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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,441
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:12pm Aug 1, 2013 8:12pm
Quoting Toranaga
Im lazy to go back and search for some posts, from 10+ Vouchers and similar people predicting 109 aso.. without giving a time frame.. Of course all is possible, and one day we will meet some martians by sure, but at the moment we are still fighting with 100, again.. IMO opinion, that was misleading and negligent, especially for newbies.. Wanted to state that. Folks, dont believe anything you read here. Or think twice (at least) about..
i think the consensus at the moment is that .uj will shoot for 104 pretty quickly. the 600 - 800 pip filips have been occurring on a 5 week cycle and we're due for another one now. the upmoves have occurred over ~2 week time frames. i don't know who predicted 109, but i can say there is no consensus around that.

i do know that .uj has a long track record of just going and going and going in one direction when it adopts stair-stepping mode... one level after another that does not get retraced -- that is something you can believe and that is what it's doing now. imo, it's very likely that any pullback will turn out to be nothing more than a come-on for bears (a bear trap)

so. ya wanna go short? get ready for some serious unhappiness.
  • #35,442
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:15pm Aug 1, 2013 8:15pm
just wait and clear till any confirmed PA to do something...

Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} i think the consensus at the moment is that .uj will shoot for 104 pretty quickly. the 600 - 800 pip filips have been occurring on a 5 week cycle and we're due for another one now. the upmoves have occurred over ~2 week time frames. i don't know who predicted 109, but i can say there is no consensus around that. i do know that .uj has a long track record of just going and going and going in one direction when it adopts stair-stepping mode... one level after another that does not get retraced -- that is something you can believe and that...
not euphoria follower
  • #35,443
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:28pm Aug 1, 2013 8:28pm
Quoting iqyu5an
just wait and clear till any confirmed PA to do something... {quote}
by PA, i assume you're referring to the downtrend line from 5/22 or various other tl and fib systems?
  • #35,444
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:37pm Aug 1, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} i think the consensus at the moment is that .uj will shoot for 104 pretty quickly. the 600 - 800 pip filips have been occurring on a 5 week cycle and we're due for another one now. the upmoves have occurred over ~2 week time frames. i don't know who predicted 109, but i can say there is no consensus around that. i do know that .uj has a long track record of just going and going and going in one direction when it adopts stair-stepping mode... one level after another that does not get retraced -- that is something you can believe and that...

Thanks for the answer. Appreciate it.

I dont care it it will go to 109 or to 89

I trade the momentum.. Even on D1



So or so, we are smal fishes, who can only follow..

And think we are the rulers..

It is like it it..
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #35,445
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:49pm Aug 1, 2013 8:49pm
Guys do take note, positive NFP data will eventually suggest the Fed tapering QE by end of year. Which means bullish for USD
  • #35,446
  • Aug 2, 2013 12:10am Aug 2, 2013 12:10am
Quoting booze007
we are in retrace zone . 99.52 (61.8 ) to 99 .83 (73) . i think the possiblty is high we will head back down for sometime now and back with nfp .

50 pip drop may be on the cards now .
  • #35,447
  • Aug 2, 2013 1:20am Aug 2, 2013 1:20am
Whatever reason may be, hope 99.00 holds before NFP.
  • #35,448
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:59am Aug 2, 2013 2:59am
Quoting apfrezza
{quote} Nice...But which should be a reasonable TP now? Also, what about a SL? Reading on various forums on the internet it seems that UJ could reach 110 but I would also be glad if we could touch 104... I decided however that when Hull MA at 4 hr will give me a sign to sell I'll do it!
Nothing is simple. Many times you will set SL and TP and then later wish you had placed these in different places. Accept the consequences at the time you place the limits. There will always be another opportunity. SL will protect your profit after a significant move in your favour.

Choice of TP? The same vague rules apply. UJ is currently moving in a flag on the 4hr chart. There is also a down trendline from 22nd May which has not yet broken. If you believe the flag boundary will not be broken then something around 99.90 is a good number for TP. If you believe the flag boundary will be broken then the next nearest likely levels are 100.50, 101 and 101.50; Any of those numbers could turn out to be solid resistance, however like all limits they are not unbreakable. To find the reason why some people have talked about 110 and 125 you must look back on a monthly chart to see where the support and resistance levels happened, back to 2008 somewhere - I do not have it on my trading platform.

I do not intend to be patronising, so I hope that helps.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,449
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:00am Aug 2, 2013 5:00am
this would be a reasonable TP but with recent positive data from the US
and if the upcoming data from US turn's positive it can easily break that trend line

My TP is placed before the downtrend
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  • #35,450
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:12am Aug 2, 2013 5:12am
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the...2013/08/02/02/
  • #35,451
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:43am Aug 2, 2013 5:43am
Please lets me know the price can up to 102 or not. can the price lower ?
  • #35,452
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:31am Aug 2, 2013 6:31am
Quoting ducpv
Please lets me know the price can up to 102 or not. can the price lower ?
if uptrend keeps up 100 today is very likely and if US news has good numbers maybe upto 100.4
  • #35,453
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:37am Aug 2, 2013 6:37am
Based from the numbers in this article: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=440408

I got my SL set at 99.25 (Average of 98.00 low and 100.50 high). If bad news from NFP i am guaranteed +145pips from my open long positions 3 days ago.

If good news from NFP, I'll keep trailing/re-adjusting my SL all the way to 112 baby.
  • #35,454
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:23am Aug 2, 2013 7:23am
Quoting Lucky_FX
Based from the numbers in this article: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=440408 I got my SL set at 99.25 (Average of 98.00 low and 100.50 high). If bad news from NFP i am guaranteed +145pips from my open long positions 3 days ago. If good news from NFP, I'll keep trailing/re-adjusting my SL all the way to 112 baby.
two most obvious poss's: we go careening past 100 to 100.43 or 100.60 ...or nfp is really good and we hit the high from jul @191.50 in one shot. i'm on the edge of my seat!
  • #35,455
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:31am Aug 2, 2013 7:31am
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

+145pips nevertheless using my SL strategy
  • #35,456
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:33am Aug 2, 2013 7:33am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} two most obvious poss's: we go careening past 100 to 100.43 or 100.60 ...or nfp is really good and we hit the high from jul @191.50 in one shot. i'm on the edge of my seat!
okay... got that one wrong. my guess now is that it will still DRIFT past 100, not careen

adding to long on pullback.
  • #35,457
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:37am Aug 2, 2013 7:37am
Hm, I'm not sure, but Unemployment Rate is good even NFP is bad, so it's a mixed result today. We have wait few minutes / hours and let the dust to settle down and to see how the result is accepted by the market... What do you think?
Don't touch, just look...
  • #35,458
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:43am Aug 2, 2013 7:43am
adding to long just above daily pivot (98.92)
  • #35,459
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:47am Aug 2, 2013 7:47am
Quoting 1candlepower
adding to long just above daily pivot (98.92)
Now it depends the news from Japan, with Abe in the throne, will he continue QE?

I am with you, but I haven't entered long. Will enter on monday when dust settles..
  • #35,460
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:50am Aug 2, 2013 7:50am
Quoting Lucky_FX
{quote} Now it depends the news from Japan, with Abe in the throne, will he continue QE? I am with you, but I haven't entered long. Will enter on monday when dust settles..
...hoping to get my instant 100p loss back in a few minutes here (i'm still well in the green though no matter what)
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