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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #68,541
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:05am Aug 1, 2013 8:05am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} I understand what you are seeing. It is a zombie afterall. Still some high impact news to come.
Yea, pure gamble now.. UJ wants 99.30 badly - may shift USD cards a bit.. 3210 is my line in the sand for EU today (and UCHF HH or not - for refference).
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  • #68,542
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:33am Aug 1, 2013 8:33am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Yea, pure gamble now.. UJ wants 99.30 badly - may shift USD cards a bit.. 3210 is my line in the sand for EU today (and UCHF HH or not - for refference).

Don't know about pure gamble, I can see reasons. But very astute on UJ, above 99.10 starts to raise eyebrows.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #68,543
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:42am Aug 1, 2013 8:42am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Yea, pure gamble now.. UJ wants 99.30 badly - may shift USD cards a bit.. 3210 is my line in the sand for EU today (and UCHF HH or not - for refference).
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Don't know about pure gamble, I can see reasons. But very astute on UJ, above 99.10 starts to raise eyebrows.
My opinion is that the market is not about to stick its neck out until the NFP number is released. It is not only the future of the US equity markets that are at stake here. In fact the global markets benefit from the US QE.

So, since the majority of FX action is speculative and for hedging purposes, this pair (and the other majors) will not be making any wild swings until tomorrow's release.

Draghi was pretty much a non-event today and he was neither more nor less dovish than he was last time. However, for those who were listening very carefully, he pretty much hinted that an extended liquidity program was on the horizon and also that unless the credit sector starts to improve, there will very likely be a rate cut very soon.

For today it will not have much impact, but it will be taken into consideration after tomorrows NFP release... because at the end of the day, this market phase is all about the USD.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,544
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:45am Aug 1, 2013 8:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} My opinion is that the market is not about to stick its neck out until the NFP number is released. It is not only the future of the US equity markets that are at stake here. In fact the global markets benefit from the US QE. So, since the majority of FX action is speculative and for hedging purposes, this pair (and the other majors) will not be making any wild swings until tomorrow's release. Draghi was pretty much a non-event today and he was neither more nor less dovish than he was last time. However, for those who were listening...

I heard the dovish from Draghi, problem is Bernanke was too dovish yesterday, up to the data.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #68,545
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:49am Aug 1, 2013 8:49am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Don't know about pure gamble, I can see reasons. But very astute on UJ, above 99.10 starts to raise eyebrows.
by gamble I meant 40 pip per M5 candle volatility at highs/lows
UJ can turn at any time at/above 99.00, but 99.30's is the real point of interest if it gets there..
Probably EU will maintain narrow range - close daily candle as "bearish" today, and ramps up tomorrow or monday (provided, that current lows holds)
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  • #68,546
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:52am Aug 1, 2013 8:52am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} I heard the dovish from Draghi, problem is Bernanke was too dovish yesterday, up to the data.
Yep it's up to the data. and that is exactly how it should always be. In fact an ECB rate cut is also up to the data. The difference is that the FOMC keeps changing the goal posts.

Now if the data is good and then Benny finds some other reason to say it's not, then that is foul. However, I doubt he would do that considering he would like to end his term on a good note.

Anyway, as always time will tell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,547
  • Aug 1, 2013 9:04am Aug 1, 2013 9:04am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} by gamble I meant 40 pip per M5 candle volatility at highs/lows UJ can turn at any time at/above 99.00, but 99.30's is the real point of interest if it gets there.. Probably EU will maintain narrow range - close daily candle as "bearish" today, and ramps up tomorrow or monday (provided, that current lows holds)

Ok got it.

99.10 is based on waves but I get your level.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #68,548
  • Aug 1, 2013 9:23am Aug 1, 2013 9:23am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} by gamble I meant 40 pip per M5 candle volatility at highs/lows UJ can turn at any time at/above 99.00, but 99.30's is the real point of interest if it gets there.. Probably EU will maintain narrow range - close daily candle as "bearish" today, and ramps up tomorrow or monday (provided, that current lows holds)
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Ok got it. 99.10 is based on waves but I get your level.
So much for 99.10
I guess the US data trumped it.
Yep... It's all about the data
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,549
  • Aug 1, 2013 9:32am Aug 1, 2013 9:32am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} UJ can turn at any time at/above 99.00, but 99.30's is the real point of interest
SHort.. Will add if it goes higher, but it better not especially above 99.80.. Risk comes above 100.45 ofcourse.. Target 97.00
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  • #68,550
  • Aug 1, 2013 9:40am Aug 1, 2013 9:40am
GU bothers me most (regarding Dollar) - it has room for a 100 pip drop before bullish continuation..UCHF have room till 9370's IF 9352 gives, EU in the mean time hangs in the spider net...
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  • #68,551
  • Aug 1, 2013 9:40am Aug 1, 2013 9:40am
Trailing stop hit eugd in total 77 pips ....
Look who is down there, one of the pioneer of this thread PK (PipKiller) ....
Hello bro ...long time no see ...
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #68,552
  • Aug 1, 2013 9:50am Aug 1, 2013 9:50am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Trailing stop hit eugd in total 77 pips .... Look who is down there, one of the pioneer of this thread PK (PipKiller) .... Hello bro ...long time no see ...

Looking to add shorts if goes higher, pretty sure I posted chart in this thread before
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #68,553
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:01am Aug 1, 2013 10:01am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Trailing stop hit eugd in total 77 pips .... Look who is down there, one of the pioneer of this thread PK (PipKiller) .... Hello bro ...long time no see ...
Hello, Ya caught me sneaking around bored trading daily charts.

I havn't been trading this bastard of a pair. I'd love to short her but instead built a long USDCHF off the daily chart. In now for a full lot and a mental stop. The algos have been whipping the crap out of thin summer liquidity. Really bad this week

When I want to scalp a little it's UJ

My thoughts on E$. Several supply levels above so it wil have a tough time going higher...... But.....Ben hasn't stopped the printing press yet and Mario has done nothing but talk about printing so it's simply a matter of money supply and real demand that is keeping E$ elevated and won't let her fall where she should be. I don't follow fundies much but do catch from time to time about a lot of capitol going into the euro.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: E$.jpg Size: 77 KB
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #68,554
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:08am Aug 1, 2013 10:08am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Looking to add shorts if goes higher, pretty sure I posted chart in this thread before
Ehmmm missed your chart but yeah me too looking for a short if it goes higher..Earlier I missed a short on s&p may be I was not comfortable bcoz I dont trade s&p much but was eyeing on this level from few days..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s&p.png Size: 30 KB
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #68,555
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:12am Aug 1, 2013 10:12am
Quoting PipKiller
{quote}I don't follow fundies much but do catch from time to time about a lot of capitol going into the euro. {image}
Yep they always tell you about the inflows, yet keep their traps shut when it's flowing back out.

Welcome back again PK. We all missed you (That's a manly hug btw)

Are you here to stay this time?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,556
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:14am Aug 1, 2013 10:14am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
{quote} Ehmmm missed your chart but yeah me too looking for a short if it goes higher..Earlier I missed a short on s&p may be I was not comfortable bcoz I dont trade s&p much but was eyeing on this level from few days..
Butterfly played out now looking for more down...

Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Possible but looking at thus now. {image} {image}
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #68,557
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:15am Aug 1, 2013 10:15am
Here are my EW counts for both E/U and G/U
I've already submitted them for scrutiny in "The Club" thread and so far there is consensus that they are valid counts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.png Size: 100 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 82 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,558
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:18am Aug 1, 2013 10:18am
Quoting PipKiller
{quote} Hello, Ya caught me sneaking around bored trading daily charts. I havn't been trading this bastard of a pair. I'd love to short her but instead built a long USDCHF off the daily chart. In now for a full lot and a mental stop. The algos have been whipping the crap out of thin summer liquidity. Really bad this week When I want to scalp a little it's UJ My thoughts on E$. Several supply levels above so it wil have a tough time going higher...... But.....Ben hasn't stopped the printing press yet and Mario has done nothing but talk about printing...

Missed you bro
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #68,559
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:49am Aug 1, 2013 10:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep they always tell you about the inflows, yet keep their traps shut when it's flowing back out. Welcome back again PK. We all missed you (That's a manly hug btw) Are you here to stay this time?
LOL

Still hit and miss part time for now. I'm trading daily charts so I don't spend much time watching breaking news or intraday charts, it's mostly just noise to me. I generally wait for the end of the NY session and then look at the aftermath and carnage of the days session and read the summary of the NY, European and Asian markets to read what happened.

This is the only thread I read and keep up with though.

My trading day goes:
- Wake up
- Pop open a Starbucks Doubleshot Mocha
- Turn on the computer
- Open trading platform and look at positions P&L
- Poke around Forexlive for a bit to see what's happening
- Look at the economic calender on FF then Catch up on your thread
- Play Xbox or go to a pistol range and launch lead at paper
- Between NY close and Asia open adjust/add positions as needed.
- Watch TV and surf the net until I go to bed
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #68,560
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:55am Aug 1, 2013 10:55am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} STarts to look bullish again.. And UCHF maintained its bearish range... Trying a long against intraday lows for 3360's
EU SL at 3208, will try again at 3180's against 3160's for 3360's
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