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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #68,481
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:42am Jul 31, 2013 7:42am
Close below hourly 200 ema @ 1.3218 would be super.
  • #68,482
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:42am Jul 31, 2013 7:42am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Depending on how perky I'm feeling, I usually start my day pre FO looking at the Aussie and UJ to see if I can plunder a few early pips as the Australasian session winds down, so I'll keep a better watch there. Don't forget that tonight we have Helicopter Ben again and the dollar - via Swissy - is looking weak this morning......perhaps the Big Dogs helping it down whilst loading up on longs
and they were ......I actually traded UJ as Swissy had already put in its low when I got round to setting up trades for the releases......I had TPs at 98.25 and I got slipped when it didn't make it first time, but my second TP at 98.50 was a great place to bank - I think I'd better take the afternoon off in case I get an attack of "itchy finger"
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #68,483
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:45am Jul 31, 2013 7:45am
Quoting Islander
{quote} and they were ......I actually traded UJ as Swissy had already put in its low when I got round to setting up trades for the releases......I had TPs at 98.25 and I got slipped when it didn't make it first time, but my second TP at 98.50 was a great place to bank - I think I'd better take the afternoon off in case I get an attack of "itchy finger"
Good idea. Leave some crumbs for the rest of us
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,484
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:55am Jul 31, 2013 7:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Wedge is broken, but I would feel more comfy when the 200 hour MA is broken {image}
200 hour MA has been pierced.
Waiting for a close below before I smile
1.3195 is next hurdle of support. I hope it gets blown away.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,485
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:58am Jul 31, 2013 7:58am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
eu H4 S: 1.32053-1.31965
OK, but we could be going down much much much much much more, IMHO FOMC release could do a lot of damage today, perhaps we will see the EUR:USD way down @ 28xx testing MAJOR SUPPORT, perhaps even today! On the other hand, bad news from the FOMC could raise it up to 35xx, but considering that tappering down of QE was announced recently, not sure what are the chances that an alternative to tappering could be even mentioned..numbers for the US look pretty good and in comparison with the EU numbers, US is doing great
  • #68,486
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:10am Jul 31, 2013 8:10am
Quoting fikaky
{quote} OK, but we could be going down much much much much much more, IMHO FOMC release could do a lot of damage today, perhaps we will see the EUR:USD way down @ 28xx testing MAJOR SUPPORT, perhaps even today! On the other hand, bad news from the FOMC could raise it up to 35xx, but considering that tappering down of QE was announced recently, not sure what are the chances that an alternative to tappering could be even mentioned..numbers for the US look pretty good and in comparison with the EU numbers, US is doing great
Wow, you're very optimistic. Although I see this pair way below 1.28xx and even down as low or below the 2012 lows at 1.2050 area, I don't think the FOMC rate statem,ent is going to do much today. Tapering in September is already mostly priced in to the market so the risks of the FOMC statement are to the upside... not the downside. The real catalysts that will start this pair dropping down to where it truly belongs are tomorrow's ECB decision and press conference coupled with Friday's NFP report.

Just in case you have not seen my EW counts on the Euro, here they are

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,487
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:19am Jul 31, 2013 8:19am
Looking at this 5m chart and also the 60m chart I'm thinking that after that very wide ranged red hammer with ultra high tick volumes that made the low, the downside for now is limited and price may revisit the 3250 area before the FOMC later today
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #68,488
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:23am Jul 31, 2013 8:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Wow, you're very optimistic. Although I see this pair way below 1.28xx and even down as low or below the 2012 lows at 1.2050 area, I don't think the FOMC rate statem,ent is going to do much today. Tapering in September is already mostly priced in to the market so the risks of the FOMC statement are to the upside... not the downside. The real catalysts that will start this pair dropping down to where it truly belongs are tomorrow's ECB decision and press conference coupled with Friday's NFP report. Just in case you have not seen my EW counts...
OK, but my understanding is that the start of the tappering was not defined? It was just announced...
  • #68,489
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:30am Jul 31, 2013 8:30am
Quoting fikaky
{quote} OK, but we could be going down much much much much much more, IMHO FOMC release could do a lot of damage today, perhaps we will see the EUR:USD way down @ 28xx testing MAJOR SUPPORT, perhaps even today! On the other hand, bad news from the FOMC could raise it up to 35xx, but considering that tappering down of QE was announced recently, not sure what are the chances that an alternative to tappering could be even mentioned..numbers for the US look pretty good and in comparison with the EU numbers, US is doing great
It cant go in a straight line there is always S & R so I am talking about the S:1 which I have spotted on my charts...And as far as the price which you have mentioned , PT already mentioned in detalied and I also dont think so FOMC will have such an impact today...
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #68,490
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:31am Jul 31, 2013 8:31am
Quoting fikaky
{quote} OK, but my understanding is that the start of the tappering was not defined? It was just announced...
Yes it was announced that it will start later this year and QE will end by mid next year.
A survey of the top financial players (big banks) showed that they expect tapering to start by September with a reduction of 20 billion in purchases, bringing the monthly purchases down to 65 billion from the current 85. Of course this all depends on the data coming out as the Fed expects it.

Therefore, the above is already "mostly" priced in.

If the FOMC announces an official taper today, as long as it is in line with the above, although there will be some movement in favour of the USD, it will not be protracted.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,491
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:31am Jul 31, 2013 8:31am
Quoting fikaky
{quote} OK, but my understanding is that the start of the tappering was not defined? It was just announced...
+ I also share Your view that the pair will drop at liest to 1.2...even lower
  • #68,492
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:34am Jul 31, 2013 8:34am
Quoting fikaky
{quote} + I also share Your view that the pair will drop at liest to 1.2...even lower
Read this (if you haven't already) >>> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post6855516
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,493
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:38am Jul 31, 2013 8:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes it was announced that it will start later this year and QE will end by mid next year. A survey of the top financial players (big banks) showed that they expect tapering to start by September with a reduction of 20 billion in purchases, bringing the monthly purchases down to 65 billion from the current 85. Of course this all depends on the data coming out as the Fed expects it. Therefore, the above is already "mostly" priced in. If the FOMC announces an official taper today, as long as it is in line with the above, although there will...
Thank You PipTrapper! Your comments have been most helpful!!
  • #68,494
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:38am Jul 31, 2013 8:38am
This thread is waking up again.

Welcome back my good friends and also a warm welcome to the newcomers
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,495
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:41am Jul 31, 2013 8:41am
So far EU behaving like its pretending to be bearish.. Waiting for a rejection to happen at any time now or after small intraday low at 320x.
3165 must hold for any bullish perspectives in current swing...
69
  • #68,496
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:43am Jul 31, 2013 8:43am
Quoting Likerty
So far EU behaving like its pretending to be bearish.. Waiting for a rejection to happen at any time now or after small intraday low at 320x. 3165 must hold for any bullish perspectives in current swing...
Translation: EU behaving like an idiot

I want to see this pair break and hold below 1.3070. Then I will be satisfied that the bears are in control again.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,497
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:49am Jul 31, 2013 8:49am
EUR/USD- Trading the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...C_Meeting.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,498
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:50am Jul 31, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
{quote} It cant go in a straight line there is always S & R so I am talking about the S:1 which I have spotted on my charts...And as far as the price which you have mentioned , PT already mentioned in detalied and I also dont think so FOMC will have such an impact today...
I understand, i fell that it will reach that too
  • #68,499
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:53am Jul 31, 2013 8:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Translation: EU behaving like an idiot I want to see this pair break and hold below 1.3070. Then I will be satisfied that the bears are in control again.
...the usual outcome of stop hunting process before major continuation/reversal.. As 3160's holds, 3360's (3430's/3480's later) still in view. My line in the sand for today is 3200.

But even if 3160's goes there are plenty of levels below up till 2990's for this turd to screw all the short term shorters once more... Ultimately, M/Q HH above 3700 before major bearish continuation seems very reasonable
69
  • #68,500
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:03am Jul 31, 2013 9:03am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} ...the usual outcome of stop hunting process before major continuation/reversal.. As 3160's holds, 3360's (3430's/3480's later) still in view. My line in the sand for today is 3200. But even if 3160's goes there are plenty of levels below up till 2990's for this turd to screw all the short term shorters once more... Ultimately, M/Q HH above 3700 before major bearish continuation seems very reasonable
Yes of course it is very reasonable, especially in the context of how reasonably stubborn this friggin pair has been. It's a bloody zombie

For that last year, at every major resistance level I have been saying "The top is in, the top is in.... No it's not"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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