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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,421
  • Edited 10:01am Aug 1, 2013 9:34am | Edited 10:01am
Quoting Lucky_FX
{quote} If I remember correctly, Barclays forecasted USD/JPY reach 110 before the election thing in favors of Abe. And the election did favors Abe. So I guess now, hold on and fasten your seat-belt
yup. there are a lot tech things going on*, but in the end, japan wants a weak yen. can't argue with that.

(*actually, tl techs are working pretty nicely: the tl sys defined most accurately by high of 02.06 and the low of 05.09 --they don't make it easy for ya-- called out the echos from last week's fall and the low on 07.11 which completes a full impulse at about 99.30 ...i expect that impulse to be wave 1 of the larger upward impulse that will develop and will look for buying ops as the larger corrective wave 2 forms ... but in the end, i think it comes down to abe)

barclay's? 110? i would like that
  • #35,422
  • Aug 1, 2013 9:42am Aug 1, 2013 9:42am
Quoting Lucky_FX
{quote} I don't get what you mean there...I'll re-adjust my SL every +45pips, if that what you meant. So when USD/JPY price at 99.50, my SL would be at around 98.60 - securing me +75pips no matter what
Some platforms provide a trailing SL facility which advances the SL when price advances, and holds at its high-water mark when price retreats.
So for instance you can set a trailing SL at minus 45 pips when you place a trade and that will be your maximum loss, and if price moves up 150 pips the SL will move up locking in 105 pips gain in this example. Thx for your reply in any case.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,423
  • Aug 1, 2013 9:58am Aug 1, 2013 9:58am
I am happy again for a week rest
  • #35,424
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:00am Aug 1, 2013 10:00am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} yup. there are a lot tech things going on*, but in the end, japan wants a weak yen. can't argue with that. (*actually, tl techs are working pretty nicely: the tl sys defined most accurately by high of 02.06 and the low of 05.09 --they don't make it easy for ya-- called out the echos from last week's fall and the low on 07.11 which completes a full impulse at about 99.30 ...i expect that impulse to be wave 1 of the larger upward impulse that will develop and will look for buying ops as the larger corrective wave 2 forms ... but in the...
if nfp shows a decent beat tomorrow, .uj will have an excuse to spike up to the next tl at ~100.90 -- i think the spike would form a lower order w1 of a very large wave 3 on the way to 104. if the correct wave 2 of the larger impulse pulls back to 99 or so today and i can buy more there, that would be sweet.
  • #35,425
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:08am Aug 1, 2013 10:08am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} if nfp shows a decent beat tomorrow, .uj will have an excuse to spike up to the next tl at ~100.90 -- i think the spike would form a lower order w1 of a very large wave 3 on the way to 104. if the correct wave 2 of the larger impulse pulls back to 99 or so today and i can buy more there, that would be sweet.
I expect to see 98.40 later today, (98.70-98.80 is also welcome )
Hope price comes around daily low

We might not see 97-98 range again for a long time...

I am preparing for a nice long run, will add more longs on the following days (from daily lows)
  • #35,426
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:22am Aug 1, 2013 10:22am
Hope not 98.40..thats where I am placing my current SL now. Dont want to wake up and my positions are closed altough its still in the green.
  • #35,427
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:24am Aug 1, 2013 10:24am
as far as technicals go, a push upward to 99.7ish is still on the cards before any considerable retracement imo .. we're between a 50 and 61 % retracement of july's uptrend.. the respect this pair has played to fib levels on the way down last week shows brief consolidation at every fib level before the bear movement resumed.. Bull run's been playing out this way so far.. Currently on 50% retracement where this began.

Pardon us bulls while we reset your indicators at higher lows, lolz.
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #35,428
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:19pm Aug 1, 2013 12:19pm
I have 4 mini lots USDJPY opened by the end of June at 97,75...after a very nice long run till 101,8 everything started to reverse and yesterday it touched 97,6!

I was very depressed because I didn't closed the trade before...

After yesterday's FOMC meeting I was looking at FXStreet website where an analyst (Valeria something) was shouting everyone to sell yens.

I was with my finger very close to pushing the sell button but then I made a nice consideration: Japan index futures was going up...and that meant that during the night Japanese would have tried to sell some yens...furthermore I thought that the Chinese data could finally become again positive and then said to my self let's wait and eventually let's loose 300 euros more. So I decided to keep the position opened.

Well done...so far, at least!

Now I'm waiting for Berlusconi's sentence that could move a little bit the market...although I am not 100% sure what could happen.

I presume that if Berlusconi will be condamned then eur will go down (as well as all of european indexes) but what will happen to usdjpy? Will probably start again a risk off phase and then a lot of yen buy?
  • #35,429
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:32pm Aug 1, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting apfrezza
I have 4 mini lots USDJPY opened by the end of June at 97,75...after a very nice long run till 101,8 everything started to reverse.....
Set your TP now and exit with a smile when you get to that point.
NFP tomorrow will push UJ some more, but nobody knows how much.
There is descending trendline since July 7th.
Decide your SL also, now you are in profit.
Which ever happens just take the money and plan your next trade - do not look back.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,430
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:55pm Aug 1, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Set your TP now and exit with a smile when you get to that point. NFP tomorrow will push UJ some more, but nobody knows how much. There is descending trendline since July 7th. Decide your SL also, now you are in profit. Which ever happens just take the money and plan your next trade - do not look back.
right. nfp probably will give it a good goose and it looks like the dip i'm waiting for isn't coming... gonna add to my existing long at 50 if it doesn't bounce too much. expect next target and consolidation at uptrend line (100.92) following nfp.
  • #35,431
  • Aug 1, 2013 1:44pm Aug 1, 2013 1:44pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Set your TP now and exit with a smile when you get to that point. NFP tomorrow will push UJ some more, but nobody knows how much. There is descending trendline since July 7th. Decide your SL also, now you are in profit. Which ever happens just take the money and plan your next trade - do not look back.
Nice...But which should be a reasonable TP now? Also, what about a SL?

Reading on various forums on the internet it seems that UJ could reach 110 but I would also be glad if we could touch 104...

I decided however that when Hull MA at 4 hr will give me a sign to sell I'll do it!
  • #35,432
  • Aug 1, 2013 3:04pm Aug 1, 2013 3:04pm
Gidday

US/JPY all week everyone been talking down 95 lower etc:nerd:

The 104 an 110 is my bigger plan

Got longs in any way

Great if it keeps climbing
  • #35,433
  • Aug 1, 2013 3:15pm Aug 1, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday US/JPY all week everyone been talking down 95 lower etc:nerd: The 104 an 110 is my bigger plan Got longs in any way Great if it keeps climbing

we should see 110 soon. Recent Yen strength was just a pullback into more Yen weakness.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #35,434
  • Aug 1, 2013 3:57pm Aug 1, 2013 3:57pm
we need an hour close above 99.823 in order to challenge the 100.44 highs. we need a 4 hour close above that level to signal trend reversal. Right now we could be witnessing a retrace before the next leg down. Though at the moment things look very good for USD/JPY, understand that this could reverse in a heartbeat. IMF does not support JPY easing at the current moment and this move up has to do with USD strength not yen weakness making it all the more scary that is USD strength does not sustain itself we could get a nasty sell off in this pair. While signs at the current moment look positive be aware that there is potential and risk for a sizeable sell off to occur. Make sure the signals present themselves. god bless
  • #35,435
  • Aug 1, 2013 4:16pm Aug 1, 2013 4:16pm
we are in retrace zone . 99.52 (61.8 ) to 99 .83 (73) . i think the possiblty is high we will head back down for sometime now and back with nfp .
  • #35,436
  • Aug 1, 2013 4:21pm Aug 1, 2013 4:21pm
Im lazy to go back and search for some posts, from 10+ Vouchers and similar people predicting 109 aso.. without giving a time frame..

Of course all is possible, and one day we will meet some martians by sure, but at the moment we are still fighting with 100, again..

IMO opinion, that was misleading and negligent, especially for newbies..

Wanted to state that. Folks, dont believe anything you read here. Or think twice (at least) about..

How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #35,437
  • Aug 1, 2013 4:35pm Aug 1, 2013 4:35pm
yup booze looking for shorts at 99.835 for me as well as looking for shorts in AUD/JPY
  • #35,438
  • Aug 1, 2013 4:48pm Aug 1, 2013 4:48pm
Any Suggestion for a buy or sell rite now?
  • #35,439
  • Aug 1, 2013 5:18pm Aug 1, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting Oumar.N
Any Suggestion for a buy or sell rite now?
NO.

(also because of the possibility being sued)




And because, as the first post on FF, there are so much other question that could be asked..

Or a chart, with your view..
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #35,440
  • Aug 1, 2013 5:20pm Aug 1, 2013 5:20pm
.
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