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Sonic R. System

  • #56,001
  • Aug 11, 2013 2:05am Aug 11, 2013 2:05am
USDCAD, MMs Bull
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  • #56,002
  • Aug 11, 2013 2:16am Aug 11, 2013 2:16am
I dusted my roots "SP500" with satisfaction analysis in November 2012

http://wp.me/p3N6R9-lo

Good w.e.
500euroalgiorno.wordpress com
  • #56,003
  • Edited 9:37am Aug 11, 2013 6:21am | Edited 9:37am
Quoting futurespeter
So many great postings, thank you all for that and supporting the positive energy. I like the low liquidity bars, these are the big bars which indicates that the MM's are active buying or selling. Most of the time these low liquidity bars (=gaps) will be closed, now we have two open gaps in EURUSD H4 (yello marked) and three open gaps in GBPUSD H4 (yellow marked) to be filled ... {image} {image} Two good videos regarding these liquidity gaps: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8Qf0BwKbUs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGRiS-vFkhI...
Qualify Classic Sonic R. System Setups with PVSRA

futurespeter,

I concur. We can never know when the MMs will reverse for their run for profits. I am hopeful, however, that we can lock onto some clues that the MMs are actually starting to shift. We cannot predict it. But maybe we can gather reliable clues that the process is indeed in process.

For me, what with Tymedu, qFish, and others starting to examine this issue, I think I will start with the Sonic R. PA wave. Whether on M15, or even M30 or H1 if need be, to see if the PA wave is not only a good PA wave as we would normally do, but if PVSRA shows the notable volumes are at the right apexes of the wave and at the right SR areas. In other words, using a short situation for example, look for a decent PA wave where PVSRA shows the notable volumes at the start of leg#1 down, and/or at the lower start of leg#3 down, and where one or both of these notable volume areas are where they should be if the MMs are bears, namely above key SR.

I don't mind if this brings us full circle back to the Classic Sonic R. System setup. In fact, that is where I hope it does lead, but the circuit having been for the purpose of discovering PVSRA, and then learning how to best apply the truth about the MMs that it reveals, in essence bringing the use of volume and S&R into better focus, into better application to the Classic setup. I don't know how this will end up, but it would be nice to be able to simply look for the Classic setup and then apply PVSRA to the apexes of the PA wave to further qualilfy it as an excellent setup, or something less. Then, if an excellent setup is entered, and the MMs still whip the price around, we can be practically absolutely assured that adding Scouts will turn out to make the trade even more profitable, and in less time than the way I have been position building and with far, far less draw down. Attached is an example, GJ M15 from Friday. See that PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears as they pushed the price up thru the upper half SR. Furthermore, most all of the PA leading up to the Classic setup breakout was happening above the whole SR.

I am sure this would be greatly pleasing to Master Sonicdeejay, who has been tremedously patient thru this entire PVSRA developement while Classic trades looked to be taking a back seat to Scout building trades. As I said, I don't know how this will end, but we have other analytical, bulldog minds working on this in other areas too, so surely something good will eventually be exposed.

-tah
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  • #56,004
  • Aug 11, 2013 6:24am Aug 11, 2013 6:24am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} mykaelboy, Thank you for posting an update on how things are progressing for your and your wife. Looking at the ledger and seeing that you are trading with 50 cent pips instead of 10 cent pips (recommended start for $1,000 and lower initial account balances) my thought is that while that might seem reasonable considering the conditions under which we start with 10 cent pips, it would not hurt you to back off and use 20 cent pips for a while. Yes, profits will come in more gradually, but draw downs will be come less of a concern and more...
Thank you TAH for the advice,

That is actually what i am planning to do, reduce my entry seeds and also refine my entry points. Its because my DD goes up to 55% which is a bit concerning.

I believe that this system is really working and doing away with stop loss is one thing that also reduce the my losses. Basing on my experience, my losses was always caused by the stop loss that even when i placed it 100 pips above/below my entry it is always hit and then the bias reverses.

Refining the entries:
Basing on Qfish chart analysis , if we draw a trend lines on the higher T/F say daily chart we will have a picture of how the PA ranges on a channel, bearing these in mind we will have our basis when we are going to start planting our seeds and maybe we can minimize our draw downs. I don't know if this will help but this is what i am planning to work on.
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  • #56,005
  • Edited 9:37am Aug 11, 2013 6:26am | Edited 9:37am
*** This is a thought for the construction of positions with help of the channels and of the tendency **

I try with a drawing to explain how best to deal with the construction of a building.
I have built an algorithm that measures the average duration of the trends and want to make a projection into the future of this.
when I crossed the line with a mean duration of a trend contained in a tendency to turn in the direction of my future trade beginning accumulation.

Now perfected this thought for a moment of patience.

Blue Channel = higher dimension
Red channel = your dimension and in the right side the Future (this is my algorithm)
Red dot = where you build short position in agrement PVRSA
Blue dot = close all position
Green line upright = is average limit time
Blu line upright = is average limit time -30%
Tp = target
EP = is the point where the trend is broken


This is about the operation of EA, the only problem the next size up (blue channel) is oriented upwards, then output must be much earlier. (Counter trend)
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500euroalgiorno.wordpress com
  • #56,006
  • Aug 11, 2013 6:59am Aug 11, 2013 6:59am
Quoting meirk
{quote} qfish according to your idea ' look at daily time frame and build trend lines I think combination of PVRSA and braking trend lines in daily time frame can define better when the MM run for profit if you go to EURUSD chart you will see it' I already had two fake break trend (in red horizontal) lines but it is less damage for me breaking of trend line is at the end of the day i.e. close below trend line if you go to back in EURUSD cases and do some backtest you will see it even better. i think it worth a chance to be honest i didnt try it...
Hi meirk,

Interesting. How do you know how to draw the fanning trendline? For instance, the previous uptrend doesn't give similar trendlines.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #56,007
  • Aug 11, 2013 7:24am Aug 11, 2013 7:24am
jackywang5, Thank You.

I would like to take this opportunity to remind all Sonicers that we owe jackywang5 our gratitude for his work compiling the early posts on PVSRA. That was a lot of work selflessly dedicated to help all those Sonicers that came afterwards who wanted to delve into PVSRA.

Again, thank you jackywang5 for a very meaningful contribution very well done.

Those new to PVSRA can find the PDF jackywang5 created thru it's link in post #1.

-tah
  • #56,008
  • Aug 11, 2013 7:43am Aug 11, 2013 7:43am
Quoting Encorep202
{quote} I have read many, many threads, but in the end all have proven cheating. Cheating to sell their products on their sites or have turned into different things from the original. I read Sonic for a long time without ever intervene in respect of those who are here for over time and out of respect for their time. I was very impressed by the last post Tha - qFisf - Tymedu and Mykaelboy. I felt a sincere feeling of no interest for ulterior purposes. This is wonderful, this is wonderful, this is wonderful, this is wonderful I am sure we will find...
Hi Antonio,

Thank you for mentioning me, but like you i am just a newbie here who believe in the people who are contributing in these thread has a sincere purpose of helping and sharing their time and efforts for free and without malice.

I was just a silent follower of these thread, but i could not contend anymore to be silent due to the negative attacks that was going on by those people who are trying to discredit the good people here who are trying to help us. I learned a lot from these thread that it open my mind to a new way of trading, what i learned in here i can never get it from any books or seminars and above FREE. So whatever support they need i am open and willing to give.
I hope you too will ride on the bus.

Michael
  • #56,009
  • Aug 11, 2013 8:22am Aug 11, 2013 8:22am
Quoting traderathome
jackywang5, Thank You. I would like to take this opportunity to remind all Sonicers that we owe jackywang5 our gratitude for his work compiling the early posts on PVSRA. That was a lot of work selflessly dedicated to help all those Sonicers that came afterwards who wanted to delve into PVSRA. Again, thank you jackywang5 for a very meaningful contribution very well done. Those new to PVSRA can find the PDF jackywang5 created thru it's link in post #1. -tah
Yes, thank you jackywang5! With over 50,000 posts, I know how finding the key ones is like searching a needle in the haystack. Your efforts have made a significant contribution.

-qFish
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #56,010
  • Aug 11, 2013 8:36am Aug 11, 2013 8:36am
Quoting mykaelboy
{quote} Hi Antonio, Thank you for mentioning me, but like you i am just a newbie here who believe in the people who are contributing in these thread has a sincere purpose of helping and sharing their time and efforts for free and without malice. I was just a silent follower of these thread, but i could not contend anymore to be silent due to the negative attacks that was going on by those people who are trying to discredit the good people here who are trying to help us. I learned a lot from these thread that it open my mind to a new way of trading,...
Where they are good people?
Which manifests the human kindness?
Today is a world of vampires, devils ....
it is our duty to protect these rare places
My sentiments exactly just like you

sincerely
Antonio
  • #56,011
  • Aug 11, 2013 9:42am Aug 11, 2013 9:42am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} futurespeter, I concur. We can never know when the MMs will reverse for their run for profits. I am hopeful, however, that we can lock onto some clues that the MMs are actually starting to shift. We cannot predict it. But maybe we can gather reliable clues that the process is indeed in process. For me, what with Tymedu, qFish, and others starting to examine this issue, I think I will start with the Sonic R. PA wave. Whether on M15, or even M30 or H1 if need be, to see if the PA wave is not only a good PA wave as we would normally do, but...
Tah,

You make a great point. Just as we don't know when the MMs are begining to take profit, for the same reason, we don't know when reversal will happen. And we can only find clues to gauge our position:

1. PVSRA will tell us if they are either BEARS or BULLS building or running or both.
2. They are more than likely running if reversal just happened (noticeable on higher TFs)
3. They are building if the previous run is weakening and we see high areas of consolidation (accumulation)
4. Naturally, the dragon will begin to flatline and confused about which direction to go. In which classic entries will begin to show themselves in the opposite direction.
5. Note the patterns in the higher TFs to know what the MMs are planning (wedge, SR pivots, etc). By this we can note our current location and be aware of risky zones (for instance, the end point of a wedge is a very risky zone and requires much much analysis to determine what MOST have the MMs been collecting)
6.... and more: Other clues we can come up with and experiment

So combining these clues, we make the best informative decision. We may fail, but it's ok, why? Because our first and second scouts are only putting our foot in the water to gauge the temperature. They are the sacrifice for the greater good. They are our brave soldiers. And they won't die in vane b/c when we do jump aboard, it will far eclipse our losses. For a 1k account, if the first two scouts are both 0.01 lots each, and we enter let's say on the first 30 minute classic entry against the previous trend. Let us define our max DD to be 100 pips (just like our master used). Then our 1 scout will suffer a $10 loss. That's 1% of our account. Now let's say we have the second scouts spaced 25 pips after the first. Now, the first scout will suffer the same 100 pips, while the other 75 pips loss. So $17.5 or 1.75% of our account. Tell me, is this loss reasonable?

So the first entry is classic. Then we can space our scouts as prices RUNs with our position until we meet our second classic entry. In which case, our 100 pips exit can move (note this is mental SL as not to be sitting ducks, sometimes we can take more or less depending on what we see in the PA). So to be nimble enough to catch those fast run for profits or spikes, we can use pending orders (For instance, enter buy positions at higher prices spaced 25 pips apart assuming the trend is BULL).

The more we put our foot in the water and lose these tiny entries, the higher the probability that we will finally find it.

Here are some advantages/disadvantages:

Advantages:
1. Early profit realization with low DD/loss
2. Because we have profit early, when price reverses, our DD will be a PART of our profits. In the case price reverses, we can immediately switch direction to begin take profit in the opposite direction. This means, for one cycle, we make profits both on the uptrend and down trend, as oppose to waiting for one of the trend to reverse for us to take profit.
3. Depending on our own level of TP, we all can decide to take winnings early on and re-enter with smaller number of scouts. Although this makes us less profit in the long run as we no longer have leverage from previous scouts. But hey, this is trading psychology and many of us will have the risk aversion that comes with being in high profits. It's easier for traders to hold on to a losing trade than let the profits run. Let's try to let these profits run for once :-). Just think how many more scouts we'll have to find the next coming reversals.
4. Because we will be in profit, the equity we build gives us more margin and more bullets. For every 300 pips a scout moves, it would have made enough margin for another bullet (margin cost of $30 for a pair). With 5 scouts in play, they only have to move 60 pips in our direction before the next scout we add will be purely from our profit cost. Now, how does it feel to add more scouts and not even touch your original margin? F'kin awesome right.

Disadvantages:
1. Because early on, we don't have much momentum, we have high uncertainty. This hurts us b/c we cannot be sure to load more scouts early on (which is advantageous if we want the best average price). So this is a tradeoff. In addition we don't want to heavily load scouts late game b/c they will not make much per scout and have risk of bigger DD in the case price does reverses. So it seems to me that the best method is a constant spacing.
2. We will have a lot of misses as we try to locate that point of reversal. But remember, the most profitable of all systems does not mean the best win ratio. In this system, we are leveraging on a high reward to risk ratio. So our winnings will far eclipse our losses. With a scout that loses 100 pips each try, I doubt we will lose many scouts before reversal.

I really can't wait til my EU and AU is closed. This will be very exciting. (Although taking profit from my EU and AU will be exciting too!)

And remember, that first sonic classic entry is at the smallest lot size. It is putting your foot into the water. A VERY small risk. This practices our patience and ability to wait for the right time to BUILD. So Tah, using classic as re-entry points is an excellent idea!

-qFish
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #56,012
  • Aug 11, 2013 9:53am Aug 11, 2013 9:53am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Qualify Classic Sonic R. System Setups.... it would be nice to be able to simply look for the Classic setup and then apply PVSRA to the apexes of the PA wave to further qualilfy it as an excellent setup, or something less. Then, if an excellent setup is entered, and the MMs still whip the price around, we can be practically absolutely assured that adding Scouts will turn out to make the trade even more profitable, and in less time than the way I have been position building and with far, far less draw down. Attached is an example, GJ M15 from Friday. See that PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears as they pushed the price up thru the upper half SR. Furthermore, most all of the PA leading up to the Classic setup breakout was happening above the whole SR.{image}
Qualify Classic Setups with PVSRA

Here is another example of where I am heading with PVSRA.
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  • #56,013
  • Aug 11, 2013 10:32am Aug 11, 2013 10:32am
Quoting Apollo14
*** This is a thought for the construction of positions with help of the channels and of the tendency ** I try with a drawing to explain how best to deal with the construction of a building. I have built an algorithm that measures the average duration of the trends and want to make a projection into the future of this. when I crossed the line with a mean duration of a trend contained in a tendency to turn in the direction of my future trade beginning accumulation. Now perfected this thought for a moment of patience. Blue Channel = higher dimension...
Hi Apollo14,

Sorry, I can't quite digest everything in your post or website (I speak english only :-( ). But your positioning appears to be very good. You mention average duration for trends so this is strictly a time calculation, so trend is primarily time dependent on different time frames? I can see how a statistical analysis would be beneficial.

If anyone has read Kathy Lien's "Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market," she discusses a statistical analysis of trend duration (thos without any retrace!). And for most trends, there is a specific number of days that they will last before reversal. It's a great book. I highly recommend it for beginners.

Here is a snippet from her book (reference as to give her credit for her work):
Attached Image


So how does this help us? Well, we can see as the number of days increase for major trends, the number of trends decreases greatly. This means that we have extremely high probability beyond 7 days of trend length (this is statistics compiled over 10 years). Now think... is this a coincidence? Why has PVSRA been working on a weekly basis! Amazing. Really. And no trends have lasted more than 10 days.

And this is the power of statistics. And I believe Apollo may be using something similar. I think it can be even more powerful as we approach it from a worst case scenario (as oppose to average duration of trend). So we can identify the length of our current trend for all pairs and find the ones that have trended the longest. This is our diamond trade.

-qFish
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #56,014
  • Aug 11, 2013 10:35am Aug 11, 2013 10:35am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Ever wonder why the NFA lapdogs of the super-rich banks and their lackey market makers lobbied (and got passed due to the Republican lapdogs of the super-rich) laws in the USA preventing retailers from hedging
...
-tah
Tah (or anyone else), I have this question for a long time about not allowing hedging in USA. Mathmatically isnt hedging in the same account just as same as closing the position. So if i am long 1 lot eur and then have 2nd trade of short 1 lot eur, it is just same as selling my 1 lot long. So even if technically it is not allowed (to have both long and short position in the same account), how does that really affect trader since they can just close out the position.

Only thing it will have impact on is % winning trades (i.e. by hedging you can hold onto losses and close them only when they are in +). However from economic point of view, there should be no impact.

am i missing something simple here.

thanks for the help.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #56,015
  • Aug 11, 2013 10:39am Aug 11, 2013 10:39am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Qualify Classic Setups with PVSRA Here is another example of where I am heading with PVSRA. {image}
That is a perfect example Tah. If we were all closed on EU, this would be a good start.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #56,016
  • Aug 11, 2013 11:33am Aug 11, 2013 11:33am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Banks Are Evil? They might not work in unison, but for the biggest banks of all, there is interlocking directorships: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post6746525 As for Fiat Money (legal tender) not being debt, the banks can create legal tender by issuing debt. As soon as they issue debt, they have created a "debt reconciliation account" for the transaction, money owed the bank, which in essence is a bank asset, which in essence they can issue more debt against! It is a snowball from hell, driven by no more...
Nice comment. A lot of people in trading believe, that it is "nice and free" aka "happy sunshine". But banks are evils and manipulators. They are making laws thru politics. Big asshole "bank" has always good agreement with other big asshole "super-rich". That is our world of today. We need to be in their side of manipulation with our trades. That is how I see it.
  • #56,017
  • Aug 11, 2013 11:35am Aug 11, 2013 11:35am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Qualify Classic Setups with PVSRA Here is another example of where I am heading with PVSRA. {image}
Price already told the story

H.
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"The future is already written in the past"
  • #56,018
  • Aug 11, 2013 11:59am Aug 11, 2013 11:59am
MM's position is they are liquidity providers. They provide the other side of the trade when there are no others to take the opposite side. But it seems they are liquidity absorbers. They move a market until there are no others to take the other side then they seek out the SL to create more liquidity. They just happen to be holding the profit side of the trades that are stopped out.

There is no way to determine how far the market will move as we do not know how much money must be moved into a short position or a long position. But once this task has been completed they will move the market in their favor. They use many wash trades to induce trading activity.

What brokers hate are traders that trade small with no SL. They like traders to use the SL with high leverage as this makes their jobs easy to make you close for a loss. If you trade at 10 times leverage and the market moves 100pips against you will be forced to close with a margin call.

As has been stated many times here over and over use small entries relative to your account size. Markets usually return to test key inflection points over a six week period.

It is easy to criticize but offer no solutions. If your concerns are because you have a solution then by all means post your ideas. If you are one of those people that are only happy for others failures and never happy for their successes then please find another thread. I have to constantly block posters that have no insightful information.

There are so many people that post their views with graphical information based on your system that is great even if they do not agree with a particular trade they explain why and they also post many live trades. these posts are great for all to learn.

Sonic please review the posters that continue to post with no insightful posts but are just there posting to post useless information and flame all traders weather classic or PVSRA. If there is anything you can do would be great.
  • #56,019
  • Aug 11, 2013 12:51pm Aug 11, 2013 12:51pm
First of all, thank you all. TAH, Timedy, Futuresperter are doing that for the first time in a year, my experience in forex is positive.
As I have very little money left after several failed strategies, my steps are extremely cautious. When planting TAH is 20 scouts, I sow only 2. Still, my account has gone from 500 to 780 in two months. It's little, but you think that initially I entered 3000. Obviously, before knowing this thread, I was on the losing side of almost all operations. Always the blessed stop loss. It seemed that someone (the devil) knew the exact point where they were to jump my stop loss, and touched my stop loss price, then correct and go in the direction I would have benefited. Thanks for explaining the operation of the market, in this thread, and MM, which opened my eyes, matrix style.
Thank you.

A small contribution, I hope not to be wrong with the analysis. USD / CHF: both 15M chart, as 1H, and 4H, the MM seem to repeatedly push the price down. On Friday, we can see how the price comes up naturally, but is repeatedly pushed down. I think they are bulls, and are about to run for profit. Begin to plant a couple of scouts as the market opens.


I used google translator, I hope you have understood well.
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  • #56,020
  • Aug 11, 2013 1:14pm Aug 11, 2013 1:14pm
Quoting klaudio
First of all, thank you all. TAH, Timedy, Futuresperter are doing that for the first time in a year, my experience in forex is positive. As I have very little money left after several failed strategies, my steps are extremely cautious. When planting TAH is 20 scouts, I sow only 2. Still, my account has gone from 500 to 780 in two months. It's little, but you think that initially I entered 3000. Obviously, before knowing this thread, I was on the losing side of almost all operations. Always the blessed stop loss. It seemed that someone (the devil)...
I would advise not to buy yet. I believe the market won't turn around till Wednesday or Thursday when there is news to move it. USDCHF still looks down and might test weekly S2. Good luck
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