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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #68,661
  • Aug 5, 2013 1:41pm Aug 5, 2013 1:41pm
When I look at the weekly chart that is what I see. If price goes above the 1.3336 high I will be bullish until then I'll be trading shorts only
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  • #68,662
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:26pm Aug 5, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting Islander
{quote} Hi Likerty - can you please expand a little on this statement - I can see the month's end push down under the 9270 area support on ultra high volume - but why are you now looking for another break of the 9270 area? Regards Islander PS please don't tell me its an EW count - put 10 Ellioticians in a room and you will get 20 different wave counts - whoops apologies PT {image}
If you take fridays range, 150% points to it, but the point is this is older level from couple of weeks ago, bastards deliberately stopped for bullish (EU bearish) W close knowing that they will have a chance to screw the range back and forth again and attack this target from better postion (higher entry) making twice in the same range/trade scenario.
You can spot from intraday PA, that profits where forcefully taken this morning on the failure to proceed bellow fridays lows..
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  • #68,663
  • Aug 5, 2013 4:42pm Aug 5, 2013 4:42pm
E / U target 3208!?
invalidate... breakout 3300..
4H chart..
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  • #68,664
  • Aug 5, 2013 4:44pm Aug 5, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting Islander
{quote} Hi Likerty - can you please expand a little on this statement - I can see the month's end push down under the 9270 area support on ultra high volume - but why are you now looking for another break of the 9270 area? Regards Islander PS please don't tell me its an EW count - put 10 Ellioticians in a room and you will get 20 different wave counts - whoops apologies PT {image}
You're wrong. 10 Elliotticians will produce much more than 20 variations because 9 of those elliotticians don't know their a$$ from their elbow
I think you'll get 30 from the 9 and 2 from the one who knows. That means you'll have 2 good counts. One will be bearish and one will be bullish. Pretty much the same as any other system.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,665
  • Aug 5, 2013 4:47pm Aug 5, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} With EU pointing to 3700's I woulnt be so sure PA will lead the way.. 9220's is a profit taking point - not a support per se. If EU wont be at its resistance at that time - UC may go much deeper.. Generally I see UC as an intermediary of sorts - its direction belongs to EU, its difficult to forecast large moves for this pair.. Waiting AU at 8830's tonight
I am not sure of anything. I'm just going by what I see now. 3700 is not the next stop and it shouldn't even be considered unless 3415 resistance is destroyed. However, you seem to be sure the Euro will reach 3700, unless you're just taking the piss
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,666
  • Aug 5, 2013 4:48pm Aug 5, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting gone4pips
When I look at the weekly chart that is what I see. If price goes above the 1.3336 high I will be bullish until then I'll be trading shorts only {image}
Now that's the way it should be looked at.
Well done
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,667
  • Aug 5, 2013 4:51pm Aug 5, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting chess king
E / U target 3208!? invalidate... breakout 3300.. 4H chart.. {image}
Looking at the same setup myself on H1.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,668
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:00pm Aug 5, 2013 5:00pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Looking at the same setup myself on H1. {image}

fishing summer has to be that way ...a little at a time ..
  • #68,669
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:05pm Aug 5, 2013 5:05pm
Can I ask a dumb question?

Who cares how many waves there are? Is not every move a simple supply demand curve as price approaches x?
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,670
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:11pm Aug 5, 2013 5:11pm
Quoting redteamgo
Can I ask a dumb question? Who cares how many waves there are? Is not every move a simple supply demand curve as price approaches x?
I don't think that's a dumb question. In fact it's a great question.
Yes, every wave is about supply and demand.
What drives supply and demand? Sentiment.
How does one measure sentiment? Many ways and one of those is Elliott wave theory.
It's not rocket science.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,671
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:17pm Aug 5, 2013 5:17pm
Why complicate it? I hate to say it but 99% of my trades are based s/d and how a market feels. No Indies other than volume
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,672
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:28pm Aug 5, 2013 5:28pm
Quoting redteamgo
Why complicate it? I hate to say it but 99% of my trades are based s/d and how a market feels. No Indies other than volume
It's not about complicating it. It's about simplifying it. If you have a better idea of the next path a currency pair should be about to take, then it is easier to plan your trades.
Of course like any other system, it is not (and probably will never be) 100% accurate, but it helps me.

Naked charts with volume idies help you.
EW counts and supply/demand indies help me

Everyone has their own methods

All I can say is that over the last few years I have been slowly taking Elliott counts into consideration (in confluence with fundies and supply/demand, Traditional PA, VWAP, VSA and other such methods) and the more I have used them (more so lately) the more accurate my trade decisions have been.

Like everything in life, you cannot knock it till you've tried it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,673
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:40pm Aug 5, 2013 5:40pm
Touche, fair enough
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,674
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:45pm Aug 5, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} It's not about complicating it. It's about simplifying it. If you have a better idea of the next path a currency pair should be about to take, then it is easier to plan your trades. Of course like any other system, it is not (and probably will never be) 100% accurate, but it helps me. Naked charts with volume idies help you. EW counts and supply/demand indies help me Everyone has their own methods All I can say is that over the last few years I have been slowly taking Elliott counts into consideration (in confluence with fundies and supply/demand,...
my question is more complicated!
cars painted in different colors ... for what?
  • #68,675
  • Aug 5, 2013 9:32pm Aug 5, 2013 9:32pm
I wouldn't normally get back in outside of a major level but i think its more likely than not this will fade overnight and I am willing to risk 17 ticks (3285 stop) on a hunch. short just 1 contract fr 3268.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,676
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:44pm Aug 5, 2013 11:44pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} my question is more complicated! cars painted in different colors ... for what?
It's a woman thing
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,677
  • Aug 6, 2013 12:55am Aug 6, 2013 12:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You're wrong. 10 Elliotticians will produce much more than 20 variations because 9 of those elliotticians don't know their a$$ from their elbow I think you'll get 30 from the 9 and 2 from the one who knows. That means you'll have 2 good counts. One will be bearish and one will be bullish. Pretty much the same as any other system.
A couple of years ago I worked on EW with a friend who purchased that expensive EW software - I think it was Australian - we almost always came up with different wave counts and so I moved on to being an intra day "activity" follower, happy to bank regular pips.

I am impressed that you have found your own way to make EW work for you
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #68,678
  • Aug 6, 2013 1:06am Aug 6, 2013 1:06am
Quoting Islander
{quote} A couple of years ago I worked on EW with a friend who purchased that expensive EW software - I think it was Australian - we almost always came up with different wave counts and so I moved on to being an intra day "activity" follower, happy to bank regular pips. I am impressed that you have found your own way to make EW work for you
EW sucks in the smaller time frames because corrective counts can go on forever. However, when you identify a larger time frame impulse, it's a really nice wave to ride and thereby bank a boatload of pips over several months. It's the same as riding the trend with the added benefit of knowing what stage in the trend you are in because you have all the data to effectively discriminate between an impulse wave and a corrective wave.

So I use that to compliment supply/demand, Moving averages and my previously explained bastardized versions of volume weighting and VSA style PA.
To me, it's just another tool.

BTW. Good morning
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,679
  • Aug 6, 2013 1:20am Aug 6, 2013 1:20am
Indeedy - GM

As a few other pairs have crept into your thread, I hope Swissy is OK....

A low volume hammer made a higher low and I wonder if that has satisfied the downside position building by the Big Dogs..

PS Likerty - thanks for your reply .
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #68,680
  • Aug 6, 2013 1:29am Aug 6, 2013 1:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I am not sure of anything. I'm just going by what I see now. 3700 is not the next stop and it shouldn't even be considered unless 3415 resistance is destroyed. However, you seem to be sure the Euro will reach 3700, unless you're just taking the piss
I'm using word "sure" in relative terms of course.. Sure enough to put money in it
3700 is far away, and yes - it needs a breakout after the next breakout to get there, but with all HH's and HL's in last 14 months and ongoing surge I would say that to continue higher is more likely than moving down from here (2740-3410).

If yesterdays lows gives, 320x would be the next place to bet against the 3185, but I would rather wait for 3130's for that. Will see how others positioning against the dollar.. UJ was much better trade lately
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