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  • #820,801
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:36pm Aug 3, 2013 10:36pm
Quoting HDA
NOW If you were buying the AUD/USD and holding the trade, the borrowing rate is 2.35% and the lending rate is 0.5% and that works out to (US$4.51) that you would be making a day with 1 Standard Lot of 100,000 units. So every day you stay in the AUD/USD trade LONG, holding it you will EARN in SWAP (US$4.51)/day or (US$135.30)/month minus the one time spread charge to enter the trade.
Perhaps the swap is specifics to broker/bank?

Citi
Attached Image

Alpari
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  • #820,802
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:41pm Aug 3, 2013 10:41pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Perhaps the swap is specifics to broker/bank? Citi {image} Alpari {image}
WOW. that is quite a difference.

FFleo - When studying the COT reports you should only really be concerned with the large speculators (as described on your chart). They essentially move the market and the reports for the past few weeks have shown they have plateaud somewhat. Still net short but no longer adding to positions. The next stage is closing positions and even maybe reversing.
Money never sleeps...
  • #820,803
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:43pm Aug 3, 2013 10:43pm
Quoting inpatient
Always bear in mind that the COT report is based around the futures market
i also doubt the usefulness of COT report on currencies.
CME FX futures daily liquidity is about $105 billion. The FX spot is about 4 trillion now. The futures market is about 2.5% of the spot market.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,804
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:43pm Aug 3, 2013 10:43pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} WOW. that is quite a difference.
Yes, need to read the contract carefully some banks calculate the swap differently on daily basis. Just need to be careful might end up paying swap for holding long
  • #820,805
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:46pm Aug 3, 2013 10:46pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} I have around 8795-88 as bounce zone(reasons not shown as makes chart a mess) but 84270 as potential demand zone. Have to wait and see. {image}
@Mr. Scott:

You're using a weekly chart.

I tried using the monthly to derive the point, but it was still lagging - when a monthly lags you then have to look to the Yearly, but the YEARLY wasn't giving me as much info as I wanted so its a waiting game.



But i'm not selling the AUD/USD because i'm a Position trader, so I am only looking for the TRUE TURNING POINT DEMAND ZONE to go long and HOLD up to what I call the NEUTRAL ZONE which is half way before you get to the SUPPLY ZONE which I will also have to calculate from the YEARLY.

So its a waiting game - so I move on and currency shop for another pair to trade in the meantime.

See post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post6866419
  • #820,806
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:52pm Aug 3, 2013 10:52pm
HDA,

Would be interested in your opinion on EA?

I have it approaching the turning point and have started to build shorts and will do as (or if) it climbs to 1.525
Money never sleeps...
  • #820,807
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:52pm Aug 3, 2013 10:52pm
i posted aussie chart in the aussie thread this morning. the aussie might have a small bounce now. next bounce level will be 8760, below that the next bounce level will be 8600. if 8600 cannot stop it, it is heading to 8000.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-USD - Charts - 757354410TDA Main@thinkorswim [build 1844.9]_022.png Size: 223 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,808
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:55pm Aug 3, 2013 10:55pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Yes, need to read the contract carefully some banks calculate the swap differently on daily basis. Just need to be careful might end up paying swap for holding long
@KEN A:

You are absolutely correct. You have to read the contract and make very sure you understand everything.

  • #820,809
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:58pm Aug 3, 2013 10:58pm
Quoting inpatient
HDA, Would be interested in your opinion on EA? I have it approaching the turning point and have started to build shorts and will do as (or if) it climbs to 1.525
@inpatient:

Let me check - on sec I might be delayed in responding because I have to check everything, options expiry etc etc etc
  • #820,810
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:05pm Aug 3, 2013 11:05pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Mr. Scott: You're using a weekly chart. I tried using the monthly to derive the point, but it was still lagging - when a monthly lags you then have to look to the Yearly, but the YEARLY wasn't giving me as much info as I wanted so its a waiting game. But i'm not selling the AUD/USD because i'm a Position trader, so I am only looking for the TRUE TURNING POINT DEMAND ZONE to go long and HOLD up to what I call the NEUTRAL ZONE which is half way before you get to the SUPPLY ZONE which I will also have to calculate from the YEARLY. So its...

I understand and read you previous well written and informative post.

I only offer my plan as I see it. Seems a battle zone now, looking for reason to long or short and have none at the moment.

Scott
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #820,811
  • Edited 11:30pm Aug 3, 2013 11:14pm | Edited 11:30pm
aussie monthly for 20 years. i would ignore the spike caused by the 2008-2009 crash. there was another crash of the equity market around 2003. i do not think another crash is going to come soon in the us equity market, because it would be the second crash in Obama's term.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-USD - Charts - 757354410TDA Main@thinkorswim [build 1844.9]_023.png Size: 203 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,812
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:25pm Aug 3, 2013 11:25pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} EUR/GBP: There is an options barrier for Monday at 0.8700 so SELL the EUR/GBP with TWO targets in mind to 0.8550 and 0.8320 taking profit on the way down. Like I explained. However, wait to see what happens at 0.8550 area. IF it continues then target 0.8320.
I certainly agree with selling EG, however, there is a strong support @ 0.8580 so my first target = 0.8585
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #820,813
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:26pm Aug 3, 2013 11:26pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} I certainly agree with selling EG, however, there is a strong support @ 0.8580 so my target = 0.8585
And I am ucad long and EU short.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #820,814
  • Edited 11:51pm Aug 3, 2013 11:40pm | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting inpatient
HDA, Would be interested in your opinion on EA? I have it approaching the turning point and have started to build shorts and will do as (or if) it climbs to 1.525
@inpatient:

Sorry for the delay, had to go through everything to make an informed decision.

EUR/AUD Options Expiry for Monday, August 5, 2013

1.4275 - That's It

I had to use a Quarterly because the Monthly was lagging to ascertain the Supply and Neutral Zone -

SUPPLY ZONE - 1.900
NEUTRAL ZONE - 1.550
DEMAND ZONE - 1.020

So if I was long this pair - I would be looking to exit my long at 1.550 or before to be on the safe side and then WAIT to see if it will be a turning point or if it will continue to go on to the SUPPLY ZONE.

If it turns - I would trade it to the DEMAND ZONE - 1.020 but exit at 1.050


But I would be looking to get out - because we are now approaching DUMB MONEY area according to the BANKS.

This is where traders will get beat up badly.
  • #820,815
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:41pm Aug 3, 2013 11:41pm
Quoting ffleo
aussie monthly for 20 years. i would ignore the spike caused by the 2008-2009 crash. there was another crash of the equity market around 2003. i do not think another crash is going to come soon in the us equity market, because it would be the second crash in Obama's term. {image}
very good point about Obama, they wouldn't want that. also sp500 market is still undervalued in comparison to the FEDs balance sheet.

im buying volatility though. and if we reach 1900 sp500 ill buy more volatility. (VIX)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #820,816
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:42pm Aug 3, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} I understand and read you previous well written and informative post. I only offer my plan as I see it. Seems a battle zone now, looking for reason to long or short and have none at the moment. Scott
@Mr. Scott:

Understood and thank you
  • #820,817
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:43pm Aug 3, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @inpatient: Sorry for the delay, had to go through everything to give you an informed decision. EUR/AUD Options Expiry for Monday, August 5, 2013 1.4275 - That's It I had to use a Quarterly because the Monthly was lagging to ascertain the Supply and Neutral Zone - SUPPLY ZONE - 1.900 NEUTRAL ZONE - 1.550 So if I was long this pair - I would be looking to get exit my long at 1.550 or before to be on the safe side and then WAIT to see if it will be a turning point or if it will continue to go on to the SUPPLY ZONE. But I would be looking to...
The markets preferred way to trade it is to the downside (carry interest and primary trend is down) So they wouldn't mind a correction at all.

I remember last year when we were at 1.16... and people talking about a huge unwinding of that 5 year carry trade.

Well, it happened. And if i were a better trader back then I probably would have longed...


Literally though that 5 year carry trade was probably the best trade ever possible to take in FX (in a major currency cross anyway, non exotics). An additional 2000 pips from the carry on a 9500 pip move.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #820,818
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:49pm Aug 3, 2013 11:49pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} The markets preferred way to trade it is to the downside (carry interest and primary trend is down) So they wouldn't mind a correction at all. I remember last year when we were at 1.16... and people talking about a huge unwinding of that 5 year carry trade. Well, it happened. And if i were a better trader back then I probably would have longed... Literally though that 5 year carry trade was probably the best trade ever possible to take in FX. An additional 2000 pips from the carry on a 9500 pip move.

tell me about it, 2300 pips since early march going long on EA...

And I got just 80 of them

Hoping to get 1000 though on the way back down....
Money never sleeps...
  • #820,819
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:53pm Aug 3, 2013 11:53pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} very good point about Obama, they wouldn't want that. also sp500 market is still undervalued in comparison to the FEDs balance sheet. im buying volatility though. and if we reach 1900 sp500 ill buy more volatility. (VIX)

Now that is smart, if I remember correctly the only time Vix has been this low is back in 07?
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #820,820
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:54pm Aug 3, 2013 11:54pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} The markets preferred way to trade it is to the downside (carry interest and primary trend is down) So they wouldn't mind a correction at all. I remember last year when we were at 1.16... and people talking about a huge unwinding of that 5 year carry trade. Well, it happened. And if i were a better trader back then I probably would have longed... Literally though that 5 year carry trade was probably the best trade ever possible to take in FX (in a major currency cross anyway, non exotics). An additional 2000 pips from the carry on a 9500...
@Rag2RichesFX:

I left off the DEMAND ZONE , but added it above in the EUR/AUD post to inpatient
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