Today the US NFP will be released. We expect over 200K jobs to be added and at least a steady unemployment rate at 8.3%. Hence, the real challenge becomes, what happens in case the above mentions are achieved or even surpassed?
Personally I don't think that this will have any impact. The mood is now officially 'Semi-Bearish' as major players wait for a confirmatory breach of 1.30 level of the EURUSD.
Possible outcomes:
1). If the US jobs market exceed expectations - the USD rallies, Stocks rally and the EUR falls.
2). If the numbers fail to beat estimates, - the USD still rallies since the stocks will have to fall and the EUR falls.
I think the real catch will be the Unemployment rate. An improvement to over 8.2% or a hold at the current 8.3% will cause speculators to be bearish on stocks since this will signal that any possibility of QE3 is officially toast.
Hence I believe only if the jobs number fall short of the estimates, will only the current rally continue in the stocks as investors will be optimistic by hopes of QE3 being revived and hence a possibility of EUR recovery. But enter Spain now - the picture for EUR is bleak as it is.
that is why I believe, should the NFP beat estimates and the Unemployment rate improve or remain steady, the EUR is toast as well as the Stocks.
Am short EURUSD from 1.3060. first TP at 1.2250, second TP at 1.1750.
Any thoughts?
Personally I don't think that this will have any impact. The mood is now officially 'Semi-Bearish' as major players wait for a confirmatory breach of 1.30 level of the EURUSD.
Possible outcomes:
1). If the US jobs market exceed expectations - the USD rallies, Stocks rally and the EUR falls.
2). If the numbers fail to beat estimates, - the USD still rallies since the stocks will have to fall and the EUR falls.
I think the real catch will be the Unemployment rate. An improvement to over 8.2% or a hold at the current 8.3% will cause speculators to be bearish on stocks since this will signal that any possibility of QE3 is officially toast.
Hence I believe only if the jobs number fall short of the estimates, will only the current rally continue in the stocks as investors will be optimistic by hopes of QE3 being revived and hence a possibility of EUR recovery. But enter Spain now - the picture for EUR is bleak as it is.
that is why I believe, should the NFP beat estimates and the Unemployment rate improve or remain steady, the EUR is toast as well as the Stocks.
Am short EURUSD from 1.3060. first TP at 1.2250, second TP at 1.1750.
Any thoughts?
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein