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Sonic R. System

  • #55,361
  • Edited 2:53pm Aug 4, 2013 2:40pm | Edited 2:53pm
Quoting DmitryFX
{quote} Experiment with EurAud. I don't like current DD because of this trades - it's about 20%. My the main mistake was placing orders by every levels instead of place by signals. Below marked good entries - there were 4 good of them, maximum 6. Good lesson and good example. Hope current depo will be enough to prevent MC if price will continue to move to the north.... {image}
Simple supply and demand trading at any of your yellow marked areas- no pvsra hokus pokus there-

Not all volume breaking whole and half areas is reversing volume in an uptrend or vice versa for a downtrend.

Never has never will be.

As I have stipulated many times before, where does price bounce from ie a monthy,weekly,daily area etc then price will more often
will want to meet any of those areas for a retest.

It is in between those timeframes you will plant your pvsra seeds, Knowing where any of those areas are in any given timeframe. Not anywhere else.

Looking at your 30 min chart . it only gives you a limited view in the bigger overall timeframes view.

H.
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #55,362
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:01pm Aug 4, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting Islander
As mentioned earlier, I have also been busy extracing some of the more relevent posts from the three months starting on April 10th - the remainder will follow when time permits. I hope that these will help in some way to add to your own growing total of banked pips {image}
Thank you very much Islander, you had no need to gather all that information but you did it. Really appreciate that.

Now that I have enough knowledge (imho) regarding volume and so on (thanks to PVSRA position building system) I want to go back to the "normal" way, and that pdf is really helpful.

Thanks again.

Best, Tymedu.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #55,363
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:02pm Aug 4, 2013 3:02pm
Quote
in a downtren they could be trading short pushing the prices down and building long positions for the next reversal to the uptrend

Hi qFish, this is the same idea that we had been talking about few weeks ago. I have that in my mind but i have problems to put it in words (i think that all of you can imagine this reading my posts ,english isnīt my natural lenguage). I think that MMs can be building short positions, for example, in a uptrend while at the same time they are running for profits of their previous downtrend. I hope i have put it better this time. Tahīs image is perfect to illustrate my idea.

Quote
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1246653&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1375631961

Btw, congratulations for your succes trades . Regards.
  • #55,364
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:23pm Aug 4, 2013 3:23pm
Quoting Islander
As mentioned earlier, I have also been busy extracing some of the more relevent posts from the three months starting on April 10th - the remainder will follow when time permits. I hope that these will help in some way to add to your own growing total of banked pips {image}
Thank you very much Islander
Newbie trader
  • #55,365
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:54pm Aug 4, 2013 3:54pm
Quoting DmitryFX
{quote} Experiment with EurAud. I don't like current DD because of this trades - it's about 20%. My the main mistake was placing orders by every levels instead of place by signals. Below marked good entries - there were 4 good of them, maximum 6. Good lesson and good example. Hope current depo will be enough to prevent MC if price will continue to move to the north.... {image}
It's great to make trades only when the market is about to get a reversal, but it is shown that no one knows.

For simplicity, I try to put one entrie every 25 to 50 pips (depending ATR diary) and improve the average, it may not be the best, but it is the easiest thing until I know how to optimize it. Sometimes operations are unnecessary, but others take great prices.

By the way: How to put the white arrows on the entries (average price indicator ), please?
Newbie trader
  • #55,366
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:08pm Aug 4, 2013 4:08pm
Just FYI:

Quote
biggest story weekend New Zealand milk blocked all accross Asia and Russia NZDUSD off 100 points at 7750 on open

Why did that happen? Cause I closed my NZDUSD trade Friday xD
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #55,367
  • Edited 5:42pm Aug 4, 2013 5:22pm | Edited 5:42pm
Looking for a Trade....

With a number of trades already running, looking for another offers few choices. UCad is one of them. I closed out my UCad long trade Friday, but taking a fresh look at it, I see reason to look for a re-entry long.

H1 shows repeated downwards pullbacks with notable volume at the lows or coming up off the lows late last week, indicating the MMs are loading up on longs. So, the logical thing to do is to either look for an M15 Classic long setup and enter, or look for another downwards pullback on notable volume and enter with a Scout.

With other trades pretty much just waiting for the tides to turn, there is not much for me to do. So UCad is my fresh stalk for the week. If this manages to provide a nice entry, what are the prospects for the trade? Looking at the Day chart and using the FE tool, the FE 100% and the RWH mark are beckoning the price, imho. That would make a decent trade. All that remains is for the MMs to accommodate with another nice drop in price/pullback to provide a good long entry.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,368
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:32pm Aug 4, 2013 5:32pm
Quoting Islander
As mentioned earlier, I have also been busy extracing some of the more relevent posts from the three months starting on April 10th - the remainder will follow when time permits. I hope that these will help in some way to add to your own growing total of banked pips {image}
  • #55,369
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:40pm Aug 4, 2013 5:40pm
Quoting traderathome
Looking for a Trade.... With a number of trades already running, looking for another offers few choices. UCad is one of them. I closed out my UCad long trade Friday, but taking a fresh look at it, I see reason to look for a re-entry long. H1 shows repeated downwards pullbacks with notable volume at the lows or coming up off the lows late last week, indicating the MMs are loading up on longs. So, the logical thing to do is to either look for an M15 Classic long setup and enter, or look for another downwards pullback on notable volume and enter with...
Hi tah.

This looks like a possible representation of the 3 dragons in play on the 1hour TA...?

If so, what would the indi params be for the respective EMA? Thank you
  • #55,370
  • Edited 6:22pm Aug 4, 2013 5:50pm | Edited 6:22pm
Quoting figgsey
{quote} Hi tah. This looks like a possible representation of the 3 dragons in play on the 1hour TA...? If so, what would the indi params be for the respective EMA? Thank you
figgsey,

If you look closely at my chart you will see the label that describes what is being displayed. To directly answer, I am using the 136 ema because it is 4x the 34 ema of the Dragon. This means on the M15 chart, it shows the H1 Dragon, which was my primary intent, but it might be a helpful visual aid on other chart TFs, too.

The idea here is to use the fact that moving average lines are lagging indicators to advantage, because when a longer period MA finally moves to confirm a trend or direction, it becomes a warning against building positions against the direction. This would be especially valid if volume at previous highs or lows, what ever is appropriate for the "picture", also confirms the direction. Just consider this experimentation with the intent to discover ways to assure trade building is in the right direction.

In the case of UCad, PVSRA indicates the bulls have taken over, so downwards pullbacks are places to send out Scouts. I am looking either for that opportunity to re-enter long, or for a Classic long setup. Let's see what this first day of the week brings. Typically it is a day when the MMs position price for their building, ahead of moves that maybe come later in the week. I anticipate that this might happen today, and that the MMs will again depress the price so they can resume building long.

If the MMs manage to drive the price back down thru the lower half number (towards RDL), their long entries there could gain 200 pips if they later drive the price up to RWH (refer back to the Day chart in my previous post). Anyway, this is my outlook for a long trade on UCad.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,371
  • Aug 4, 2013 6:40pm Aug 4, 2013 6:40pm
UJ Comment:

I have a long trade running on this one, but it looks worth commenting on.

The bulls have taken over. You can see how the MMs pushed the price down last week with high volumes at the lows or coming up off the lows, much of this before the price began visibly trending up. PVSRA indicates the MMs are bulls. Friday the MMs again pushed the price down through a whole SR on notable volume, and pretty much kept it there into the close. So, with all the history here of the MMs seeking lows to do most of their trading, there are good prospects for this to run higher, eventually.

As Monday is often a day when the MMs position prices to enhance their position building ahead of whatever they have planned for later in the week, this might be one to watch to see if there is again a push down, and if such a push brings in notable activity as before, indicating the MMs are bulls loading up on longs. Today could bring a long entry opportunity, either by way of an M15 Sonic R. Classic long setup, or a Scout entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aug 2013 - 005.png Size: 71 KB
  • #55,372
  • Edited 7:24pm Aug 4, 2013 7:01pm | Edited 7:24pm
Quoting hansma
{quote} Simple supply and demand trading at any of your yellow marked areas- no pvsra hokus pokus there- Not all volume breaking whole and half areas is reversing volume in an uptrend or vice versa for a downtrend. Never has never will be. As I have stipulated many times before, where does price bounce from ie a monthy,weekly,daily area etc then price will more often will want to meet any of those areas for a retest. It is in between those timeframes you will plant your pvsra seeds, Knowing where any of those areas are in any given timeframe. Not...
Hansma,

"Not all volume breaking whole and half areas is reversing volume in an uptrend or vice versa for a downtrend. Never has never will be." - hansma

Of course not. We all agree with that. For example, if high volume occurs at lows at the end of a nice drive down, it could be the bear MMs closing shorts, not opening longs, i.e., not yet bulls. And if the high volume occurs when price breaks below a whole number right out of price consolidation, that is most likely the MMs starting a drive down, building their shorts by doing a lot of selling, not longs doing a lot of buying.

The premise of PVSRA is that bulls prefer to build longs below whole SRs and bears prefer to build shorts above whole SRs. But it is also a part of PVSRA that not only must we see what is going on where the price IS, but also we need to consider where the price CAME FROM!

"no pvsra hokus pokus there" - hansma

That was totally uncalled for, Hansma.
  • #55,373
  • Edited 7:53pm Aug 4, 2013 7:40pm | Edited 7:53pm
Draw downs and how to limit them. I am just posting this to spawn ideas. I am posting a chart overlay of USD crosses. This will allow us to see that they all tend to move in the same direction. We all know the market moves in waves to steel trades positions. MM move the market until there are no more stops to reach easily. Then they move it the other direction collecting stops as they go. I am proposing an idea of using the USD crosses to hedge your positions. Such as if you buy one NU then sell one AU or use the AU and NU as long hedges since interest is earned while holding the position and use the EU and GU as short hedges. Again I am only trying to address the fear of large draw downs. You only close your positions when in profit on both a long and a short and keep the equation balanced. With this approach who cares where the market goes just a matter of money management.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: YEN Crosses Chart Overlay.jpg Size: 223 KB
  • #55,374
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:49pm Aug 4, 2013 7:49pm
Eur/Aud Price pushed back up to Friday Highs.
1.49250 Bearish activity above the quarter number, increase Volume....
Didn't Realize how fast this currency pair moves.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur aud 8 4.PNG Size: 127 KB
Creditors have better memories than debtors.
  • #55,375
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:49pm Aug 4, 2013 7:49pm
Quoting worldfreedom
Draw downs and how to limit them. I am just posting this to spawn ideas. I am posting a chart overlay of USD crosses. This will allow us to see that they all tend to move in the same direction. We all know the market moves in waves to steel trades positions. MM move the market until there are no more stops to reach easily. Then they move it the other direction collecting stops as they go. I am proposing an idea of using the USD crosses to hedge your positions. Such as if you buy one NU then sell one AU or use the AU and NU as long hedges since interest...

This is true, and a good point.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #55,376
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:33pm Aug 4, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting DmitryFX
{quote} Experiment with EurAud. I don't like current DD because of this trades - it's about 20%. My the main mistake was placing orders by every levels instead of place by signals. Below marked good entries - there were 4 good of them, maximum 6. Good lesson and good example. Hope current depo will be enough to prevent MC if price will continue to move to the north.... {image}
Good example DmitryFX. This tells it how important spacing your scouts is.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,377
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:35pm Aug 4, 2013 8:35pm
Quoting Islander
As mentioned earlier, I have also been busy extracing some of the more relevent posts from the three months starting on April 10th - the remainder will follow when time permits. I hope that these will help in some way to add to your own growing total of banked pips {image}
Thanks Islander! Now I have an easy to access all important posts!
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,378
  • Aug 4, 2013 8:47pm Aug 4, 2013 8:47pm
Quoting futurespeter
{quote} Huge trends without significant retracements are a problem which has to be discussed, you are not the only one who is scared about this. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...91#post6850891 And it would help a lot to understand the potential risk if we all report the floating drawdown the way tah does do it in his weekly statements. I will do this tomorrow for my open GBPUSD and EURUSD positions. Happy weekend.

Position update 04.08.2013:

GU short trade (9 elements) and EU short trade (11 elements) are in DD 1.400 pips.
  • #55,379
  • Aug 4, 2013 9:11pm Aug 4, 2013 9:11pm
AU: Priced has pushed another 50 pips down and now below half SR level 0.8850. You can see price pulled immediately up. Added EP2 long scout.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is the first pair I am experimenting with new spacing and entry. I've also included an H4 analysis on entry position (sniper setup).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,380
  • Aug 4, 2013 10:21pm Aug 4, 2013 10:21pm
Quoting hansma
{quote} Simple supply and demand trading at any of your yellow marked areas- no pvsra hokus pokus there- Not all volume breaking whole and half areas is reversing volume in an uptrend or vice versa for a downtrend. Never has never will be. As I have stipulated many times before, where does price bounce from ie a monthy,weekly,daily area etc then price will more often will want to meet any of those areas for a retest. It is in between those timeframes you will plant your pvsra seeds, Knowing where any of those areas are in any given timeframe. Not...
I will be able to made any conclusions as soon as experiment will be finished. For a while it is just my observation.
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
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