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  • #5,381
  • Aug 1, 2013 11:05am Aug 1, 2013 11:05am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Hi Balhana, I've been a silent observer of your trades for some time and have been really impressed at the high degree of accuracy and precise timing of your trades. If you don't mind could I start asking you questions as there are so many of your trades which I can't really understand and I feel there is a lot I can learn from you. Regarding your AU trade, I'm guessing you're trading it as a bearish engulfing bar in the zone with compression leading up to it. However, the bar was not closed yet and it could have closed higher up and thus...
Take a look at the chart below. Hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,382
  • Aug 1, 2013 11:14am Aug 1, 2013 11:14am
Would anyone consider this for an FTB? The H1 picture shows a supply zone with concise DP and strong BO. Not as much substance as would like perhaps. M15 however does not look so good. There was no pause (at least on this t/f) at the DP although there was an immediate retest to confirm the zone. I would certainly expect a reaction at this area as it was a clear area of fresh selling, but I'm sure you guys can help me add some layers to this?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 1.8.13_AUDUSD_M15.png Size: 51 KB
  • #5,383
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:22pm Aug 1, 2013 12:22pm
Sold GA and closed 2/3 for +100 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,384
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:35pm Aug 1, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting Balhana
Sold GA and closed 2/3 for +100 pips. {image}
Closed the remainder for +60 pips. (+160 pips in total). Very tired and sleepy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,385
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:22pm Aug 1, 2013 10:22pm
Quoting Balhana
Sold GA and closed 2/3 for +100 pips. {image}
Hi Balhana,

First of all big thank you for the informative chart to explain your AU short, it makes sense now and you showed me so many things on the chart which I did not see before.

Could I ask some more questions on your GA trade? My questions are on the image below.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: questions.png Size: 43 KB


Good trade!
  • #5,386
  • Edited Aug 2, 2013 12:01am Aug 1, 2013 11:41pm | Edited Aug 2, 2013 12:01am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Hi Balhana, First of all big thank you for the informative chart to explain your AU short, it makes sense now and you showed me so many things on the chart which I did not see before. Could I ask some more questions on your GA trade? My questions are on the image below. {image} Good trade!
Have no rigid criteria for DC. Just try to analyze the chart based on all the factors that I know/can spot, but actually need to take a risk in the end. Have a look at the charts.

By the way, will you ask me questions like this if I don't explain the details when posting my trades?
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  • #5,387
  • Aug 2, 2013 1:15am Aug 2, 2013 1:15am
Quoting Balhana
{quote} Have no rigid criteria for DC. Just try to analyze the chart based on all the factors that I know/can spot, but actually need to take a risk in the end.
A great statement for people to think about IMO.

Too many people approach Price Action trading by looking for rules / rigid criteria involving bar and price patterns.

If you want to be one of the many mechanical pattern traders out there then that's 'fine'.

But if you want to be a true PA trader i.e. someone who can analyse price, the information present to them and act accordingly then you most likely need to change the way you approach PA trading.

The difference in the type of results that can be achieved between each approach should be clear.
  • #5,388
  • Aug 2, 2013 1:32am Aug 2, 2013 1:32am
Quoting whenwilljack
Would anyone consider this for an FTB? The H1 picture shows a supply zone with concise DP and strong BO. Not as much substance as would like perhaps. M15 however does not look so good. There was no pause (at least on this t/f) at the DP although there was an immediate retest to confirm the zone. I would certainly expect a reaction at this area as it was a clear area of fresh selling, but I'm sure you guys can help me add some layers to this? {image} {image}
It's not one that I would have on my setup list.

There is not enough substance to that H1 Zone, I don't like zones that are are formed of only 2-3 bars i.e. have that down-up-down then breakout look to them. Unless they have some previous SR history to go with it.

Id zoom in to see if there is any clear SR on the lower TF i.e it might be a lower TF setup etc, but there just isn't anything there that stands out as a clear area where price had a breakout off and the associated change in momentum.

BTW the Q&A section on my Forum is the best place to ask FTB related questions.
http://www.thetradersguild.co.uk/wp/forum/
  • #5,389
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:43am Aug 2, 2013 2:43am
Quoting Balhana
{quote} Have no rigid criteria for DC. Just try to analyze the chart based on all the factors that I know/can spot, but actually need to take a risk in the end. Have a look at the charts. By the way, will you ask me questions like this if I don't explain the details when posting my trades? {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hi Balhana, thanks once again for that detailed analysis, really quite stunned at the amount of multi timeframe analysis you put into the trade. Again there were so many things that I did not even see. Really apologize if you were pestered by my questions, your charts in fact already contain good reasons for your trades, guess I couldn't help asking because I couldn't seem to find answers for those questions despite going through the various time frames, and there seems to be so much I can learn from experienced traders like yourself.

I'm kinda at the stage where I see so many trades of others where there'll be observations that'll concern me and keep me away from the trade, but they'll consistently be right which means there are definitely things that I'm not seeing or understanding. I often wish I could peek into their minds and understand what they were thinking when they took those trades, which is what prompted me to ask those questions. Really appreciate your detailed effort to answer my questions, it is a good insight to how you go about studying your charts. Will work harder on my chart reading and refrain from taxing you with my questions

Lovejoy: Thanks for your wise words, it really sinks in and ya, I got to be careful not to go down the mechanical route. You know I was watching one of your videos and you mentioned that there was a point in your life where you felt you know most of the concepts but somehow was still unable to be consistently profitable. I guess that is the stage that I'm in now, and I must admit a large part of it is trying to make sense of all the concepts and decide on the kind of "setups" that I want to focus on. Not sure if anyone else has been through this rut, but the different ways to trade S/D zones can be pretty daunting and confusing at the start. We have Sam Seiden's pure touch trades as long as a zone fulfills odds enhancers, PIE's price bar patterns (whipsaw engulfing, pins etc) at zones, ReadTheMarket's trading the origin of an engulf etc. They all work and I'm still trying to find what suits me best. I have an account purely for FTB setups to keep myself disciplined and convinced of its profit potential, and am planning on setting another one up to practice more in depth reading of price action. You guys are an inspiration and I'll continue to work hard to hone this craft!
  • #5,390
  • Aug 2, 2013 4:35am Aug 2, 2013 4:35am
Could someone explain to me what being capped means? I cant grip this concept.
Thoughts are things
  • #5,391
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:17am Aug 2, 2013 6:17am
Sold EU and closed 3/3 for +45 pips. No position before NFP.
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  • #5,392
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:58am Aug 2, 2013 6:58am
Quoting Quezoy
Could someone explain to me what being capped means? I cant grip this concept.
Hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,393
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:23am Aug 2, 2013 8:23am
Hi Balhana,
Been looking at your past posts and man you have been doing well! Thanks for sharing and annotating the charts, keep it coming!
On that note, i was wondering what software you were using to annotate the charts. Looking to do this myself but only found cumbersome means so far.

Thanks,

Neil.
Progress, not perfection
  • #5,394
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:06am Aug 2, 2013 10:06am
Quoting FX_Neil
Hi Balhana, Been looking at your past posts and man you have been doing well! Thanks for sharing and annotating the charts, keep it coming! On that note, i was wondering what software you were using to annotate the charts. Looking to do this myself but only found cumbersome means so far. Thanks, Neil.
I use "PicPick". Check this out.
  • #5,395
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:49am Aug 2, 2013 10:49am
Sold EN. Not looking good at the moment.
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  • #5,396
  • Aug 2, 2013 11:27am Aug 2, 2013 11:27am
Quoting Balhana
Sold EN. Not looking good at the moment. {image} {image}
Close 3/3 for +120 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,397
  • Aug 2, 2013 12:37pm Aug 2, 2013 12:37pm
My last trade this week. Usually use 1M chart after NFP.

Sold EU and closed 3/3 for +30 pips.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,398
  • Aug 3, 2013 4:55am Aug 3, 2013 4:55am
Quoting Quezoy
Could someone explain to me what being capped means? I cant grip this concept.
The actual definition of a Supply/Demand Cap is actually pretty simple, it's spotting when an SD zone will cap price which is the harder part.

The way I look at SD Caps is they are SD zones that I expect to hold on a retest in order for the one side of the market to remain in 'control'.

I'm not going to go into a lot of detail here but you need to think about what suggests one side of the market is in temporary control. Once you can establish this you can then establish where the SD Cap is located.

Take my trade on Bund CFD I took last week (screenshots are from twitter hence the lower quality), strong consumption of demand after strong rejection from a HTF SR thus I expect this consumed demand to hold as supply and the thus this is the 'supply cap' in that I expect this to hold if this momentum move is to continue.

I've also uploaded another generic example: FTB rejection resulting in a 2 bar liquidity spike reversal and strong consumption of the demand that caused the initial spike into the higher supply (by strong consumption I mean price consumed the demand without any material reaction...confirms the selling over buying strength), thus I now expect this former demand to be a supply cap as long as sellers remain in control.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
  • #5,399
  • Aug 3, 2013 6:59am Aug 3, 2013 6:59am
Hm... so a cap is basicly a SD flip zone?
Isnt this the same as the spike base principle?
Thoughts are things
  • #5,400
  • Aug 3, 2013 7:05am Aug 3, 2013 7:05am
Quote
Hm... so a cap is basicly a SD flip zone?


Er no! Read my post again...

Quote
Isnt this the same as the spike base principle?

I have no idea what this is so cannot comment.
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