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  • #81
  • Jul 13, 2012 8:05pm Jul 13, 2012 8:05pm
I want to point out something. In Feb, bbacker and I called continued bearishness after the Greek Band-Aid rally wears off.

The chart is interesting and food for thought.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1342228004

Always good to look back and remember. Where do you think the recent optimism will be met with tepid pessimism?



Quoting bbakker
Two months sound about right for the following reason... elections in Greece!

Now the current Greek parliament have voted through the new deal. We still have to wait for the Finns, Dutch and Germans to vote it through too, but I think they will... reluctantly.

Troika are not that stupid and will only give Greece the money as needed and why they will now have a permanent presence in Greece's affairs, but this will all change when elections come up in April and the market will slowly begin to realise this nearer the time as the opinion polls...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fundys - eurusd mid-term 2012 01.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #82
  • Jul 13, 2012 8:50pm Jul 13, 2012 8:50pm
Really interesting. How are you picking your targets for entries? You seem to be really close to something really big.
  • #83
  • Jul 13, 2012 8:53pm Jul 13, 2012 8:53pm
Using market sentiment, picking your entries is up to you. Therefore it's possible to use any trading system that you're comfortable with.

I simply prefer to buy support, sell resistance or wait at what I call Reaction Levels. These are simply a combination of both proactive and reactive analysis of pricing levels. When there is a great enough convergence then that to me is a strong level.


Quoting toafdawg
Really interesting. How are you picking your targets for entries? You seem to be really close to something really big.
  • #84
  • Jul 15, 2012 5:57pm Jul 15, 2012 5:57pm
Continuation gap play. Posting this one just for fun. Analysis coming for Europe session later.

Classic resistance turned support plus Reaction Level.

http://i48.tinypic.com/bfjcd3.gif

Also short USDCHF & USDCAD, in correlated setups.
  • #85
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:30am Jul 16, 2012 12:30am
Saw that same gap and demand level. But it was JPY bank holiday, and a Sunday, so I passed. You've got more ice water in your veins than me!
  • #86
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:09am Jul 16, 2012 1:09am
Outcome: Stopped out for breakeven, price stalled and no liquidity.

Quoting Verb
Continuation gap play. Posting this one just for fun. Analysis coming for Europe session later.

Classic resistance turned support plus Reaction Level.

http://i48.tinypic.com/bfjcd3.gif

Also short USDCHF & USDCAD, in correlated setups.
  • #87
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:09am Jul 16, 2012 1:09am
Lol, I forgot about JPY holiday or else I would not have traded that.

Quoting toafdawg
Saw that same gap and demand level. But it was JPY bank holiday, and a Sunday, so I passed. You've got more ice water in your veins than me!
  • #88
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:13am Jul 16, 2012 1:13am
Mondays can be often hard to predict but I saw this exhaustion bar off a reaction level. Pulled the trigger.

+12 on first position, second position breakeven looking for previous high TP.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...07-16-2012.gif

Be Brave.
  • #89
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:43am Jul 16, 2012 1:43am
Market sentiment: Mildly Bullish
Signal: Buy Support
Pair: EURUSD
Reaction Level: 1.2205

It's Monday, I'll be looking for continuation of bullishness after this retrace. Waiting for equities to get started in the UK before I look for a dip.

Bernanke is talking later this week, I believe the market will price in QE and then sell-off afterwards. We shall see.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...ropeeurusd.gif

Be Brave.
  • #90
  • Jul 18, 2012 2:09am Jul 18, 2012 2:09am
Outcome: price found support at the next reaction level below it at 1.2165 and then bounced up for 100.0+ pips. I was stopped out with a shallow stop, a bit too much velocity took me out.

Quoting Verb
Market sentiment: Mildly Bullish
Signal: Buy Support
Pair: EURUSD
Reaction Level: 1.2205

It's Monday, I'll be looking for continuation of bullishness after this retrace. Waiting for equities to get started in the UK before I look for a dip.

Bernanke is talking later this week, I believe the market will price in QE and then sell-off afterwards. We shall see.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...ropeeurusd.gif

Be Brave.
  • #91
  • Jul 18, 2012 2:28am Jul 18, 2012 2:28am
Market sentiment: Mildly Bullish
Signal: Buy Support
Pair: GBPUSD
Reaction Level: 1.5722, 1.5555, 1.5505, 1.5452

Risk events today are the MPC meeting minutes, unemployment rates, building permits in the US session and of course Bernanke Bernanke Bernanke. I can see London making a move before the US session.

I'll be looking to get long around the 1.5505 area on spike for a bounce. Good news, I'll fade at resistance if that happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 07-18-2012 gbpusd buy support 01.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #92
  • Aug 1, 2012 1:07am Aug 1, 2012 1:07am
Bearish outside bar on XAUUSD (Gold) daily intersecting with 200 MA. Should be headed south for a bit to 1600 previous lows and high. The play would be to short halfway through the retrace into the bearish outside bar.

http://www.davidtapang.com/wp-conten...1-analysis.png

Sentiment analysis will be back this week. Been busy.
  • #93
  • Aug 6, 2012 3:58am Aug 6, 2012 3:58am
http://www.davidtapang.com/wp-conten...on-Session.jpg

These are the going to be the best levels to fade once reached today.
  • #94
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:18am Apr 8, 2013 3:18am
Some words on fundamentals.

First a definition from Investopedia.
"The qualitative and quantitative information that contributes to the economic well-being and the subsequent financial valuation of a company, security or currency. Analysts and investors analyze these fundamentals to develop an estimate as to whether the underlying asset is considered a worthwhile investment."

Now, why am I even discussing this instead of pure supply and demand trading?

By analyzing fundamentals, we can enhance our ability to trade in the direction of prevailing market sentiment. Trading in sync with the market can give you an edge over traders who ONLY use technical.

When analyzing currency fundamentals here are a few items to look for (this is not my complete list):

  1. Fitch / S&P Credit Ratings
  2. Commitment of Traders Report (COT. Yes this is technical however it cannot be ignored)
  3. Interest Rates
  4. Central Bank Interventions & Monetary Policy


The trick is to balance fundamentals with current risk appetite. Notice I did not include news and economic indicator announcements in the fundamentals list. These items are a measure or indicator of risk appetite.

For example, GBPCAD. Looking at today's interest rate chart (04/08/2013) you can see a representation of the British Pound's performance versus the Australian dollar.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2coonfb.png Size: 50 KB


No doubt you will notice a downward trend for GBP versus AUD but why?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2cwpudg.png Size: 157 KB


Interest Rate analysis reveals that:

  1. Great Britain's interest rate is 0.50% versus Australia's 3.00%, meaning the Australian Dollar is in a fundamentally stronger position than the British Pound
  2. Even though, Australia's Central Bank reduced the interest rate in Dec of 2012, the currency is still much stronger given the delta (the difference between interest rates).
  3. We can derive from this that the British Economy with an interest rate near the zero % area is clearly hurting and using an increase in liquidity to stimulate business whereas Australia's economy is only just now increasing liquidity. Therefore one can assume that in this scenario the Australian dollar would be the one to go long on.


You will also notice rallies or declines that are opposite of the fundamental analysis and these are due to the Risk Events that I mentioned before (interest announcements, trade balance, ppi, etc). When there is a positive reading it's good for the currency, when there is a negative reading it's bad for the currency. Therefore, when you combine fundamentals and risk events you get market sentiment.

Fundamentals + Risk Events = Market Sentiment.

This simple analysis is clear, short the GBPAUD.

But where you ask? At technically important levels. Really, you may use any trading system you like for timing of entries but supply and demand makes it easiest for me

Let's put it all together now using Market Sentiment with Supply & Demand trading. Given the current supply levels, I would be ready to short on bad news at these technical supply levels.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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By combining fundamentals with technicals, you can increase your confidence level in trading.
  • #95
  • Jun 12, 2013 6:06am Jun 12, 2013 6:06am
Hey Verb! I hope things are well with you. Shame this thread doesn't have much activity on it. Maybe we can revive it as I always liked chatting fundamentals with you. Take it easy bro and I hope we speak soon.
  • #96
  • Jun 12, 2013 6:14am Jun 12, 2013 6:14am
Quoting Verb
No doubt you will notice a downward trend for GBP versus AUD but why? {image} Interest Rate analysis reveals that: Great Britain's interest rate is 0.50% versus Australia's 3.00%, meaning the Australian Dollar is in a fundamentally stronger position than the British Pound Even though, Australia's Central Bank reduced the interest rate in Dec of 2012, the currency is still much stronger given the delta (the difference between interest rates). We can derive from this that the British Economy with an interest rate near the zero % area is clearly hurting...
There has been a change of shift recently with the declines in AUD as the RBA have lowered the base rate with possibly more in the pipeline and with signs of a slowdown in China having an effect on their currency. The usually strong correlation between S&P and AUDUSD has turned negative as the S&P continues higher (although a top might be forming now) and the AUDUSD dropped over a 1000 pips. Currently the AUD is in oversold conditions and a bounce looks on the cards with a retrace but I expect the downtrend to continue especially if the RBA cut rates further and China's numbers deteriorate further.
  • #97
  • Edited 3:09pm Jun 12, 2013 6:38am | Edited 3:09pm
Here is my current trade on USDJPY, my TP and an area where I am looking to short the Yen again...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_D1.png Size: 21 KB


My trading philosophy -
I trade mainly of the monthly/weekly/daily timeframes and use h4/h1 for entries, so my trades are few. However, sometimes I am impatient and I might scalp the odd trade for 20 or 30 pips to get it out of my system while waiting for the bigger setups. I do try to avoid it and continue to better my patience.
  • #98
  • Jul 9, 2013 4:10pm Jul 9, 2013 4:10pm
One of the followers. Keep it up Verb
  • #99
  • Aug 9, 2013 10:24am Aug 9, 2013 10:24am
I am also a follower. Wondering if anyone can give their view of CAD today?
  • #100
  • Last Post: Aug 11, 2013 9:24am Aug 11, 2013 9:24am
Quoting pbylina
I am also a follower. Wondering if anyone can give their view of CAD today?
It's strong despite weak data.
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