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Sonic R. System

  • #55,181
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:22am Aug 2, 2013 5:22am
Quoting loeil
{quote} Totally agree with you. Look how the volume was raising when the price went higher. Seems more bearish than bullish for me too. {image}
You have me also loeil. I've re-looked at it. London open has pushed me into nice profits now since my last analysis. Here's an update.

I was going to ride this out, but have decided to close with nice profits. The mixed signals is a little disconcerting. I still have EU open however as this pair is still in accumulation. GJ may have finally run out of steam.

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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,182
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:33am Aug 2, 2013 5:33am
  •  St3ve
  • | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Recovering from losses ... | 77 Posts
Quoting Tymedu
Hard decidision...
Absolutely! I'll rely on my PVSRA and stay through it. There is also another pair which concerns me ...
If I do the analysis wrong, please correct me!

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Look at the volume increase while price increases during asian session. First sign of bears.
Price drops during frankies hour .. not followed by high volume. Second sign of bears.
After london open they pushed price above quarter number with increased volume at the highs. Third sign of bears.

This was enough evidence to close 30% of my position. I will continue to keep the rest until after NFP release.
  • #55,183
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:35am Aug 2, 2013 5:35am
Really great work here.

Just starting to understand PVSRA. This is my first post regarding PVSRA, so please give me some feedback about my thoughts.

PA of USDCHF was pushed through the quarter number with very high volumes just above. Indicating MM's are bears?
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  • #55,184
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:46am Aug 2, 2013 5:46am
GJ Closed:

Total pips gained: 1713.7 pips
Total trades: 18
Lots per trade: 0.01
Pips/trade: 95.2 pips/trade
Percent of original account increase: 5.88%

Wow. Thank you Tah and all! Best 0.01 lot trade return ever.

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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,185
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:48am Aug 2, 2013 5:48am
Now it's NFP vs. My EU pair. And soooo many bullets to spend ^.^ I'm ready.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,186
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:54am Aug 2, 2013 5:54am
A quick note on spacing of scouts. So here's what I learned from my GJ trade.

For one thing, initial spacing was waaaaay tooo small. This put a lot of weight on my initial trades, which if the building was extensive, keep my average price near the beginning trades. The more ideal way is to initially place your spacing very LARGE. 50 pips is a good starting space for initial scouts. As you add more and more, the spacing can become less. Why is this good? Well, b/c near the end of the building, your positions will have higher weight, and thus, move your average price closer, meaning higher profits during the run. So an ideal spacing would be thin a first, but then thick and congested prior to profit release. In my GJ trade, I did the opposite. Using less scouts in the beginning also leaves room for more bullets near the end, which is a bonus too.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,187
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:55am Aug 2, 2013 5:55am
Tradingplan: usd/cad reverse by the 23% fibo retracement. Go Long with 1 postion und will pyramiding my postions up to 138% fibo extension.
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  • #55,188
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:02am Aug 2, 2013 6:02am
Quoting qFish
GJ Closed: Total pips gained: 1713.7 pips Total trades: 18 Lots per trade: 0.01 Pips/trade: 95.2 pips/trade Percent of original account increase: 5.88% Wow. Thank you Tah and all! Best 0.01 lot trade return ever. {image}
Well done qFish!
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #55,189
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:04am Aug 2, 2013 6:04am
Quoting loeil
{quote} Well done qFish!
Thanks loeil!
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,190
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:08am Aug 2, 2013 6:08am
from my understanding of pvsra in usdjpy 15mins chart mms are bear they have been push price above s/r with notable volume
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we DONT know where price will go the next second so trust your indicator
  • #55,191
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:18am Aug 2, 2013 6:18am
Quoting qFish
A quick note on spacing of scouts. So here's what I learned from my GJ trade. For one thing, initial spacing was waaaaay tooo small. This put a lot of weight on my initial trades, which if the building was extensive, keep my average price near the beginning trades. The more ideal way is to initially place your spacing very LARGE. 50 pips is a good starting space for initial scouts. As you add more and more, the spacing can become less. Why is this good? Well, b/c near the end of the building, your positions will have higher weight, and thus, move...

Excellent point, qFish

I haven't gotten a total grasp on all things PVSRA yet, but I have noticed
that the added "weight" of the later EP's appears to be the driving force
that leads to higher pip volume. It also adds to the safety of the overall
trade because it gives us the flexibility to move the TP target closer to the
point where the run for profits begins. This gives us two choices. We can exit the
trade a bit earlier thereby banking significant pip volume with less risk of the
trade reaching a reversal point, or we can ride it out to our initial TP target,
pushing the risk/reward factor to the maximum.

I love the fact that there are so many of us experimenting with what TAH
has given us. At this point in time, there is no right or wrong. Everyone seems
to have something to bring to the table, and that serves to fine tune the
proper use of PVSRA.

It's much like following a trail, one clue after another. It's exciting to see all
the successes up to this point, and it's even more exciting to anticipate what
lies ahead of us.

  • #55,192
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:23am Aug 2, 2013 6:23am
Quoting St3ve
{quote} Absolutely! I'll rely on my PVSRA and stay through it. There is also another pair which concerns me ... If I do the analysis wrong, please correct me! {image} Look at the volume increase while price increases during asian session. First sign of bears. Price drops during frankies hour .. not followed by high volume. Second sign of bears. After london open they pushed price above quarter number with increased volume at the highs. Third sign of bears. This was enough evidence to close 30% of my position. I will continue to keep the rest until...
Nice analysis St3ve,

but imho you are using just the P and the V, what about SRA?

Look at the image I attached you, it's the same image but I added a couple of things which I think it's quite important to remark.

1.- I agree about the volume at the top that you highlight with your red rectangle, but we have to take into account as well the strength (or the reaction) to that high volume. If you pay attention to it, that volume at the top is not able to break the latest low. I consider that the latest low because is the clear low that generates a new higher high.

2.- What happened when the price was trying to break the low? we have a candle with even more volume that the previous top. So, for me, that indicates that the previous high volume at the top could be only a "yo bro! let's stop for a while" and not a trend reversal.

Volume is important, of course, as important as the candle pattern for example, but we have to pay attention as well to the pure technical analysis about waves, highs and lows because that is INFORMATION.

I hope it helps St3ve
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #55,193
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:24am Aug 2, 2013 6:24am
UJ Analysis

From what I can see in this trade is that I can't see clearly if the MMs are Bulls or Bears. What do you guys see?
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  • #55,194
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:28am Aug 2, 2013 6:28am
Quoting St3ve
{quote} Absolutely! I'll rely on my PVSRA and stay through it. There is also another pair which concerns me ... If I do the analysis wrong, please correct me! {image} Look at the volume increase while price increases during asian session. First sign of bears. Price drops during frankies hour .. not followed by high volume. Second sign of bears. After london open they pushed price above quarter number with increased volume at the highs. Third sign of bears. This was enough evidence to close 30% of my position. I will continue to keep the rest until...
Sorry I made a post about the same pair just 2 minutes later, didn't see your post at the time of writing.
  • #55,195
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:36am Aug 2, 2013 6:36am
i am waiting for a good rejection from the dragon.
what's your opinion sonicers?
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  • #55,196
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:37am Aug 2, 2013 6:37am
Quoting ArtfulDodger
{quote} Excellent point, qFish I haven't gotten a total grasp on all things PVSRA yet, but I have noticed that the added "weight" of the later EP's appears to be the driving force that leads to higher pip volume. It also adds to the safety of the overall trade because it gives us the flexibility to move the TP target closer to the point where the run for profits begins. This gives us two choices. We can exit the trade a bit earlier thereby banking significant pip volume with less risk of the trade reaching a reversal point, or we can...
Yes, trading with our community here has been very rewarding for me. Just earlier (around london open prior to their push up), I was very confident in GJ heading north after NFP. However, Loeil noticed some PVSRA BEAR action. Everyone here who's made a constructive post in one way or another benefits us all. Yeah sure, GJ could still head north as these were one of the first signs (which actually is important prior to a big news event). This still doesn't eradicate everything they have been planning thus far. I was actually surprised that GJ went into profit release so early (started after the last Asian session). Of course this is MY first PVRSA trading prior to NFP. There's still much more to learn. Tah has probably went through countless releases and understand what's happening better. My aversion for risk and desire to lock in profits just tell me I should stay away from NFP for now. Just to see what happens and get more experience. But it's quite exciting that I have everyone else here also reading the market and adding good inputs, whether it be PVSRA, Sonic, counter-mm, technicals, fundamentals, etc. They all are inter-related and how everything ties in to manipulation is quite astonishing and enlightening.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,197
  • Aug 2, 2013 6:51am Aug 2, 2013 6:51am
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} Nice analysis St3ve, but imho you are using just the P and the V, what about SRA? Look at the image I attached you, it's the same image but I added a couple of things which I think it's quite important to remark. 1.- I agree about the volume at the top that you highlight with your red rectangle, but we have to take into account as well the strength (or the reaction) to that high volume. If you pay attention to it, that volume at the top is not able to break the latest low. I consider that the latest low because is the clear low that generates...
Nice explanation, this really helps making things clearer.

About the big volume bar at the low, this apparantly IS broker dependent. Because on my M5 chart this volume peak was lower then the one at the high.

This maybe brings back the discusion what the importance is of having a big broker. Or maybe is it an idea setting up a demo account on a broker with the highest volumes for analyzing PVSRA and do the trading with your own broker.
  • #55,198
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:18am Aug 2, 2013 7:18am
Quoting smarteng99
i am waiting for a good rejection from the dragon. what's your opinion sonicers? {image}
That's interesting because everyone else are waiting a downfall.

Can you see why we are waiting a falling of the price ? What was going on around whole and half number SR areas? Do you really think that MMs pump the price up for better longs?
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Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #55,199
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:26am Aug 2, 2013 7:26am
Quoting loeil
{quote} That's interesting because everyone else are waiting a downfall. Can you see why we are waiting a falling of the price ? What was going on around whole and half number SR areas? Do you really think that MMs pump the price up for better longs? {image}
I think he's trading classic, in which case he's at a position to enter a long. However, not a great position coming from an uptrend as where would you put your SL? The last big dip... is a long ways down. TP probably at the next SR level which is about 30-40 pips from entry after the candle breaks the dragon (which it is likely based on PVRSA). Of course... it will go down b/c MMs are BEARS based on how they are spiking prices with high volume above key SR levels. You may get a quick long scalp trade aimign to hit the next whole Level SR. But ... NFP in 5 minutes. That candle might be bigger than you think :-). My opinion... NO GO for this classic long. If you've been building shorts, then heck, a few more scouts as prices spike during NFP would be... NICE.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,200
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:28am Aug 2, 2013 7:28am
UCAD 8 trades closed:
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Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
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