Sonicers, If anyone has an EA for the purpose of closing all trades at once for a single pair, please post it. -tah
(***Current refers to the current open chart only.)
- #55,323
- Aug 3, 2013 3:27pm Aug 3, 2013 3:27pm
Hello boys and girls! I'm back from vacation! How have you been Professor? I've been great! I have got my family's new house ready and everything is just great! Eager to get my hands on trading again, starting with microlots after two months of break. Have to get hang of this again, before I get heavily back to business. I see I still have my touch left with PVSRALong EU and Long GU today earlier based on PVSRA. (WITH SL under swing low, because I'm unsure about my analysis after such a long break) {image} {image}
Good to see you back!
{quote} maybe you right with the 1M chart But in the 15M chart looked like that the MM charge shorts' I marked thos areas you can see it also in 1H charts for me I will continue to hold shorts till I see it more clearly in highr time frame {image}
There is no spoon....
- #55,325
- Aug 3, 2013 3:40pm Aug 3, 2013 3:40pm
So after a week mostly away from my screens whilst waiting for the BOE, ECB and Helicopter Ben aka FOMC, I attach another Word document adding to my previous one. Regretably, despite attemping to load an English version of the PrimoPDF program, it still insists in remaining in Spanish and thus my attempts at converting to a PDF format result in a blanc page and I refuse to suffer more frustration.......y no soy un Ingles que no habla Castillano pero las palabras technicas y mis limitaciones augmentan mi dolor de cabaza The two charts mentioned will...
You have really gone that extra yard in producing the latest draft. Sincerely appreciated as are the efforts from all the other guys such as tah in helping to educate us guys.
{quote} look at the yellow areas they take it up and down as TAH name it pump and dump {image} {image}
I'll use your chart as an example. Consider the MM's are Bull. Then they are building long, pushing prices down and down over time. Their run for profit at some point is UP. When a candle breaks and closes BELOW a SR level, everybody jumps in selling short (and trading with the trend, what everyone preaches). At that moment, if everyone jumps in, price should jump off a cliff into the abyss. But it doens't. In fact, there's always a retrace --> and indication of heavy buying (guess who... the MM's). And it'll go up, looking like a reversal Bull action in lower time frame. Everyone's RSI and Stochastic indicators will be screaming reversal! So a group of people are expecting a reversal so they jump in to buy long and set their stops below the previous low (slightly below the SR you will find from the last spike down, b/c we all love placing stops as close as possible for the best risk to reward ratio). As more and more buy, and having the flow order as well as where and how many stops exist, they at some point will spike the price further down to do two things... 1. Take out those stops and 2. Obtain more buy orders. Marvelous right? Absolutely genius. And guess where their next target will be? The next SR levels below. So you, as a trader can do two things. You can build with them... or you can build counter them. But know that when profit release happens, it is fast and substantial. So building counter them late in the game is... extremely risky. In fact, counter strategies should aim to start your positions early, right when they start building, to take advantage of their long runs. On the other hand, if we want to build with them, ideally, we want to enter near their late game building b/c it gives us the best lowest price.
Here is my analysis of your chart. I hope this helps.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
{quote} Good post, qFish. Thank you. {quote} {quote} Are we really interpreting PVSRA correct? I ask because in uptrends the PVSRA indicates that the MM's are most of the time bears and in downtrends PVSRA indicates that the MM's are most of the time bulls. And this stands also for huge up- and downtrends which conflicts with my understanding. Do the MM's really build huge positions over thousands of pips and long time (many month or longer) against the trend (trade what you see)? Where is the Run for Profits? For example the longterm weekly EURAUD...
Thank you. You bring up a very good point. In a previous post, I analyzed AU pair on the H4 in search where PVSRA could have problems. Although on the H4, it may seem like there are places where prices run 200-300 pips without a retrace. With 20 scouts and considering average positions of the trade to be in the middle, you would be down about 200 x 20 or 4000 pips. In my last GJ trade, I had 18 open positions and max DD was actually very close to this level. Depends on your spacing. 20 scouts over 300 pips is about 15 pip spacing.
This made me think about when to enter using PVSRA. And how we should space our scouts.
Of course, we have to assume that we have just gotten out of a previous run for profits. So that 400 pip run that we see, at least half of that we were in a previous trade waiting for out TP. So by around 200 pips down, we are out of the trade. A run for profit can be seen as a building phase also. So this is when I thought to myself, if I have not been in the trade, then where will I be if I were. I'd be getting out of a run for profit. So this already tells me that the end of the profit run has to be at the very least, beyond the last average price. Consolidation price action is also a good sign. Don't start building after a run where it jumps off a cliff or shoots to the roof. Wait for the consolidation. Which is a good place to take profit from a previous trade.
Here's some visuals b/c it's so much easier to digest.
Planning for spacing too. Wide spacing at first and tighter as we progress further. Ultimately better average price.
Good entry and exit then requires good planning and... can become an art form. These are just a few floating ideas that I am trying to implement as we move further.
Long runs are hard to handle. And we must also define our biggest DD. Then plan our scouts so that we can handle large DD as they happen. And even stop adding scouts and wait... in which we hit our DD threshold, we get out with a loss, or... we add scouts as price reverses... now at the bottom. We can drive it up and at least limit our losses, and if we are fortunate, maybe BE or even become a winning trade :-)
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
