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Macro-Economic News vs the Euro

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited 6:34am Apr 6, 2012 5:57am | Edited 6:34am
Today the US NFP will be released. We expect over 200K jobs to be added and at least a steady unemployment rate at 8.3%. Hence, the real challenge becomes, what happens in case the above mentions are achieved or even surpassed?

Personally I don't think that this will have any impact. The mood is now officially 'Semi-Bearish' as major players wait for a confirmatory breach of 1.30 level of the EURUSD.

Possible outcomes:
1). If the US jobs market exceed expectations - the USD rallies, Stocks rally and the EUR falls.

2). If the numbers fail to beat estimates, - the USD still rallies since the stocks will have to fall and the EUR falls.


I think the real catch will be the Unemployment rate. An improvement to over 8.2% or a hold at the current 8.3% will cause speculators to be bearish on stocks since this will signal that any possibility of QE3 is officially toast.

Hence I believe only if the jobs number fall short of the estimates, will only the current rally continue in the stocks as investors will be optimistic by hopes of QE3 being revived and hence a possibility of EUR recovery. But enter Spain now - the picture for EUR is bleak as it is.

that is why I believe, should the NFP beat estimates and the Unemployment rate improve or remain steady, the EUR is toast as well as the Stocks.

Am short EURUSD from 1.3060. first TP at 1.2250, second TP at 1.1750.

Any thoughts?
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
It's all about QE3 folks, anything else is just a smoke screen, noise as far as the US markets are concerned. If they don't get it; soon to be confirmed by means of improved Jobs market data and improved/steady Unemployment rate - for sure speculators will unwind sizable positions and markets will correct world-wide.


That is why only poor NFP numbers and an increase in unemployment rate (8.4%), will guarantee rally continuation in stocks as hopes for QE3 will be revived. At such I doubt if smart money will be willing be short anything.


hence, good data from US NFP coupled by the turmoil in Europe, this calls for some months of one-sided solid bearish selling across the board - stocks and the EURO in general.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
Is anyone wondering the real reason as to why this NFP report is being given a rather more serious & cautious approach as opposed the the other passed NFP reports?

Ans: This NFP report is the last confirmation as to whether the US will be getting any QE3 or not. Why the sell-off in the last 3 days? QE was off the table in the FOMC minutes.

A holistic approach to trading in this environment is prudent. 'These people' who want QE3 are big in the US and they have the big guns too. 'They' will get it if they want it - period. The Fed will have to give in.

'These people' will ensure there will be no hopes of any interest rate hikes and extend corrections in the markets beyond the normal 10% forcing companies to freeze any new hirings and the unemployment rate will increase.

At the end, 'they' get the QE3!

They - Goldman sachs, PIMCO boss and several deep pocket fundies.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
EURJPY is acting as a barometer - as usual in times of distress! Traders at the moment clinging on it for direction as far as the EUR is concerned.

PS; Go long at your own peril. Shorting EUR still remains the most viable option given that stocks will open lower across the board after Easter. That means, the USD Index will find new admirers since no one is welcome by SNB to ride the CHF.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
Quoting Popee83
Today the US NFP will be released. We expect over 200K jobs to be added and at least a steady unemployment rate at 8.3%. Hence, the real challenge becomes, what happens in case the above mentions are achieved or even surpassed?

Personally I don't think that this will have any impact. The mood is now officially 'Semi-Bearish' as major players wait for a confirmatory breach of 1.30 level of the EURUSD.

Possible outcomes:
1). If the US jobs market exceed expectations - the USD rallies, Stocks rally and the EUR falls.

2). If the numbers...
Hi,

Personally I don't think the NFP will have much of an effect on the EUR this time round. Any effect will be a short overreaction of the market and I believe that if you want to trade the NFP then you should do it in a very short time-frame (sort of a hit-and-run trade) There are two reasons why I feel the jobs data wont have much of an effect:

- It falls on Easter, a time where most markets will be closed, and so liquidity and hence volatility will be low, spread will be higher too, so we'll see less action from the retail guys.

- The EUR took a hit recently across the board due to a bond sale by Spain that was a dismal failure to say the least,

My two pence worth is that we should keep a sharp eye on the CHF, the SNB might be planning an intervention, or might not, this has provided good fodder for speculators in the past few days, although tread lightly as last years intervention by the SNB resulted in 2000 pip drop and as you know, in such times stops are not guaranteed. Lastly, there is a great thread on the SNB on FF and you should read that if you're interested in trading this pair,

Cheers
Abi
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest - Ben Franklin
Spain has now been taken from under the Microscope and is now being placed above the Magnifying glass .... interesting week ahead!

http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/88388379
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
EURJPY will be the main focus since folks aint really feeling the Dollar at the moment now that QE3's a tad inevitable following poor NFP data. Traders were looking for 105.80 to hold. But following recent developments, this coming week EURJPY may see 99.25. It will be the most liquid pair with hyper movement.

The Asians I believe will take-out 105.80 before even Europe comes in.

EURUSD seems will only possibly do 1.2950 and stall. the drop here will be lethargic. It seems 24th April we will get a clear direction from FOMC with regard to QE3, then some long-term action will comence.

EURJPY will be real cuddy. USDJPY slide willl be colourful too this coming week.

Good Luck.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
Quoting Popee83
EURJPY will be the main focus since folks aint really feeling the Dollar at the moment now that QE3's a tad inevitable following poor NFP data. Traders were looking for 105.80 to hold. But following recent developments, this coming week EURJPY may see 99.25. It will be the most liquid pair with hyper movement.

The Asians I believe will take-out 105.80 before even Europe comes in.

EURUSD seems will only possibly do 1.2950 and stall. the drop here will be lethargic. It seems 24th April we will get a clear direction from FOMC with regard to...
I appreciate the sentiment, the JPY was the best performing currency this past week, especially on Friday when the NFP was out.

However we must be cautious, the new week has a lot in store for the JPY (news wise) the Japanese trade figures are due before Asia opens on Monday, and the weaker Yen means that we might see a trade surplus, Bloomberg expects the figure to be ¥104.3 billion, and a surplus would surely extend the bullish run we've seen so far.

On Wednesday the bank of Japan meet, and I think this will be a major factor too, in February they injected upto ¥10 trillion to stimulate the economy, there are rumours out there that the BoJ would want to weaken the Yen if the trade figures on Monday are poor, so it seems to be a big week ahead for the Yen, the potential to make a few pips here definitely exists.

Cheers
Abi
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest - Ben Franklin
Fresh session lows in EURJPY as the Yen strengthens across the board. The all crucial 105.80 is a tad away. A clean break opens 99.25 for takers here.

This technical break will also Kill EURUSD sending it to 1.27ish area by end month.

Good Luck!
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
A steady, gradual slide in EURUSD to commence.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
Now that we have gotten confirmations: My bets for the end-month to track, forget 1.3000 in EURUSD-it's history, they'll probably want to shake out jittery hitch-hikers.

EURJPY: Entry 105.75 TP 99.25
EURUSD: Holding my Initial 1.3060 entry TP 1.2750


All the best!
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
This pair is behaving like a freak-show. Am tempted to close at BE and load some more EURJPY.

Further more, projected EURUSD is 1.2750 tops by month end, whereas the payoff from EURJPY is projected to 99.25 - that's a 600 pip move. EURUSD we look at a lausy 300 pip move tops.

We get back to 1.3060, I jump-ship and load some more EURJPY. F#&* EURUSD - freakshow!
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
Well, 'they' are saying that GBPJPY has a downside potential for 120.00 spot-on in a month or two. That's if you have got the balls to sit tight amidst the volatility the pair wages.


She flatters with 128.05 at writing. i aint got such balls myself
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
Quoting Popee83
Well, 'they' are saying that GBPJPY has a downside potential for 120.00 spot-on in a month or two. That's if you have got the balls to sit tight amidst the volatility the pair wages.


She flatters with 128.05 at writing. i aint got such balls myself
I think it's a risky bet to go short at the moment, all the EMAs are suggesting a bullish outlook, and we are getting closer to that first fib level, I think it'l be interesting to see how it behaves when it hits that fib level.

Watching this one develop at the moment, sitting tight.
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An investment in knowledge pays the best interest - Ben Franklin
Quoting abi2712
I think it's a risky bet to go short at the moment, all the EMAs are suggesting a bullish outlook, and we are getting closer to that first fib level, I think it'l be interesting to see how it behaves when it hits that fib level.

Watching this one develop at the moment, sitting tight.

It wasn't so bad - the GBPJPY squeeze was a little over 120 pips I suppose, same with EURJPY.

Just sitting tight if your techs show you big swings has never been the easiest thing, but it is the most rewarding. Once it goes wrong and techs show you to exit, you close - period at a lose. Last week, non of the pairs generated 'close' signals on the hourly charts.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Apr 16, 2012 9:33am Apr 16, 2012 9:33am
I bet:

# EURUSD to reach 1.2850
# EURJPY to reach 103.50
# GBPJPY to see 125.50 , at least 126.50 seems guaranteed. Just hate the
squeezes.


Good Luck
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
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