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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,321
  • Jul 30, 2013 12:41pm Jul 30, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting arash66110
{quote} after election yen got weak . and from Thursday it got strength without any news to support it. even kuroda speech was dovish I am really wonder why yen is strong?!
when abe was elected fundamentalists saw the economy getting worse while retail traders for some reason jumped for joy.. probably because of the hypereasing?
anyways abe's goal is to raise vat % to 8 into 2014 and 10 into 2015 vat is consumption tax so he is trying to suppress retail but also apply hypereasing strategies which both fight the other.. its all bad for yen unless they remove this guy but he is supported by 74% of the people because in his first election the market soared up 55% but honestly is has been so oversold for so long it had to be bought up.. this guy got the credit but didnt deserve it.. now his second office will show his policies true face...
  • #35,322
  • Jul 30, 2013 3:50pm Jul 30, 2013 3:50pm
Abe's other stated goal is to introduce a little inflation. Applying sales tax in measured steps will do that.
That leaves further money-printing and Yen weakening for later when another boost to the export side of the economy may be needed.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,323
  • Jul 30, 2013 4:56pm Jul 30, 2013 4:56pm
Pennant on the h1. And a re-look at the higher tf pennant.

Price could go either way from here.
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"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,324
  • Jul 30, 2013 5:02pm Jul 30, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting Exodus
Abe's other stated goal is to introduce a little inflation. Applying sales tax in measured steps will do that. That leaves further money-printing and Yen weakening for later when another boost to the export side of the economy may be needed.
did you see what happened in the 90's when they raised it from 3 to 5%? I wouldn't say it was good.. you gotta remember they have an inverted population pyramid things don't quite work the same.
  • #35,325
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:26pm Jul 30, 2013 6:26pm
I'm short from 98.1 after a rejection on the smaller time-frames.
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"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,326
  • Jul 30, 2013 7:05pm Jul 30, 2013 7:05pm
Quoting livethedream
I'm short from 98.1 after a rejection on the smaller time-frames. {image}
Hit some major resistance, out with 10 pips.

Now we'll wait and see which side of this pennant we're going to break out on.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,327
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:22pm Jul 30, 2013 10:22pm
Its going up. 3 days it tried to consolidate below 98.00, but failed.

Got 2 long positions at 98.0x. Target 103 with trailing stop loss every 50pips
  • #35,328
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:36pm Jul 30, 2013 11:36pm
Gidday

Got longs in US/JPY any way

What about this retrace

that everybody is talking about.

You get the feeling something has to happen soon.

Thought we would see some big spikes

I do like a good spike:nerd:
  • #35,329
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:58pm Jul 30, 2013 11:58pm
Quoting Lucky_FX
Its going up. 3 days it tried to consolidate below 98.00, but failed. Got 2 long positions at 98.0x. Target 103 with trailing stop loss every 50pips
Today's news will give us a direction. One way or the other.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,330
  • Jul 31, 2013 1:00am Jul 31, 2013 1:00am
To go up further
It has to break 99.0 which is 50% fib
  • #35,331
  • Jul 31, 2013 3:09am Jul 31, 2013 3:09am
Quoting domino
{quote} did you see what happened in the 90's when they raised it from 3 to 5%? I wouldn't say it was good.. you gotta remember they have an inverted population pyramid things don't quite work the same.
I remember them raising interest rates to 0.25% on the basis that free money was inappropriate, unethical or both.
Six months later the rate went back to zero......
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,332
  • Jul 31, 2013 3:15am Jul 31, 2013 3:15am
Quoting domino
{quote} when abe was elected fundamentalists saw the economy getting worse while retail traders for some reason jumped for joy.. probably because of the hypereasing? anyways abe's goal is to raise vat % to 8 into 2014 and 10 into 2015 vat is consumption tax so he is trying to suppress retail but also apply hypereasing strategies which both fight the other.. its all bad for yen unless they remove this guy but he is supported by 74% of the people because in his first election the market soared up 55% but honestly is has been so oversold for so long...

if it was the reason we should see it on jul 22, however it started on 25 of jul
moreover kuroda said on jul 29 that: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Monday the sales tax increase would not hurt the economy and was needed to repair public finances

so it should get weak but I think because of huge sellers of retailers ,big boys bought jpy.
  • #35,333
  • Jul 31, 2013 6:15am Jul 31, 2013 6:15am
Long at 97.65, think about exit if it gets near 98
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,334
  • Jul 31, 2013 6:25am Jul 31, 2013 6:25am
Quoting Exodus
Long at 97.65, think about exit if it gets near 98
Right with you. No follow through to the down-side. Selling momentum seems weak at the moment.

I might move my s/l to b/e when I get the chance and try to ride it out longer than 98... but that depends on how price moves.
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"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,335
  • Jul 31, 2013 6:58am Jul 31, 2013 6:58am
Quoting livethedream
{quote} Right with you. No follow through to the down-side. Selling momentum seems weak at the moment. I might move my s/l to b/e when I get the chance and try to ride it out longer than 98... but that depends on how price moves. {image}
Yep, obvious lack of determination at 97.60.
Now SL'd at BE+1 whilst I make lunch.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,336
  • Jul 31, 2013 6:58am Jul 31, 2013 6:58am
MAYBE U.S. news will send it up toward 99. Huge speculation though... probably more of a hopeful wish than anything... gotta dream though.

S/L on my long is set to only a couple pips, so I'll either lose a few or gain a lot.

P.S. 99 is 50% fib mark of drop from 100.44
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,337
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:11am Jul 31, 2013 7:11am
I always get this wrong, so I shall ask; what is a reasonable trailing-stop to use on this pair? ...anyone
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,338
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:23am Jul 31, 2013 7:23am
out of shorts on nonfarm
  • #35,339
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:24am Jul 31, 2013 7:24am
Well, out at 98 looks like it was a bit premature. Just how premature will become apparent when I return from my blood donor session.

edit: bo||ox! Looks like tapering is going to be sooner......
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,340
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:31am Jul 31, 2013 7:31am
Quoting livethedream
MAYBE U.S. news will send it up toward 99. Huge speculation though... probably more of a hopeful wish than anything... gotta dream though. S/L on my long is set to only a couple pips, so I'll either lose a few or gain a lot. P.S. 99 is 50% fib mark of drop from 100.44
good data for US we might that 99 finger crossed
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