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  • #820,941
  • Aug 4, 2013 2:23pm Aug 4, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @ffleo: Like Warren Buffett said, Leverage is your enemy. (I'm paraphrasing) But he has Billions so its easy from him to say. But his point is extremely valid.
Mr. Buffet is a risk-averse guy. He is a rat. Can you beat a rat? A guy posted experience of Yale graduates on this. Rat did better.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #820,942
  • Aug 4, 2013 2:53pm Aug 4, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting Goodvalley
{quote} Hello HDA, I've read all your post since your first intervention here and I think you forgot to talk about the GBPUSD. The only thing I've found about it is at the time of the last FOMC, when you said: {quote} So may I ask you to ellaborate on that GBPUSD long to 1.5650? Thank you very much
@Goodvalley:

I will do the analysis for the GBP/USD - I'm going through all the available information now
  • #820,943
  • Aug 4, 2013 2:59pm Aug 4, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Goodvalley: I will do the analysis for the GBP/USD - I'm going through all the available information now

Great, thanks
Visit my Drumming & Percussion Blog - DrumsCult com
  • #820,944
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:01pm Aug 4, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Mr. Buffet is a risk-averse guy. He is a rat. Can you beat a rat? A guy posted experience of Yale graduates on this. Rat did better.


cant stand buffet fans
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #820,945
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:15pm Aug 4, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Agreed its a strong level. I was long from 8586 with a 5 pip stop loss (under 8582 lows). Man I should have held that longer. Not holding trades long enough = story of my life
Everything looks great in hindsight...I've resorted to scalping these days just because the longer term trades make me nervous and I end up losing a lot of trades that were originally profitable.
  • #820,946
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:17pm Aug 4, 2013 3:17pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Haha good answer this will avoid my system is better than yours BTW, my sell zone for OIL 108.8-110.0. 5 to 10 good trade per year is good enough for me.

Why do you guys permanently thing about peeing contest when a simple, well thought question is asked? Inquiring minds want to know......
  • #820,947
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:21pm Aug 4, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Haha good answer this will avoid my system is better than yours BTW, my sell zone for OIL 108.8-110.0. 5 to 10 good trade per year is good enough for me.

Yep, Oil looks promising for a short - but the easy part was shorting forelast week
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  • #820,948
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:35pm Aug 4, 2013 3:35pm
Quoting attila
{quote} On the funny side.. You know how when you meet someone, one of the first questions.. so.. what do you do? Answer: I am a speculator.. Blank stare... end of the "how long your dick is" discussion.. btw. I never ask this question.. I absolutely hate it, because I know is all about measuring dicks.

  • #820,949
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:40pm Aug 4, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} C'mon Infi. I will never say EW sucks because I don't understand it

Hahaha, in complex corrections it sucks big time - can show you some account statements
  • #820,950
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:49pm Aug 4, 2013 3:49pm
some major trade developments for kiwiland over weekend, possible big agp down, which could snowball, wether aussie follows is hard to say, but would definitely be wary of kiwi bears :nerd:
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #820,951
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:54pm Aug 4, 2013 3:54pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Well like everything else it works until it doesn't

My rule of thumb is:

when I get really very very very confident about some moves - it proofs to be wrong most of the time

same is, when the FF collective becomes too confident about the direction, it proofs most of the time to be wrong



But so far my core question is not answered:

"How relevant is a max. 500 billion FX option market in light of 4 trillion Spot Forex, Swaps and Forward market?"


I do not know the answer. Never pretend to have. That is the reason I am asking. Any educated guess is welcomed :-)
  • #820,952
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:55pm Aug 4, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting Ken A
NZD/USD and NZD/JPY slide more than -100 pips due to the comment of Economic Minister
could accelerate bro, is a huge fukup, most major trading partners already closing doors, going to hurt big time
long story, but still little hung over, guess we are going to find out shortly just how big it is I have still eyeball for 76c
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #820,953
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:57pm Aug 4, 2013 3:57pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} My rule of thumb is: when I get really very very very confident about some moves - it proofs to be wrong most of the time same is, when the FF collective becomes too confident about the direction, it proofs most of the time to be wrong But so far my core question is not answered: "How relevant is a max. 500 billion FX option market in light of 4 trillion Spot Forex, Swaps and Forward market?" I do not know the answer. Never pretend to have. That is the reason I am asking. Any educated guess is welcomed :-)
FX options I would argue is very important, for markets moves it tends to be a large amount of volume at a very localised time, there may be only 100 bil but if thats traded in the few mins around the expiration it can be very important.

Also the quant side derived from FX options is very important, just consider vol surfaces and it can tell you infinitly more than the CoT in terms of positioning.
  • #820,954
  • Edited 4:14pm Aug 4, 2013 3:57pm | Edited 4:14pm
Quoting Goodvalley
{quote} Great, thanks
@Goodvalley:

GBP/USD Options Expiry 10AM EASTERN for Monday, August 5, 2013

1.5175
1.5100

GBP/USD Options Expiry 10AM EASTERN for Tuesday, August 6, 2013

1.5300

GBP/USD Options Expiry 10AM EASTERN for Wednesday, August 7, 2013

1.5325
1.4980
1.4750 - US$850 million payout


What I am about to write is my analysis - it is not to be used to create a bias in your mind. Use the information as you see fit.

With That Said - Earlier I typed buy the GBP/USD to 1.5650 with all the information before me now my opinion is two fold. If I were trading the GBP/USD now and still in the trade I would EXIT. This is because of my style of trading as I explained before about exiting at the NEUTRAL ZONE - We are at the NEUTRAL ZONE.

At the NEUTRAL ZONE - one of two things happen - we turn around and head back down or we continue to the supply zone.

SUPPLY ZONE - 1.5660
NEUTRAL ZONE - 1.5300 - this is the area you get beat up as the market decides what its going to do
DEMAND ZONE - 1.4850

As a swing trader I would have bought at 1.4850 and exited at 1.5300 - now this is HIND SIGHT TRADING

I do not give analysis on the market after it has moved - This is disingenuous.

PRESENT DAY ANALYSIS GOING FORWARD

I would've already exited my trade and would be in the waiting mode now for it to turn or for it to continue to 1.5660.

Here is the situation that has me spooked and why I say I would've have been out of the trade and wait:

1. On Wednesday there is an US$850 million Options pay out at 1.4750 @INFINITUS - lets see how influential this option contract is, if it will bring down the GBP/USD or if CARNEY is the reason.


2. All the Options heading up to Wednesday, the highest is 1.5325 and the levels keep falling.

3. 90% of the time when the market turns at the NEUTRAL ZONE it takes out the low and the low being 1.4813 which is above the US$850 million Options pay out for Wednesday at 1.4750.

4. On that Same Wednesday CARNEY SPEAKS and also the BOE Inflation report.

5. If I had bought at the DEMAND ZONE in (hindsight - note: I do not trade the GBP/USD) and traded my plan as explained in terms of entry and exit, I would've made 450 pips plus the additional pips from exiting at resistance and re-entering at support in a two week and a few days time frame buying at 1.4850 and exiting at the NEUTRAL ZONE 1.5300. I am not that greedy to stay in so I would get out.

6. If it continued on to the SUPPLY ZONE - I would have been out of the trade just the same, waiting to sell at SUPPLY.

7. If It turns at the Neutral ZONE to head back down - I would first wait for confirmation to go short and ride it to the Options US$850 Million Dollar pay out level 1.4750.

8. But I do not like to enter trades in the NEUTRAL ZONE trying to catch the wave, because in that ZONE, anything can happen and that is where you get beat up the most.

9. It's stress free trading, to enter at DEMAND and sell at the NEUTRAL ZONE or enter at SUPPLY and buy at NEUTRAL ZONE

I hope that helps. So I would have been out waiting to enter at Supply or look for another setup on another currency pair.



See why I say this is stressful anaylsing and then putting it in simple form and then typing it.

NOW I'M TIRED.

  • #820,955
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:58pm Aug 4, 2013 3:58pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Try this one: http://mediafiretrending.net/get/759...t_profile.html sorry, was not able to upload it because of 10MB limitations do not forget to virus scan the download
thanks for the link
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,956
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:59pm Aug 4, 2013 3:59pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Might retrace too because this is only about milk and NZ market right now is very thin. I don't see it such a big issue over milk not some kind of political disaster.
http://www.dcanz.com/about-nz-dairy-...dairying-today
  • #820,957
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:01pm Aug 4, 2013 4:01pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Just a wild guess because those with big money never told me and they too split the orders into small pieces to hide their hands. When the momentum is right that 0.5 yard will be hit or avoided or protected

fair guess
  • #820,958
  • Edited 4:16pm Aug 4, 2013 4:02pm | Edited 4:16pm
the big banks sell options to collect premiums. players buy options to speculate. the big banks will protect all the levels until the options expire, so players wont profit. after expiration, the market just move wherever it wants to.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,959
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:03pm Aug 4, 2013 4:03pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} FX options I would argue is very important, for markets moves it tends to be a large amount of volume at a very localised time, there may be only 100 bil but if thats traded in the few mins around the expiration it can be very important. Also the quant side derived from FX options is very important, just consider vol surfaces and it can tell you infinitly more than the CoT in terms of positioning.

Very good argument, especially when the COT data is days old when we get it......
  • #820,960
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:09pm Aug 4, 2013 4:09pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} http://www.dcanz.com/about-nz-dairy-...dairying-today
Ok 26% of the country export can do some serious damage
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