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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #68,441
  • Jul 30, 2013 8:49am Jul 30, 2013 8:49am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} The pity is, all this companies do so much harm and get only a poor slap on the wrist What is 400 Mio. for JPM? They can pay this without noticing it much in their books........

Get caught red handed in China with such crimes lately and most probably your head is off.....
  • #68,442
  • Jul 30, 2013 8:53am Jul 30, 2013 8:53am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} The pity is, all this companies do so much harm and get only a poor slap on the wrist What is 400 Mio. for JPM? They can pay this without noticing it much in their books........
Yep very true. The justice system is two tiered.
A rogue trader does jail for half his/her life, but a bank that created the culture to encourage him/her to do it, gets a slap on the wrist.

Anyway, I wish they would pay the 400 mil to me instead. I could do much more good with it than the US government can ever dream of.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,443
  • Jul 30, 2013 8:55am Jul 30, 2013 8:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep very true. The justice system is two tiered. A rogue trader does jail for half his/her life, but a bank that created the culture to encourage him/her to do it, gets a slap on the wrist. Anyway, I wish they would pay the 400 mil to me instead. I could do much more good with it than the US government can ever dream of.
Hmmmm..... 400 mill', 10-1 leverage, short Euro. Now you could move the market....maybe a little bit
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #68,444
  • Jul 30, 2013 8:57am Jul 30, 2013 8:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hi PM23, I use this indie in MT4. It's pretty good. Gartley patterns are quite accurate and dependable. They have about a 60% to 70% success rate. {file}
Cheers PT and also to Mr. Scott....

I downloaded the indicator but when i try to attach it to the chart nothing happens, am i doing something wrong?
Cheers!!
  • #68,445
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:05am Jul 30, 2013 9:05am
Quoting PipsMaster23
{quote} Cheers PT and also to Mr. Scott.... I downloaded the indicator but when i try to attach it to the chart nothing happens, am i doing something wrong?

Yes mt4? Put in indicators folder.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #68,446
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:16am Jul 30, 2013 9:16am
Yep perfect... thanks!
Cheers!!
  • #68,447
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:21am Jul 30, 2013 9:21am
anyone seen maxwell????
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #68,448
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:27am Jul 30, 2013 9:27am
The next few days...

So now that pretty much most of us can agree that I have a fairly accurate EW count here, the next move for the Euro is down (give or take about 100 pips from current levels).

The only question now is the catalyst.

We have a few this week and the key ones are as follows.

1. FOMC rate statement (Wednesday)
2. ECB overnight rate and Draghi press conference (Thursday)
3. Non-Farm Payroll. (Friday)

There is also the US GDP and the ADP non-farm report on Wednesday and although they may wake up some speculative front running action, the "Pièce de résistance" will be more so the official BLS NFP and UE rate on Friday.

So, lets examine the potential of the three above key releases to start an impulse move to the downside.

1. FOMC. To taper or not to taper. I don't see how a taper will be announced tomorrow. However anything is possible. The fact that the market participants do not expect an announcement may cause a knee-jerk dollar bid if we do get such an announcement. However, since a September taper is probably already mostly price in, I don't expect the FOMC rate statement to trump the market's insistence on waiting to see what the actual NFP data has to say.

2. ECB. To cut or not to cut. If we do get a 25 basis point rate cut on deposits (Negative deposit rate), then I fully expect to see the Euro drop heavily towards the 1.30xx zone (approx 200 pips) to challenge previous strong support at and below those levels. However, a decision to leave rates unchanged only has enough potential for a 100 pip relief rally which will keep the EUR/USD pair within the bounds of the current EW count topping at 1.3340 area or slightly above with a possible extension into the low 1.34xx zone should the NFP data suck.

3. NFP. The "Pièce de résistance". Will it cut the mustard? At the last check, the market's expectation is for a +180K reading and for the UE rate to stay at 7.6% or drop to 7.5%. If the report meets expectations, then the dollar will definitely get a nice bid. However it will not be enough to start the wave 3 of 3 of 3 impulse I am looking for in the EUR/USD (Unless we got a rate cut from the ECB). What I would be looking for is 200K or over AND a drop to 7.5% or lower on the UE rate. That will certainly start that 3rd wave moving even if the ECB does not cut the deposit rate. On the flip side, if the numbers disappoint, then I expect the "Bad news is good for risk" mentality to fully emerge and we shall see the dollar get beaten down one or more support levels further. Even if we were to see this, I still have my doubts that the EUR/USD has the ability to break above the low 1.34xx zone.

So, in conclusion. The real key here is the NFP with extra fuel supplied by the ECB (if they cut the deposit rate) which leaves Wednesday's FOMC rate statement as insignificant as a dead flea (comparatively of course).

Obviously the above is only my take on things and should not be relied upon to make your trading decisions. I am only saying that it is what I am using. Use your own judgement and trade only according to you plan and sentiment.

As always, best regards and may the pips be with you.

PT

P.S. Here are my EW counts for H4 and Weekly charts which I still believe to be valid at this point.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,449
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:30am Jul 30, 2013 9:30am
Quoting PipsMaster23
{quote} Cheers PT and also to Mr. Scott.... I downloaded the indicator but when i try to attach it to the chart nothing happens, am i doing something wrong?
You have to allow DLL imports and external EAs as indicated in the picture below.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,450
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:31am Jul 30, 2013 9:31am
Quoting NZ Chris
anyone seen maxwell????
Yep I saw him warming up on the kiddie zip line
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,451
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:49am Jul 30, 2013 9:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
The next few days...
3330's is still on the radar. 430's too (just not clear how deep it will retrace before that - maybe with "no taper" wave).. UCHF also has plenty of room to drop till 9220's. SO far I'm willing to long EU at 3220's and short UCHF at 9340's.

UJ in the mean time could check 99.00 but ultimately its pointing to 97.20's and lower - up to 96.80/60's
69
  • #68,452
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:50am Jul 30, 2013 9:50am
Quoting NZ Chris
Well then, let's have another go at this irritating pair. In short at 3283 and 3290. 1st Target 3170 and then BEYOND......... Had to give it a go with the Stochs over 80 and all those potential reversal candles. Tight stops though. I have no trust at the moment.{image}
Quoting NZ Chris
{quote} I think it's about time the E/U followed the A/U down, down, down.
Finally............. Partial Profits taken at yesterday's low. Free ride down now..
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #68,453
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:07am Jul 30, 2013 10:07am
Quoting NZ Chris
{quote} {quote} Finally............. Partial Profits taken at yesterday's low. Free ride down now..
I don't think it's going down yet. The wedge is not done yet. Top of wedge now comes in at 3330/40 area depending on when/if it reaches it.
We have to wait for the ECB, and if the ECB does not cut, then we have to hope for a great NFP number.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,454
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:10am Jul 30, 2013 10:10am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} 3330's is still on the radar. 430's too (just not clear how deep it will retrace before that - maybe with "no taper" wave).. UCHF also has plenty of room to drop till 9220's. SO far I'm willing to long EU at 3220's and short UCHF at 9340's. UJ in the mean time could check 99.00 but ultimately its pointing to 97.20's and lower - up to 96.80/60's
I fully agree with you on the U/J needing a deeper retrace to the 95/96 area.
However, I do not believe that a move to 1.3430 is in the cards unless we get a crappy NFP.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,455
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:11am Jul 30, 2013 10:11am
EUR/GBP WEEKLY CHART
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  • #68,456
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:17am Jul 30, 2013 10:17am
Quoting davidsayli
EUR/GBP WEEKLY CHART {image}
Looking at the monthly chart, one could validly argue that the EUR/GBP just completed a massive 5 wave bull flag and is on its way to rechallenge the supply zone between 0.8835 and 0.9800.

I hope it's not the case, but when analysing the markets, we should take all possibilities into consideration.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,457
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:30am Jul 30, 2013 10:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I fully agree with you on the U/J needing a deeper retrace to the 95/96 area. However, I do not believe that a move to 1.3430 is in the cards unless we get a crappy NFP.
3430's is not confirmed yet - it will be more clear after 330's, but a HH on daily before more notable retracement would be quite logical isnt it?

But, if HH will be made it can go as high as 480's/500 in one swing.. And after retracement to 3240's (or much lower), a HH in M/Q charts at 3750's is not out of question too. Having in mind taper talks for September, maybe it has exactly a month to reach its max targets..

Today I'll try a short at 275 for 220's
69
  • #68,458
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:32am Jul 30, 2013 10:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I don't think it's going down yet. The wedge is not done yet. Top of wedge now comes in at 3330/40 area depending on when/if it reaches it. We have to wait for the ECB, and if the ECB does not cut, then we have to hope for a great NFP number.
I had that suspicion too hence take some profit at yesterday's low. If it goes up so be it. I'll go again at a better level. If it goes down I will follow the Weeeeee train.. Thanks for your observations PT. It does help.
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #68,459
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:49am Jul 30, 2013 10:49am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} 3430's is not confirmed yet - it will be more clear after 330's, but a HH on daily before more notable retracement would be quite logical isnt it? But, if HH will be made it can go as high as 480's/500 in one swing.. And after retracement to 3240's (or much lower), a HH in M/Q charts at 3750's is not out of question too. Having in mind taper talks for September, maybe it has exactly a month to reach its max targets.. Today I'll try a short at 275 for 220's
Nothing is out of the question. I'm just looking at the probabilities in the overall picture.
Regarding the question of tapering, like all other risk events, it is already partially priced in and the market will front run the event based on what it has been led to believe are the supporting indicators (Lowering unemployment and rising inflation). Therefore, the event itself (unless they taper by more than the expected 20 billion) will probably be a non-event or at most a good reason to continue the bullish dollar trend, but certainly not a catalyst. The actual catalyst is the data before the event.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,460
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:51am Jul 30, 2013 10:51am
Quoting NZ Chris
{quote} I had that suspicion too hence take some profit at yesterday's low. If it goes up so be it. I'll go again at a better level. If it goes down I will follow the Weeeeee train.. Thanks for your observations PT. It does help.
You're welcome my Kiwi friend. We all try to help each other here.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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