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  • #820,781
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:08pm Aug 3, 2013 9:08pm
Quoting Venice
{quote} Yep mate. It is just a bounce point... not a turning point. I actually posted up the true [potential] turning point and bottom, derived from the monthly chart. But you know, we are currently making a LL on the daily. The next piece that is formed... is the next LH in supply Here is my monthly mumbo jumbo: {quote}
@Venice:

I wish I had the info to properly cross check your info

I tried using the monthly to derive the point, but it was still lagging - when a monthly lags you then have to look to the Yearly, but the YEARLY wasn't giving me as much info as I wanted so its a waiting game. To jump in now is in the battle zone and one could get easily beat up and I like to win my fights

Happy Trading

OMG!! - you thought about the SWAP too in your post - Great minds think alike
  • #820,782
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:18pm Aug 3, 2013 9:18pm
What people seem to forget, is there is still a whole lot of downside potential. Just look at the weekly- it's fairly obvious. I'm short on AUD until forever. Short after every bounce into supply zone. It's worked since March.
  • #820,783
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:19pm Aug 3, 2013 9:19pm
(AUD I mean)
  • #820,784
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:25pm Aug 3, 2013 9:25pm
Quoting Pharm0r
What people seem to forget, is there is still a whole lot of downside potential. Just look at the weekly- it's fairly obvious. I'm short on AUD until forever. Short after every bounce into supply zone. It's worked since March.
@Pharm0r:

You will be paying a lot in swap to stay in that trade short, but from a cost benefit analysis stand point, it's worth the expense.

  • #820,785
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:28pm Aug 3, 2013 9:28pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Pharm0r: You will be paying a lot in swap to stay in that trade short, but from a cost benefit analysis stand point its worth the expense.
In the Grand scheme of things too... 1.5 pips a day is about what it averages out too right now, doesn't it? So... paying about 45 pips a month. If your holding for a month... you should be targeting well into the several hundred pip target area.

But Yes. I don't like to see that little negative balance increase each day so 'drastically'. LOL.
  • #820,786
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:56pm Aug 3, 2013 9:56pm
Quoting Venice
{quote} In the Grand scheme of things too... 1.5 pips a day is about what it averages out too right now, doesn't it? So... paying about 45 pips a month. If your holding for a month... you should be targeting well into the several hundred pip target area. But Yes. I don't like to see that little negative balance increase each day so 'drastically'. LOL.
@Venice:

AUD/USD: The lending Rate selling is 3.35% and the borrowing rate is 0.1% and this works out to (-US$7.92) a day you are paying to stay in the trade short with 1 standard Lot of 100,000 units which is $10.00/pip

So every day you stay in the AUD/USD trade SHORT, holding it you will pay in SWAP (-US$7.92)/day or (-US$237.60)/month plus the one time spread charge to enter the trade.

NOW

If you were buying the AUD/USD and holding the trade, the borrowing rate is 2.35% and the lending rate is 0.5% and that works out to (US$4.51) that you would be making a day with 1 Standard Lot of 100,000 units.

So every day you stay in the AUD/USD trade LONG, holding it you will EARN in SWAP (US$4.51)/day or (US$135.30)/month minus the one time spread charge to enter the trade.
  • #820,787
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:05pm Aug 3, 2013 10:05pm
Quoting Venice
{quote} In the Grand scheme of things too... 1.5 pips a day is about what it averages out too right now, doesn't it? So... paying about 45 pips a month. If your holding for a month... you should be targeting well into the several hundred pip target area. But Yes. I don't like to see that little negative balance increase each day so 'drastically'. LOL.
is the swap calculated from the interest rate difference in AUD and USD?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,788
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:07pm Aug 3, 2013 10:07pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} is the swap calculated from the interest rate difference in AUD and USD?
yes
Money never sleeps...
  • #820,789
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:09pm Aug 3, 2013 10:09pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} yes
thanks
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,790
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:10pm Aug 3, 2013 10:10pm
this positive swap is attractive for very long term traders ready to hold for as long as needed until we see maybe parity again.

Just need an account that can handle any drawdown no matter what.

Far better interest than any savings account when factoring in the leverage
Money never sleeps...
  • #820,791
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:11pm Aug 3, 2013 10:11pm
then swap should not be a concern cause it is less than 3 % per year
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,792
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:13pm Aug 3, 2013 10:13pm
Quoting inpatient
this positive swap is attractive for very long term traders ready to hold for as long as needed until we see maybe parity again. Just need an account that can handle any drawdown no matter what. Far better interest than any savings account when factoring in the leverage
use low leverage, it is indeed attractive for long terms better than savings else in the world
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,793
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:14pm Aug 3, 2013 10:14pm
aussie dollar longs have the highest positive swap available right now which is what gives the huge advantage to hedge funds wishing to sit on their hands with huge amounts. Far better to buy Aussie denominated assets since they will appreciate year over year at a decent rate in comparison to US dollars.

If I had a couple of billion right now that is where I would be looking. The further the Aussie drops the more attractive this looks.

Hasn't happened yet but at some point I would expect the Aussie to recover quite quickly. Just waiting for central banks to flip the switch.
Money never sleeps...
  • #820,794
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:14pm Aug 3, 2013 10:14pm
Quoting inpatient
this positive swap is attractive for very long term traders ready to hold for as long as needed until we see maybe parity again. Just need an account that can handle any drawdown no matter what. Far better interest than any savings account when factoring in the leverage
@inpatient:

Correct and this is why finding that DEMAND ZONE, the TRUE TURNING POINT is critical to try and avoid the draw down



And I was saying to Venice that I still don't have enough info to pin point the DEMAND ZONE yet on the AUD/USD to go LONG
  • #820,795
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:18pm Aug 3, 2013 10:18pm
Quoting ffleo
then swap should not be a concern cause it is less than 3 % per year
this is true but it is 3% of the entire amount including leverage from your broker.

1 lot for me is 100k gbp. 2.5% of this is 2500 gbp annually.

place 10 lots and that is now 25k annually.

100 lots 250k gbp
Money never sleeps...
  • #820,796
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:24pm Aug 3, 2013 10:24pm
i wonder why commercials hold the most of aussie longs right now.

cot chart below,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 23.png Size: 51 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,797
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:27pm Aug 3, 2013 10:27pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} And I was saying to Venice that I still don't have enough info to pin point the DEMAND ZONE yet on the AUD/USD to go LONG

Hello HDA,

Yes it is a difficult one. I actually prefer right now that we are within range to start to call the top on Euro Aussie as we get to the 1.5 whole number.

Almost as good on the swap and fundamentals and outlook for the Euro for me is less solid. German elections and a few other factors could come into play to make from now to year end a tough run for the Euro. Coincide this with a return of central bank interest in the higher yielding Aussie and we could see quite a trade back down 1000 pips plus from where we are now.

50% of the long term range on EA is 1.525 area and im not even sure we will see that.
Money never sleeps...
  • #820,798
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:27pm Aug 3, 2013 10:27pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @inpatient: Correct and this is why finding that DEMAND ZONE, the TRUE TURNING POINT is critical to try and avoid the draw down And I was saying to Venice that I still don't have enough info to pin point the DEMAND ZONE yet on the AUD/USD to go LONG

I have around 8795-88 as bounce zone(reasons not shown as makes chart a mess) but 84270 as potential demand zone. Have to wait and see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdweekly83.jpg Size: 221 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #820,799
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:30pm Aug 3, 2013 10:30pm
Quoting ffleo
i wonder why commercials hold the most of aussie longs right now. cot chart below, {image}

Commercials hedge in futures and it always shows on the reports as if they go against the trend
Money never sleeps...
  • #820,800
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:32pm Aug 3, 2013 10:32pm
Always bear in mind that the COT report is based around the futures market
Money never sleeps...
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