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  • #55,161
  • Aug 2, 2013 1:48am Aug 2, 2013 1:48am
Tah,

what is your opinion in our open trades in GU, GJ, UJ having in mind that today we will have the NFP release?
  • #55,162
  • Edited 2:17am Aug 2, 2013 1:54am | Edited 2:17am
Quoting phbenv
Tah, what is your opinion in our open trades in GU, GJ, UJ having in mind that today we will have the NFP release?
I see no reason to think the MMs will change their tune. What they have been doing they have been doing knowing today was coming. They have their plan and have been working their plan,.....and I see no reason they will abandon their plan.

The forex market is not "regulated". What we call "insider trading" is in the forex market a matter of routine. I am of the opinion that little escapes the big money players. What is "news" to us is not to them. They just hold off until the right time to spring their traps so it all looks more "up & up" to the casual observer, so they can catch more traders on the wrong side, and all this obviously mostly for the reason of making profits, and therefore moving prices to do so, no matter what is in the releases.

You want to know how important these releases are? I have seen price move 100-200 pips on them. And the following week, or the following day, or even in just a few following hours, the price will be right back where it started from! It is all bullshit, but coveted by the MMs because it gives them more "excuses" to manipulate prices so they can increase their profits.

Think about it. The value of currencies like the USD and the euro are so far skewed from their "real worth", it is ludicrous to think that these monthly bullshit statistics can have any real influence! The only influence is the MMs and what they want to do with the currencies. And the only influence bigger then them are the central banks when they "intervene". The rest is just chips on on the gambling table as the wheel spins. And these "news" items are just excuses for the MMs to spin the wheel.

All we have to do is pay attention to the charts and PVSRA.
  • #55,163
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:12am Aug 2, 2013 2:12am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} I see no reason to think the MMs will change their tune. What they have been doing they have been doing knowing today was coming. They have their plan and have been working their plan,.....and I see no reason they will abandon their plan. The forex market is not "regulated". What we call "insider trading" is in the forex market a matter of routine. I am of the opinion that little escapes the big money players. What is "news" to us is not to them. They just hold off until the right time to spring their traps so it all looks more "up...

We share the same idea, but as you are much more experienced than me, I needed your "confirmation". I wasn't sure about my grasp of manipulation.
Thanks again for all the enlightenment that you continually offer.
  • #55,164
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:16am Aug 2, 2013 2:16am
GJ Analysis: Asian session has pushed price up (continual run for profits from previous asian session). We see nice pre-london session BULLISH action. The handoff also shows a nice reversal for better pricing. It's like a rubber band. Pull it back and shoot it up! The NFP could be a very nice catalyst to pull price down (knee jerk reaction) before whipping it back up (true direction). Hell's gonna break loose. Going to hang on to my GJ and ride this shit out!

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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,165
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:21am Aug 2, 2013 2:21am
Save your bullets folks! Wait for those price extremes! B/c... they will happen. Then load it the hell up!
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,166
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:30am Aug 2, 2013 2:30am
Manipulation... manipulation... manipulation... this is the MM's revealing their cards.

It all makes sense when you realize whether MM's are Bulls or Bears.
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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,167
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:38am Aug 2, 2013 2:38am
If MMs on EU are truly BEARS, then they will want to drive price up if they are not fully loaded. They normally have one last move before the final showdown to finish off their quotas. Especially now since they are at the top and the run has not yet started. So we will wait and see what will happen.

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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,168
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:40am Aug 2, 2013 2:40am
Quoting qFish
Manipulation... manipulation... manipulation... this is the MM's revealing their cards. It all makes sense when you realize whether MM's are Bulls or Bears. {image}
Sometimes It Pays to Not Advertise

qFish! Now you keep revealing our outlook on what the MMs are doing to traders, and in time everyone is going to be here. And if everyone is here (and making money off the greedy arrogant MMs), who is going to keep the MMs in business? I mean, all because of you, the market could collapse!
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  • #55,169
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:53am Aug 2, 2013 2:53am
!! WARNING ABOUT NEW MT4 FEATURE !!

I notice that some have posted charts showing the new "instant order" box in the upper left corner of the MT4 chart window. In case you have not already discovered this, if you are building a position, say you have 10 seeds growing, and then you use this order box to add another, any TP/SL you have previously set will be zeroed out! This means you are left with all your trades without your intended TP/SL, and you must go back into your trade ledger and reinstate these values! If you don't, the price might run right to or thru your intended TP, and then pull way back again, leaving you in the trade when you could have been out with your intended profits!

I do not understand why Metaquotes has set it up to work this way, but check yours out and be informed of how it works. The original order tile does not zero out your TP/SL values, and when using this orginal order tile most brokers automatically apply your TP/SL to any additional orders so that you do not have to.
  • #55,170
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:00am Aug 2, 2013 3:00am
Quoting qFish
GJ Analysis: Asian session has pushed price up (continual run for profits from previous asian session). We see nice pre-london session BULLISH action. The handoff also shows a nice reversal for better pricing. It's like a rubber band. Pull it back and shoot it up! The NFP could be a very nice catalyst to pull price down (knee jerk reaction) before whipping it back up (true direction). Hell's gonna break loose. Going to hang on to my GJ and ride this shit out! {image}
"Going to hang on to my GJ and ride this shit out!"

I'll do the same thing mate
  • #55,171
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:00am Aug 2, 2013 3:00am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Sometimes It Pays to Not Advertise qFish! Now you keep revealing our outlook on what the MMs are doing to traders, and in time everyone is going to be here. And if everyone is here (and making money off the greedy arrogant MMs), who is going to keep the MMs in business? I mean, all because of you, the market could collapse! {image}
Ahah...

What was I thinking. (zipping mouth shut) Now what are they going to do? They can't possibly come up with a different plan. Maybe they just give us their money outright now. Same result right :-)
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,172
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:06am Aug 2, 2013 3:06am
Quoting qFish
{quote} Ahah... What was I thinking. (zipping mouth shut) Now what are they going to do? They can't possibly come up with a different plan. Maybe they just give us their money outright now. Same result right :-)
Great idea, qFish. I'd get right on that. Send off your memo to the head of GS, Citibank, UBS, SwissCredit, MorganChase, etc.,.....just don't omit any of the big boys,.......stipulating the monthly stipend they should start sending to us.......
  • #55,173
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:08am Aug 2, 2013 3:08am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} I see no reason to think the MMs will change their tune. What they have been doing they have been doing knowing today was coming. They have their plan and have been working their plan,.....and I see no reason they will abandon their plan. The forex market is not "regulated". What we call "insider trading" is in the forex market a matter of routine. I am of the opinion that little escapes the big money players. What is "news" to us is not to them. They just hold off until the right time to spring their traps so it all looks more "up...
And this is why fundamentals is also important. Because they are MM's "opportunities" to manipulate trader psychology. They know we all are watching, and waiting, ... on the news. For us... what's more important is when it happens... not what. And this is not just periodic news either. They will take advantage every opportunity (good or bad news) that shows up. It's sad, but true.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,174
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:13am Aug 2, 2013 3:13am
Quoting traderathome
!! WARNING ABOUT NEW MT4 FEATURE !! I notice that some have posted charts showing the new "instant order" box in the upper left corner of the MT4 chart window. In case you have not already discovered this, if you are building a position, say you have 10 seeds growing, and then you use this order box to add another, any TP/SL you have previously set will be zeroed out! This means you are left with all your trades without your intended TP/SL, and you must go back into your trade ledger and reinstate these values! If you don't, the price might run...
Thanks TAH! I did not know this. Could screw a lot of ppl over. Man it's 4am and I'm not sleeping. lol.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,175
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:34am Aug 2, 2013 3:34am
EU pushed up above the x.25 SR level. Adding my 6th short scout. As you know, I've closed out my previous pairs for profits. Now all my firepower saved will be used only on two open pairs (EU and GJ).

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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #55,176
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:40am Aug 2, 2013 3:40am
GJ some bear signs came up. No need to react right away, but it's possible they are looking higher prices for adding shorts. High volume around whole number SR area.

BTW we are looking GU fallings so it's possible that GJ will fall too. Just speculating here.
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Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #55,177
  • Aug 2, 2013 4:04am Aug 2, 2013 4:04am
  •  St3ve
  • | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Recovering from losses ... | 77 Posts
AUD/JPY

Lost faith in my AJ trade and closed all 12 trade components for a meager 340pip gain.
Looking at the chart, my PVSRA told me, that there is a possibility of MMs switching to bear action.
Both sell-actions in asian and london session started right above the quarter mark (where MMs tend to open shorts). There was even a first sign during yesterdays london/us session where they could have aquired their first short orders.

If NFP reveals positive US data, AU might drop further. This doesn't mean that AJ will also drop, but because I also have a lot of open orders on other pairs, I don't want to risk anything and closed it in profit.

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Steve
  • #55,178
  • Aug 2, 2013 4:16am Aug 2, 2013 4:16am
Quoting St3ve
AUD/JPY Lost faith in my AJ trade and closed all 12 trade components for a meager 340pip gain. Looking at the chart, my PVSRA told me, that there is a possibility of MMs switching to bear action. Both sell-actions in asian and london session started right above the quarter mark (where MMs tend to open shorts). There was even a first sign during yesterdays london/us session where they could have aquired their first short orders. If NFP reveals positive US data, AU might drop further. This doesn't mean that AJ will also drop, but because I also have...
Totally agree with you. Look how the volume was raising when the price went higher. Seems more bearish than bullish for me too.
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Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #55,179
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:03am Aug 2, 2013 5:03am
  •  St3ve
  • | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Recovering from losses ... | 77 Posts
USD/JPY

Really intresting situation we currently have in UJ when you look at it from a higher TF.
A strong trendline (rejected price multiple times) and the 61,8 fibo level from the last downswing AND the last upswing right in front of us!
Will NFP have the power to blast through all this technical restistances?


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Steve
  • #55,180
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:10am Aug 2, 2013 5:10am
Quoting St3ve
USD/JPY Really intresting situation we currently have in UJ when you look at it from a higher TF. A strong trendline (rejected price multiple times) and the 61,8 fibo level from the last downswing AND the last upswing right in front of us! Will NFP have the power to blast through all this technical restistances? {image} {image} Steve
If there is something with enough power to break all that, that's the NFP.

In my case, it's being hard to be holding all my orders, a bad NFP could destroy all my profits but on the other hand I still see strong bears on GU, NU, EU and bulls on UJ.

Hard decidision...

For the NFP, these are the ranges you have to take into account to measure the impact.

<160k - Very very BAD for USD
Between 160k and 185k - BAD for the USD but I think there will be a simple spike where MMs can short EU, GU, etc at a better price
Between 185 and 200k - Good but there won't be a huge run
>200k - Run run run

My bet? Between 200k and 210k
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
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