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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #68,821
  • Aug 10, 2013 8:34am Aug 10, 2013 8:34am
Quoting redteamgo
B.I.G., 3215 is the only high probability support id be willing to buy right now. 3260/80 has been tested repeatedly. 3290 is weak at best, maybe take profit on a contract there just to book some profit. .... however, simply from a technical price perspective, friday's declines DID find buyers above support. failure to do so would have indicated a more imminent...


As price is currently constructed in the euro, I'm seeing some beautiful wave patterns to interpret. And that's what nearly all of my opinions in the euro are currently based on. A move back down to the low 1.32xx's would certainly muck everything up but it wouldn't "break" all those lovely waves. However, a move down to 1.3150 would. And price is painting much too pretty of a picture and respecting all those waves too graciously to just stop and smash the picture before finishing.

Yeah, I wouldn't read too much into a lack of a bounce on Friday afternoon.
  • #68,822
  • Aug 10, 2013 8:44am Aug 10, 2013 8:44am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} G'morning, I can tell you this Likerty, if euro falls to 1.3150 the bull trend is ka-put. You have a nice knack for S/R levels from what I've seen. Ever considered incorporating some EW analysis into your decisions?
Quoting redteamgo
simply from a technical price perspective, friday's declines DID find buyers above support
Just enough "buyers" to stop daily candle from bearish engulfing... You'will see a nice drop right through 3328 low as soon as in the beginning of the new week (maybe sunday night even..). 3328 low is not a support, just last buying impulse point which lost it's meaning after profit taking (not only in E/U) started. All the battle happened at 3360's and since these got broken - next swing is already decided - down.
As its not clear yet how deep it will go, but it can bounce at ANY point of 3400-2750 range. But as always there are two most probable scenarios - either it will renew its bulltrend just after some minor correction (3280/60's) or it will go deep enough just to start everyone thinking that trend is reversing.
"Deep enough" would be right after some "key" level gets breached and 3180's lows seems just right enoguh.
69
  • #68,823
  • Aug 10, 2013 8:50am Aug 10, 2013 8:50am
I am currently in a short for the eurusd with a target take profit from 1.3162 - 1.3175. may we all bank
  • #68,824
  • Aug 10, 2013 8:54am Aug 10, 2013 8:54am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} {quote} All the battle happened at 3360's and since these got broken
well, dont know about the rest of your view, but i definitely agree w this. 3365 was the only exposed support per your chart and not nearly major enough to carry this higher, thus 3215. sure, you'll get some peaks and valleys between here and there but it will be drawn there like an rare earth magnet imo. i don't carry the same conviction as you though, I simply consider down trend to be far more likely than not.

"what do i think it will do" vs "what could it do"?
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,825
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:02am Aug 10, 2013 9:02am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} {quote} Just enough "buyers" to stop daily candle from bearish engulfing... You'will see a nice drop right through 3328 low as soon as in the beginning of the new week (maybe sunday night even..). 3328 low is not a support,...
next swing is already decided - down. As its not clear yet how deep it will go, but it can bounce at ANY point of 3400-2750 range. But as always there are two most probable scenarios - either it will renew its bulltrend just after some minor correction (3280/60's) or...
Well, I posted on Thursday evening that 1.3325 was my first level of support, so I gotta disagree with you. I see that level as potentially holding before a sub wave that takes price above 1.34.

Sure, price "can" do just about anything. That's one of the first lessons we all learned trading this beast. I'm saying that a move below 1.3185/1.3165 will invalidate a whole lot of beautifully crafted wave stuff before it completes. And that would surprise me a great deal. Actually, a move below 1.3260 mucks things up so much I doubt it even gets below that before an actual top is in place. But that scenario still exists.
  • #68,826
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:08am Aug 10, 2013 9:08am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Well, I posted on Thursday evening that 1.3325 was my first level of support, so I gotta disagree with you. I see that level as potentially holding
do you want to bet a bottle on that assumption? Single malt?
69
  • #68,827
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:08am Aug 10, 2013 9:08am
4H chart..
I will be aware of this wedge..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #68,828
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:10am Aug 10, 2013 9:10am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} do you want to bet a bottle on that assumption? Single malt?
Ha. I have 15-20 pip cushion? I'd need some odds on that bet to make the R:R worthwhile.
  • #68,829
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:14am Aug 10, 2013 9:14am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Ha. I have 15-20 pip cushion? I'd need some odds on that bet to make the R:R worthwhile.
Its all about 3365 and 3325 range now. Whatever gets broken first - will be continuous and it sits right in the middle of this. So we both have equal 1:1 RR
69
  • #68,830
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:20am Aug 10, 2013 9:20am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Its all about 3365 and 3325 range now. Whatever gets broken first - will be continuous and it sits right in the middle of this. So we both have equal 1:1 RR
Not interested, that's still no mans land in my analysis. I don't have enough certainty about a 40 pip range right at the open.

Care to make it 1.3275 vs 1.3415?
  • #68,831
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:30am Aug 10, 2013 9:30am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Not interested, that's still no mans land in my analysis. I don't have enough certainty about a 40 pip range right at the open. Care to make it 1.3275 vs 1.3415?
I'm quite sure that 3415 will be broken, but will next bounce start from 3280/60's or lower - too early to tell..
69
  • #68,832
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:31am Aug 10, 2013 9:31am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} I'm quite sure that 3415 will be broken, but will next bounce start from 3280/60's or lower - too early to tell..
Ok, we'll both just pick up some longs early next week and the market will pay for our booze.
  • #68,833
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:38am Aug 10, 2013 9:38am
Shiver-me-timbers-lads....a bottle of Mount Gay Extra Old Rum says that the hourly fibo retracement holds for another test of the 3400 area ......yo ho ho and all that stuff
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aug 9 € close 60m.png Size: 49 KB
Attached Image
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #68,834
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:42am Aug 10, 2013 9:42am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Ok, we'll both just pick up some longs early next week and the market will pay for our booze.
I'll pick some shorts early next week
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  • #68,835
  • Aug 10, 2013 9:45am Aug 10, 2013 9:45am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} I'll pick some shorts early next week
, you do that. We'll find a way to become counter parties one way or another.
  • #68,836
  • Aug 10, 2013 10:00am Aug 10, 2013 10:00am
Quoting Islander
Shiver-me-timbers-lads....a bottle of Mount Gay Extra Old Rum says that the hourly fibo retracement holds for another test of the 3400 area ......yo ho ho and all that stuff {image} {image}
not sure which level you think will hold for a return to 3400. 3290 as support?

if you think 3290 +/- a few will be support back to 3400 ill take that bet. $20 via paypal?

nothing like a side bet on FX moves
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,837
  • Aug 10, 2013 10:35am Aug 10, 2013 10:35am
Quoting redteamgo
{quote} not sure which level you think will hold for a return to 3400. 3290 as support? if you think 3290 +/- a few will be support back to 3400 ill take that bet. $20 via paypal? nothing like a side bet on FX moves

For me, the retracement zone (Decision Zone) is the 38% to 61% retrace - but I'll go just with the 38% to 50% and then get to within 10 pips of the 3400.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #68,838
  • Edited 11:29am Aug 10, 2013 10:45am | Edited 11:29am
Quoting Islander
{quote} For me, the retracement zone (Decision Zone) is the 38% to 61% retrace - but I'll go just with the 38% to 50% and then get to within 10 pips of the 3400.....


OK. So 3290-3268 as support followed by retrace to 3400 +/- 10 for $20 usd via PayPal? we dont have to do $20 if you dont want to. its just for fun
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,839
  • Aug 10, 2013 12:36pm Aug 10, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} do you want to bet a bottle on that assumption? Single malt?
Do you have a whole cabinet full of Single Malta?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,840
  • Aug 10, 2013 12:38pm Aug 10, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting Islander
Shiver-me-timbers-lads....a bottle of Mount Gay Extra Old Rum says that the hourly fibo retracement holds for another test of the 3400 area ......yo ho ho and all that stuff {image} {image}
Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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