Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Printable Version

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

EurAnalysis

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} Okay boys and girls. Be nice to each other. Be more like CM... calm, cool and objective, but most importantly, polite.
Like a pimp.
Attached Image
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Like a pimp. {image}
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Like a pimp. {image}



Good Morning

How did you know ?

From Gains Pains & Capital - Graham Summers

No Link - Email

August 9, 2013
Buckle Up, the EU Crisis Will Be Back Soon

The financial media continues to talk about how Europe is saved.
It’s odd that somehow everything is starting to look so much better now than Angela Merkel is up for re-election in Germany. Could it be coincidence that the worst Crisis in years suddenly went away right as the women with her finger on the “bailout” button needed to convince German voters that she’s doing a great job?

Remember, politics drive everything in Europe, including the markets (Spain’s political scandals had a bigger impact on the Spanish Ibex than a myriad of horrific economic data). Which is why everything is on hold until the German election ends next month.
Meanwhile, underneath this veneer of calm, things worsen. Recently...

  1. Italy’s non-performing bank loans rose 22% year over year in May (the most recent data)
  2. Spain’ real non-performing loans are at 17%.
  3. The IMF predicts Spain’s unemployment will be over 25% for five years.
  4. Total EU youth unemployment just hit a new all time high, almost 25%.
  5. Cyprus just OK’d the theft of 47.5% of all deposits over €100,000 at its troubled banks (yes, people just lost nearly half of their savings).

The European markets look equally ugly.
Spain’s Ibex has traded sideways since late 2012. It’s now coming up against major resistance. We’ll see how that turns out.
http://gainspainscapital.com/wp-cont...13/08/sc-5.png
Germany’s Dax is forming a massive bearish rising wedge pattern.
http://gainspainscapital.com/wp-cont...13/08/sc-6.png
This market needs to explode to the upside or we’re going to see a correction that erases all of the gains since mid-2011.
The same is true of France:
http://gainspainscapital.com/wp-cont...13/08/sc-7.png
Again, we need a parabolic rise now or this is a false breakout and France’s shares are heading lower.
We’ve all seen how false hopes work out for the markets: BADLY. Given that Europe is beyond bankrupt at this point, I fully expect that that the EU Crisis will be back with a vengeance very shortly. When you consider that the entire EU banking system is leveraged at 26 to 1, it’s clear that there’s only one outcome possible here: implosion.

Folks, there is no other way to put this... the markets are in a massive bubble. And when it bursts, things will get ugly very FAST.

Quoting CurrencyMan
From Gains Pains & Capital - Graham Summers No Link - Email August 9, 2013 Buckle Up, the EU Crisis Will Be Back Soon The financial media continues to talk about how Europe is saved. It’s odd that somehow everything is starting to look so much better now than Angela Merkel is up for re-election in Germany. Could it be coincidence that the worst Crisis in years suddenly went away right as the women with her finger on the “bailout” button needed to convince German voters that she’s doing a great job? Remember, politics drive everything in Europe,...
Wow !!! I could have written that article myself. It spells out word by word what I feel is going to happen in the next 5 months.
Observation is the path to discovery.
Retail crowd still piling into E/U shorts... today at an even higher pace. More upside to come in the form of a squeeze.
From current levels we could get enough of a squeeze so that 3415 could be the top, but I'm still aiming for higher at this point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DailyFX - SSI- EUR-USD Could See One Last Burst Higher Before Resistance Found.png Size: 125 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Hi Piptrapper .. just curious is that data live and up to date as of today?

Reason I'm asking I would have thought most would have been stopped out or closed their shorts by now and waiting to re-establish them when price shows a top.
Quoting n_aftab
Hi Piptrapper .. just curious is that data live and up to date as of today? Reason I'm asking I would have thought most would have been stopped out or closed their shorts by now and waiting to re-establish them when price shows a top.
That was as of mid session.
The latest one now shows shorts pulling out and setting up fresh longs, but for a Friday it's not surprising.
Now we have to wait and see what the crowd does on Monday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DailyFX - SSI- AUDUSD Positioning Shows Tremendous Week-over-week Reversal.png Size: 181 KB


EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -3.19 as 24% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -3.82; 21% of open positions were long. Long positions are 12.8% higher than yesterday and 3.7% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 7.5% lower than yesterday and 26.2% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 3.3% lower than yesterday and 19.1% above its monthly average. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting davidsayli
EUR/USD H4 CHART {image}
LOL you can't be serious ....
Quoting PipTrapper
... 3415 could be the top, but I'm still aiming for higher at this point. {image}
Well, a trend is a trend is a trend....but will it bend? So far, the euro has been resilient.
Quoting Emanuel
{quote} LOL you can't be serious ....
He could be right. One never knows.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting tashkent
{quote} your probability is your illusion in your brain. ever heard of illusion? how many people do share your probability? if you have your probability would not that mean others too may have their own probabilities or do you consider your probability as universal?
Looks like my illusion worked out pretty well.

1 Scratched crude... let profit run all the way back to BE. Goddamn crude oil. Shorting at 0680.
2 made outstanding money trading es longs. Very choppy but perfectly technical
3 holding 2 euros fr 3400. Is it an illusion? Pinch me
Any prices quoted are futures
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} He could be right. One never knows.
Weekend event risk can make crazy things happen. Glad I have a buffer.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • Post #68,814
  • Quote
  • Edited Aug 10, 2013 5:06am Aug 9, 2013 6:03pm | Edited Aug 10, 2013 5:06am
Quoting Emanuel
{quote} Well, a trend is a trend is a trend....but will it bend? So far, the euro has been resilient.
How are trends started?

Is it not by a trend that has come to an end? ~Dr Seuss~

Yes, a trend is a trend, but only as long as it is a trend... till a new trend starts in the opposite direction.

The Euro has not been resilient. This is not about the Euro gaining any significant strength. If it was, then the Euro would be at 1.42xx by now. No Sir, this is about USD, GBP, AUD and JPY weakness due to extraordinary (and probably foolish) unconventional monetary policy by the respective central banks coupled with the impotence of the ECB. If the ECB were able to freely purchase sovereign bonds in the primary market, then they would have done so already and the Euro would be near parity to the USD.

Anyway, this is all going to change soon because the major economies of the world (other than the EuroZone), with the US in the lead, are now showing some promise of growth and as soon as the data supports it, the Fed is going to start tapering and that will cut off the EuroZone from all the liquidity it is receiving through Fed policy. If you think the EuroZone had a credit crisis before, just wait till the USD funding sources start to dry up.

Yes, the EuroZone is in for a nice surprise very soon. But hey, it can only help them. When the Euro is finally beaten down to where it belongs, all the non-competitive EZ states (mostly the Southern ones) will finally have a chance to regain their competitiveness and start their long and painful journey of deleveraging themselves.

Face it, The Eurozone doesn't stand a chance of recovering until their trading partners start booming. So if the US fails and their economy sinks again, they will take not only the EZ down with them, but also China, and then the dominoes will start falling. Australia will be next unless they diversify away from the mining sector. With less demand for traditional energy resources (oil), the middle east will be next, and before you know it, WWIII will start. So, there is much at stake here and it is up to the US to get us all out of it. Be it via real economic growth, or via another housing bubble, it has to happen at any cost. Otherwise, God save us all.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting redteamgo
{quote} Looks like my illusion worked out pretty well. 1 Scratched crude... let profit run all the way back to BE. Goddamn crude oil. Shorting at 0680. 2 made outstanding money trading es longs. Very choppy but perfectly technical 3 holding 2 euros fr 3400. Is it an illusion? Pinch me
Excellent Red. Glad you had an opportunity to cover all or most of those losses you had to take on the ags limit down. Was it soybean? Can't remember.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Excellent Red. Glad you had an opportunity to cover all or most of those losses you had to take on the ags limit down. Was it soybean? Can't remember.
Yes the great crash of 2013

2 back to back days of limit down. I'm out of ags til the new crop year in Dec/ Nov

Love ES. Its almost free money. Thanks ben!
Any prices quoted are futures
Quoting redteamgo
{quote} Yes the great crash of 2013 2 back to back days of limit down. I'm out of ags til the new crop year in Dec/ Nov Love ES. Its almost free money. Thanks ben!
You're welcome

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Helicopter-Ben-Bernanke.jpg Size: 131 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} the Fed is going to start tapering and that will cut off the EuroZone from all the liquidity it is receiving through Fed policy. If you think the EuroZone had a credit crisis before, just wait till the USD funding sources start to dry up.
Thats probably exactly the reason why batsards are so eager to get the best E/U price possible before loading the trade of the lifetime. hyper trending without much of a retracement sort of confirms the rush..
As for now, looks like EU, GU, UCHF, AU.. settling to correct a little bit..
3280/60's will show it's willingness to continue from there or it will make a sneaky dive in to 3150's.
One thing is for sure - bull trend is not over yet

NY made me take some losses - I gave back overnight gains and part of thursdays profits, but weekly results are just fine enough - 200 pips out of 200 pip range
M15:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15 Mins_weekly.png Size: 59 KB
69
Quoting Likerty
{quote} 3280/60's will show it's willingness to continue from there or it will make a sneaky dive in to 3150's. One thing is for sure - bull trend is not over yet M15: {image}
G'morning,

I can tell you this Likerty, if euro falls to 1.3150 the bull trend is ka-put.

You have a nice knack for S/R levels from what I've seen. Ever considered incorporating some EW analysis into your decisions?
B.I.G., 3215 is the only high probability support id be willing to buy right now. 3260/80 has been tested repeatedly. 3290 is weak at best, maybe take profit on a contract there just to book some profit. nothing wrong with 110 ticks on 125k units (1 contract). without a central bank cheerleading this pair higher, a major push for new highs seems to be less likely.

however, simply from a technical price perspective, friday's declines DID find buyers above support. failure to do so would have indicated a more imminent down trend. devil's advocate from that perspective, there was not a strong bounce out of the hole indicating the possibility of only temporary support. how much of that weak buying is due to a friday afternoon? no one really wants to get in on a friday after a fade from a major high so it is not unreasonable to argue that point.

my view.. i'm strictly a price trader when it comes to flat prices, don't care about news, data, ISM, etc. all of that is BS imo and simply leads to a buying or selling opp etc based on daily/weekly trend. having said that, i see the following:

1. major daily high @ 3400
2. weak follow through buying
3. fade down 60ish ticks
4. weak buying out of so-so support levels
5. close flat at support

i like to keep it simple. i dont see a continuation and will trade accordingly. but hey, i've been wrong before and will be again. even the best (which i'm not) take a loss. just my brain's illusion to keep in mind.
Any prices quoted are futures
2 traders viewing now