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  • #824,441
  • Aug 12, 2013 8:59am Aug 12, 2013 8:59am
@Attila still running the short??
  • #824,442
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:00am Aug 12, 2013 9:00am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} it is the rolling year-on-year change of the EUR vs the USD, i.e. up 7% from one year ago. Can show overstretched moves in fx pairs. Below is a v. long term look at it and it struggles to get past 20% y/y, but only 7% now. In one way you could consider as bullish, but momentum seems to be slowing hugely so I see as bearish. {image}
ok i got it. it is the ratio of eurusd today over the value one year ago on the same day.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #824,443
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:04am Aug 12, 2013 9:04am
Price is at 1.3309 which is just a tiny bit over the support on M15 TF. Do you think its gonna start going down?
  • #824,444
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:06am Aug 12, 2013 9:06am
Quoting PIP.Scalper
@Attila still running the short??
both. now taking a break for the dog and then i'll figure out on which one to add. think it's down from here for the rest of the day, or it'll just dick around and do nothing..
  • #824,445
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:06am Aug 12, 2013 9:06am
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} Jeremy where do u see the Euro going near term?
Personally, I got short at 3395 and covered for +100, but am looking to reshort, slightly overvalued near term and looks good for a technical reversal to 1.31

Longer term I still see us heading below 1.27
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR 2.png Size: 138 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.png Size: 136 KB
  • #824,446
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:10am Aug 12, 2013 9:10am
within days the value of gold goes to 1426 and and end of story. It was once XAUUSD.
minisp500 this for days or hours to go play in 1613
good luck.
B
  • #824,447
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:10am Aug 12, 2013 9:10am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Personally, I got short at 3395 and covered for +100, but am looking to reshort, slightly overvalued near term and looks good for a technical reversal to 1.31 Longer term I still see us heading below 1.27 {image} {image}

Agreed
  • #824,448
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:11am Aug 12, 2013 9:11am
Quoting attila
{quote} both. now taking a break for the dog and then i'll figure out on which one to add. think it's down from here for the rest of the day, or it'll just dick around and do nothing..
it's just that the close above 3300 got me confused is it going back to 3260 or continue to 3345
  • #824,449
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:12am Aug 12, 2013 9:12am
or it might be going down but there is not just enough liquidity in the market
  • #824,450
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:12am Aug 12, 2013 9:12am
Quoting JeremyWS
Also, today we saw a bit of a warning form the options markets, 1 month 25delta RR's fell a lot and this is seen as pretty damn bearish. {image}
i doubt options have long term effect on FX. options are a tiny fraction of the FX market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forex volume.png Size: 53 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #824,451
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:17am Aug 12, 2013 9:17am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} i doubt options have long term effect on FX. options are a tiny fraction of the FX market. {image}
they do, its not the volume - its a sentiment indicator, it means that traders are paying a premium (and an even greater one today) to protect against sudden sell-offs in the EURUSD, typically RR's and CCY will correlate and they do somewhat but its the shifts that should be concerning, take a look at the vol surface and its a more visual representation against a moment in time (not rolling like previous chart)

Significant reverse skew over long term but still there in short term.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vol surface.png Size: 213 KB
  • #824,452
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:26am Aug 12, 2013 9:26am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} they do, its not the volume - its a sentiment indicator, it means that traders are paying a premium (and an even greater one today) to protect against sudden sell-offs in the EURUSD, typically RR's and CCY will correlate and they do somewhat but its the shifts that should be concerning, take a look at the vol surface and its a more visual representation against a moment in time (not rolling like previous chart) Significant reverse skew over long term but still there in short term. {image}

Whow. Where do you find all these images?
Per aspera ad astra
  • #824,453
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:27am Aug 12, 2013 9:27am
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} Whow. Where do you find all these images?
from my trading platform
  • #824,454
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:33am Aug 12, 2013 9:33am
Quoting PIP.Scalper
{quote} it's just that the close above 3300 got me confused is it going back to 3260 or continue to 3345
of course it did.. ny wanted their own high.. (like they didn't snore enough over the weekend)
  • #824,455
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:37am Aug 12, 2013 9:37am
Quoting attila
{quote} of course it did.. ny wanted their own high.. (like they didn't snore enough over the weekend)
  • #824,456
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:37am Aug 12, 2013 9:37am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} from my trading platform

You seem to be a Big Brother. I have a stupid MT4. Congratulations.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #824,457
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:38am Aug 12, 2013 9:38am
Some shorts around 1.33. -8pips right now.
EU seems will break through the 1.34 roof if according the forecast
Together We Stand !
  • #824,458
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:40am Aug 12, 2013 9:40am
AUD may be offering up a good spot to pick up longs again soon
  • #824,459
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:45am Aug 12, 2013 9:45am
looks long but i'm not buying it.
  • #824,460
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:49am Aug 12, 2013 9:49am
Quoting Pharm0r
AUD may be offering up a good spot to pick up longs again soon
Very bad idea for right now.

Quoting attila
looks long but i'm not buying it.
I'm not either. Let's see what this flip zone does.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m5-oanda-corporation.png Size: 42 KB
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