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  • #68,761
  • Aug 8, 2013 9:12pm Aug 8, 2013 9:12pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
{quote} I sure would not want to keep shorting it to 1.5000 Any discussion is a good discussion.
agreed. have to have an entry and exit plan
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,762
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:45pm Aug 8, 2013 10:45pm
Quoting redteamgo
{quote} sure I can. ever heard of this little thing called probability? let's say it retraced to 3215 all of a sudden. would you want to get long there after a failed test of highs resulting in a lower high? i hope not. you dont buy at the top or sell at the bottom if you want to make money. adding longs at current levels is less than prudent regardless of where your average is. even if you make 50 ticks with a new long 3390-3400+ its not worth the risk. risk 200 ticks to make 20, not smart. on the other hand, re: shorting 3400, how about risk 75...
your probability is your illusion in your brain. ever heard of illusion?
how many people do share your probability? if you have your probability would not that mean others too may have their own probabilities or do you consider your probability as universal?
As Above, So Below
  • #68,763
  • Aug 8, 2013 10:50pm Aug 8, 2013 10:50pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
{quote} Thanks for the comments. Actually what I was trying to say is that the present perception seems to be that with the debt problems with Spain, Italy, Greece and France EUR/USD could weaken. The excellent research article by Merck talked about LTRO being repaid and the balance sheet of the ECB is in better shape than the FED's. Also if USD/JPY gets to 110.00 then EUR/JPY needs to rise bringing EUR/USD along. I have not decided anything at the moment. I am thinking about it or at least taking notice of the possibility. I sure would not want...
CM, a good fundamentalist, but before everything, a GOOD man.
thanks.
As Above, So Below
  • #68,764
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:01pm Aug 8, 2013 11:01pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} CM, a good fundamentalist, but before everything, a GOOD man. thanks.
Hello,

srry I'm new in this, so don't take me to seriously, still trying to learn a lot... But trying to share my opinion and triing to see if my thinking has some sense...

Regarding this fundamentals, EUR data this week looked much better then expectation. US data was according to expectation... Since PIIGS debt is already included in EUR/USD price, and even southern countries shows some improvements, I don't understand why EUR should go significantly down to USD?! Especially since FED is printing huge amount of money. And after initial signal they will stop with this, now is not so certain. And knowing US mentality I believe they won't stop... Not in September definitely...

I don't understand why you say EUR will go down so much, so if you can please clarify... THX!
  • #68,765
  • Aug 8, 2013 11:39pm Aug 8, 2013 11:39pm
My view on EURNZD.

GOOD POINT TO SALE LONG TERM.
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  • #68,766
  • Edited 8:50am Aug 9, 2013 1:55am | Edited 8:50am
Okay so I am not going to pull out my chest full of valid reasons why the Euro belongs further towards parity. No matter what the data says, there are serious structural issue in the Eurozone and anything short of a solid banking and fiscal union is just a festering wound... and with all festering wounds, eventually you need to address why it is festering instead of just pouring antiseptic over it.

Anyway, what I am doing here is basically trying to pick a top.

The retail traders are still piling into Euro shorts and until they capitulate, this sucker will keep rising.

So... when do we reverse?

The following is a case for reversing around the 3500 mark which I posted in "The Club" yesterday.

If the retail traders are still piling in with more shorts when (if) we reach 1.3500, then that level gets blown away also and it's back to the drawing board, but till then, this is it.

Monthly. Next upside target is 1.3500 area
1. Lots of room below parity (looks inviting)
2. Descending triangle
3. Next resistance is falling TL, 50% fibo, supply zone
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Weekly. Next upside target is 1.3500 area
1. Same falling trend line resistance
2. Weekly 50% fibo is 1.3490 so pretty much the same area
3. Also weekly supply zone starts there.
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Daily. Next upside target is 1.3500 area
1. Same falling trend line
2. Daily 78.6% fibo is 1.3503... also in the same area
3. Daily supply zone stretches from 1.3440 to 1.3520
4. Rising wedge also completely contracts in that same price zone.
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H4. Guess what? Same price target... 1.3500 area
1. Same falling trend line
2. Same rising wedge
3. Similar supply zone
4. H4 113% fibo level at 1.3504
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and there you have it. Quick and dirty.

...and here's the EW count
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,767
  • Aug 9, 2013 1:56am Aug 9, 2013 1:56am
Quoting CurrencyMan
As I stated my thoughts are still evolving and usually if EUR/JPY moves UP as USD/JPY moves UP (Gets Weaker) then that helps EUR/USD move UP.
Lots of interesting analysis in your previous posts. I like the distinction you're emphasizing between Fed tapering and rate policy. Food for thought...

One thing I noticed is your mention of the correlation between UJ, EJ and EU. So we know that EJ is a Cross pair, ie. EJ = UJ * EU. The multiplication factor of UJ is greater (say 100.xx) than the factor of EU (1.xx) so UJ could be seen as the dominant price determinant for EJ.

I get the impression that EJ is a derived pair which is technically traded but that the pushes and pulls on EJ have their origin in the movements of UJ (mostly) and to a lesser extent EU. Hence, the prospect of UJ going to 110.00 by necessity means EU is forced down although EJ will still put in a net upward movement.

What do you think? Would you stil consider going long EU eventhough it is near the upper end of it's parity extremes? Also, yes, the ECB books may be in a better shape than the Fed's but, in some way, the ECB's prospects are worse: rising nationalism in the EU, pending defaults, slowing China and general malaise that they have been doing well to "frame as carefully-managed" whereas the situation on the ground (and the periphery) required a deposit confiscation last time someone threw their hands in the air. Of course, and this is not openly discussed for some reason, a lot of Fed QE involves monthly pay-outs to banks in Europe and therefore benefits the ECB - so any "taper" would instantly mean a funding and liquidity cutback for the ECB's books - nevermind an inevitable rise in global policy rates.

That's my understanding of the dire situation. It is not salvageable nor is collapse avoidable. Which currencies we choose to trade will be critical, although short-termism in the market may be wise in view of the expected volatility: UJ 110 one day, 90 the next. For me the main concern is if my broker will be able to pay me out on, say, a catastrophic Index CFD drop with the short in my favour!

edit: i misread your post and corrected my ref to EJ as UJ
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #68,768
  • Aug 9, 2013 2:04am Aug 9, 2013 2:04am
corrected some garbled editing re: UJ, EJ and EU in my previous post.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #68,769
  • Aug 9, 2013 2:04am Aug 9, 2013 2:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay so I am not going to pull out my chest full of valid reasons why the Euro belongs further towards parity. No matter what the data says, there are serious structural issue in the Eurozone and anything short of a solid banking and fiscal union is just a festering wound... and with all festering wounds, eventually you need to address why it is festering instead of just pouring antiseptic over it. Anyway, what I am doing here is basically trying to pick a top. The retail traders are still piling into Euro shorts and until they capitulate, this...
Oops, almost forgot the EW count, so here it is on the weekly chart. Nothing changes there, even if the squeeze goes all the way up to 1.3710, it will still be a valid count. Beyond that, the alternative kicks in.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,770
  • Aug 9, 2013 2:16am Aug 9, 2013 2:16am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Lots of interesting analysis in your previous posts. I like the distinction you're emphasizing between Fed tapering and rate policy. Food for thought... One thing I noticed is your mention of the correlation between UJ, EJ and EU. So we know that EJ is a Cross pair, ie. EJ = UJ * EU. The multiplication factor of UJ is greater (say 100.xx) than the factor of EU (1.xx) so UJ could be seen as the dominant price determinant for EJ. I get the impression that EJ is a derived pair which is technically traded but that the pushes and pulls on EJ...
Very good venzen. My sentiments exactly.

In regards to your broker being able to pay you out on a limit down in which you happen to be on the right side of the trade, that all depends on your broker's risk. Is your broker putting his own money on the table, or is he passing the risk onto the market? You gotta watch out for those bucket shops... especially now-a-days in the Eurozone with depositors paying for institutional greed... and in the US with depositors supposedly segregated funds finding their way into failed real estate developments in crocodile country.

P.S. A vouch for you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,771
  • Aug 9, 2013 2:24am Aug 9, 2013 2:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Very good venzen. My sentiments exactly. In regards to your broker being able to pay you out on a limit down in which you happen to be on the right side of the trade, that all depends on your broker's risk. Is your broker putting his own money on the table, or is he passing the risk onto the market? You gotta watch out for those bucket shops... especially now-a-days in the Eurozone with depositors paying for institutional greed... and in the US with depositors supposedly segregated funds finding their way into failed real estate...

PT, thanks for your V. Always happy to find agreeable conversationalists in these badlands

My broker is Oanda, so they are well-monied and regulated. However, i am alluding to the outside chance of a slow and sustained market crash. So say someone goes short 10,000 contract the Dow at maximum leverage and 3 months later it has lost 8,000 points and everybody and their uncle has joined the rout across the board... will Oanda suspend pay-outs? They might.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #68,772
  • Aug 9, 2013 2:28am Aug 9, 2013 2:28am
Quoting venzen
{quote} PT, thanks for your V. Always happy to find agreeable conversationalists in these badlands My broker is Oanda, so they are well-monied and regulated. However, i am alluding to the outside chance of a slow and sustained market crash. So say someone goes short 10,000 contract the Dow at maximum leverage and 3 months later it has lost 8,000 points and everybody and their uncle has joined the rout across the board... will Oanda suspend pay-outs? They might.
No Oanda is not a bucket shop. They do not take the risk on their own books. When you place an order with Oanda, that order is passed on to and filled by the market. Oanda only makes money on the spread/commission (depending on the type of account you have with them).
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,773
  • Aug 9, 2013 2:31am Aug 9, 2013 2:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Oops, almost forgot the EW count, so here it is on the weekly chart. Nothing changes there, even if the squeeze goes all the way up to 1.3710, it will still be a valid count. Beyond that, the alternative kicks in. {image}

Like the wave count. I hope it turns out to be THE ONE. I suspect massive manipulation in the EU price movements and hope the institutions behind it are not setting up a fatal bear trap with this current chart formation... so many retailers have been jumping in short for weeks now and still the big players are net long...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #68,774
  • Aug 9, 2013 2:39am Aug 9, 2013 2:39am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Like the wave count. I hope it turns out to be THE ONE. I suspect massive manipulation in the EU price movements and hope the institutions behind it are not setting up a fatal bear trap with this current chart formation... so many retailers have been jumping in short for weeks now and still the big players are net long...
Oh the final move up will be a short squeeze for sure... especially with the small fish so heavily net short. It's gonna be a huge pig roast party for the big bulls.

Then what will happen is that some of the baby bears will get a margin call, the remaining few will bail out and start planning their strategy to go long.

So as that happens (after the short squeeze), the euro will start to drop and you will see the retail traders start to build Euro long positions while smart money drives the price down and I will be eating my bbq beef.

Rinse and repeat
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,775
  • Aug 9, 2013 2:49am Aug 9, 2013 2:49am
Quoting CurrencyMan
Hello PipTrapper and Friends here... I have been doing most of my posting on my thread at Ace Gazette. The Premium Trading Thread started on February 19, 2013. This morning I read a research report by Merck Investments and it opened my mind to a new possibility concerning the EUR/USD Pair. I will re post most of it here and ask for some feedback on my idea about EUR/USD perhaps heading more towards 1.5000 instead of 1.2500 www.merkinvestments.com/downloads/2013-0...currency-outlook.pdf...
A lamans opinion...

Fundamentals are ruling the stage in 2013 in my opinion. Honest Abe can back me up on that.

So that being said, Draghi is already flenching at the current EU price...if it pushes 1.40, it will only spell further disaster for the EU. Only reason euro is making moves is because the headlines are looking elsewhere. In my opinion the combined debt of US, Japan and EU nations will spell a big change like we have never seen before in history. Its already continued well past its due date. The countries are the only ones buying their own debt. US is at like 90% of treasuries purchased by Fed reserve...IMF and Abe are not far behind.
Draghi won't let euro get there...sorry...just an opinion but he's already proven this year he likes to keep its levels from expanding.
At this point its a game of which ponzi scheme leaders get to the new wires first.
  • #68,776
  • Aug 9, 2013 2:52am Aug 9, 2013 2:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Oh the final move up will be a short squeeze for sure... especially with the small fish so heavily net short. It's gonna be a huge pig roast party for the big bulls. Then what will happen is that some of the baby bears will get a margin call, the remaining few will bail out and start planning their strategy to go long. So as that happens (after the short squeeze), the euro will start to drop and you will see the retail traders start to build Euro long positions while smart money drives the price down and I will be eating my bbq beef. ...
I see two places on a weekly chart, where next squeezes could happen...
69
  • #68,777
  • Aug 9, 2013 3:08am Aug 9, 2013 3:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Oh the final move up will be a short squeeze for sure... especially with the small fish so heavily net short. It's gonna be a huge pig roast party for the big bulls. Then what will happen is that some of the baby bears will get a margin call, the remaining few will bail out and start planning their strategy to go long. So as that happens (after the short squeeze), the euro will start to drop and you will see the retail traders start to build Euro long positions while smart money drives the price down and I will be eating my bbq beef. ...
I feel we may have gotten the short squeeze yesterday and it coincided nicely with cable reaching resistance at the 200 SMA. We may have reached the top here. At least, I hope so. I am one of those heavily short retail investors you speak about...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #68,778
  • Aug 9, 2013 3:20am Aug 9, 2013 3:20am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} I see two places on a weekly chart, where next squeezes could happen...
My opinion is that is only a dream. As I have opined before, Draghi will not like it if the Euro progresses too far upwards. Furthermore, the Fed has no choice but to taper its purchases because soon there will be nothing left to purchase. The US treasury is reporting fiscal budget surpluses in the last quarter and the remaining funding needs for 2013 are extremely modest. If the Fed keeps on purchasing at these rates, the whole bond market will become seriously destabilized. In fact, they will kill it. Once QE is wrapped up, the dollar will soar.

So if you think that you're going to see 3700+ prices in the Euro, I think you're going to be extremely disappointed. I will never say "never", but I will say "very highly unlikely".
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,779
  • Aug 9, 2013 3:26am Aug 9, 2013 3:26am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} I feel we may have gotten the short squeeze yesterday and it coincided nicely with cable reaching resistance at the 200 SMA. We may have reached the top here. At least, I hope so. I am one of those heavily short retail investors you speak about...
Mr Lorente. How nice to see you post here. Unfortunately I do not see this as the top. It may not rise all the way to 1.3500 as I said in my previous analysis, but as long as the retail crowd is heavily net short and still adding to their positions, the Euro will not drop. However,it may stay at current levels for a long time. Basically the only way it is going down is if...
a. The retail crowd stops building new short positions
b. A short squeezing rally to wipe out the weak retail shorts.
c. A surprise news event.
Until then, the bottom for the Euro is probably around 1.3340
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,780
  • Aug 9, 2013 3:30am Aug 9, 2013 3:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} My opinion is that is only a dream. As I have opined before, Draghi will not like it if the Euro progresses too far upwards. Furthermore, the Fed has no choice but to taper its purchases because soon there will be nothing left to purchase. The US treasury is reporting fiscal budget surpluses in the last quarter and the remaining funding needs for 2013 are extremely modest. If the Fed keeps on purchasing at these rates, the whole bond market will become seriously destabilized. In fact, they will kill it. Once QE is wrapped up, the dollar...
I agree with you. Europe is in tatters. They are pinning their hopes on a couple of PMI reports that show contraction slowing but most of that may be tourism related. Today´s French Industrial Production report may be a preview of a renewed slowdown come the fall. The Euro must come down to parity for reasons of competitiveness. If not, Europe is looking at no growth for 10 to 20 years along with record unemployment.

Just keep your eye on the next round of elections in the perifery in the next 2 to 3 years. I live in Spain and the comments I´m hearing should worry the hell out of the two major parties.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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