Change In Trend. As it approaches the border, we should watch - probably not trade if you're conservative. EDIT: Yes, based on this move it's more likely that the zone could be targeted.

The 1H is probably the one you are referring to. It does look like it's attracting price. The last swing low on the 4H was 1.31894ish... so the zone could well be taken out. I would like price to go the 1H BBMid and I would short from there. Don't know if we'll get that opportunity.
The 5M shows a zone that has acted as support, so I've gone long. I want to exit and short on the 1H BBMid and target that 1H zone to clear. From there I might just remain flat.

EDIT:
Forgot to mention that today, the 1H opened below 1.3337, then shot back to just above it.... which is a clear seller's move. I should have read that better to be fair but I didn't take it. London's opening bars confirmed the move... a little too late to ride it. So that's why I am long (countertrend) aiming for 1H BBMid to short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1H.PNG Size: 72 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #669
  • Aug 12, 2013 7:09am Aug 12, 2013 7:09am
Downwards for ZZB on 4H imho. 4H broke 50 fib and pierced 60sma. Lower BB line at 61.8 now maybe that's where it will paint...1.3270ish

Out for about +28 for now let see if can keep em
I want more brain power!
  • #670
  • Aug 12, 2013 7:38am Aug 12, 2013 7:38am
Assuming that we can wait for H4 leg. Do I recall properly that Ema has to touch BB and stoch be outside of BB? Please lead me there if I mixed-up something.

Edit: Dissim on M15. My view is still that we have to go up afterwards, so we shall be on the top of the box when it is born.

Why?
ZZBots on TFs up to H1, waiting to be formed on H4 yet
Stil over ema300

Could be that good entry point will be when Stochdif shows value close to 0, if coincidenced with these ZZBots...

Any thoughts?
Time matters most
  • #671
  • Aug 12, 2013 7:43am Aug 12, 2013 7:43am
Quoting blackqn
Assuming that we can wait for H4 leg. Do I recall properly that Ema has to touch BB and stoch be outside of BB? Please lead me there if I mixed-up something.
Yes, it's a stronger signal if Price and Stoch are outside BB.
2 exceptions: when Stoch is maxed at 100 and min'd at 0... this could be either outside or inside the BB.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #672
  • Aug 12, 2013 7:58am Aug 12, 2013 7:58am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Yes, it's a stronger signal if Price and Stoch are outside BB. 2 exceptions: when Stoch is maxed at 100 and min'd at 0... this could be either outside or inside the BB.
I think I read something about fake ZZPeaks where price is outside of BB. Do I mix something up?
Time matters most
  • #673
  • Aug 12, 2013 8:03am Aug 12, 2013 8:03am
Quoting blackqn
{quote} I think I read something about fake ZZPeaks where price is outside of BB. Do I mix something up?
LOL... that happens alot. Shit... that happened to me this morning. That also happens when all tfs are in sync.
It's not perfect.

But stick to the original principle: CLOSE Price and Stoch outside of Bollinger Band often signals a change in trend.
The caveat is that you don't know which Signal will confirm the change in trend.
However this is true: 90ish% of turns have Close and Stoch outside of BB. The 10%ish that don't are the ones for the 2 exceptions I mentioned above... when the stoch is at extreme limit.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #674
  • Aug 12, 2013 8:05am Aug 12, 2013 8:05am
Quoting cfdtaleong
Downwards for ZZB on 4H imho. 4H broke 50 fib and pierced 60sma. Lower BB line at 61.8 now maybe that's where it will paint...1.3270ish Out for about +28 for now let see if can keep em
Nice one man... better than me today.

But I may get another chance. 2 longs on... and 15M DS just started right on the ZZB. After the DS ends, the next DS Zone MUST PRODUCE A TOP. This was a rule provided by someone here.... shite, terrible with names, but what he suggested works.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #675
  • Edited 9:35am Aug 12, 2013 8:13am | Edited 9:35am
And on the dayli, template provided by EURUSDD. Could redraw, sure, but ZZ leg formed anyway. Still trying to figure out.

I have problem with posting the graph

EDIT: uploaded at least...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130812eurusd.daily.png Size: 55 KB
Time matters most
  • #676
  • Edited 8:41am Aug 12, 2013 8:15am | Edited 8:41am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Nice one man... better than me today. But I may get another chance. 2 longs on... and 15M DS just started right on the ZZB. After the DS ends, the next DS Zone MUST BE A TOP. This was a rule provided by someone here.... shite, terrible with names, but what he suggested works.
That is an intersting observation! No trades for me for now. Gonna see what happens at that 1.3270ish level.

Edit I'm using the 60 sma for tests instead as it ties in with another system
I want more brain power!
  • #677
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:39am Aug 12, 2013 9:39am
Quoting blackqn
And on the dayli, template provided by EURUSDD. Could redraw, sure, but ZZ leg formed anyway. Still trying to figure out. I have problem with posting the graph EDIT: uploaded at least... {image}
Okay, now I see it.

If you compare the Daily to anything lower than the daily, you'll find that it doesn't behave in the same way or display in the same way.
The turns don't have any price or stoch outside of BB.

I personally don't apply the ZZBB method on the daily as i don't think we've been provided with the right settings to get the right resolution.
4H is the maximum timeframe.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #678
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:45am Aug 12, 2013 9:45am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} That is an intersting observation! No trades for me for now. Gonna see what happens at that 1.3270ish level. Edit I'm using the 60 sma for tests instead as it ties in with another system
The last swing in a closed DS Zone will produce the opposite swing on the next DS zone that has started.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #679
  • Aug 12, 2013 10:58am Aug 12, 2013 10:58am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Okay, now I see it. If you compare the Daily to anything lower than the daily, you'll find that it doesn't behave in the same way or display in the same way. The turns don't have any price or stoch outside of BB. I personally don't apply the ZZBB method on the daily as i don't think we've been provided with the right settings to get the right resolution. 4H is the maximum timeframe.
It was template from early post, #125
I also noticed, that conditions we use are not met there, however it is something interesting to see anyway, see and observe how it develops.
Time matters most
  • #680
  • Aug 12, 2013 11:16am Aug 12, 2013 11:16am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Nice one man... better than me today. But I may get another chance. 2 longs on... and 15M DS just started right on the ZZB. After the DS ends, the next DS Zone MUST PRODUCE A TOP. This was a rule provided by someone here.... shite, terrible with names, but what he suggested works.
Closed my longs +66 pips. That's $1K back after a not-so-good morning -$3K.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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