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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,301
  • Jul 29, 2013 9:46am Jul 29, 2013 9:46am
the longer term trend for the pair is still up. Process of forming bullish flag inside of an 3 white solider formation. Fundamental picture for USD is much better than JPY. The fed is more likely to scale back on the stimulus while the BOJ will continue to remain supportive of stimulus programs to aid the Japanese economy. We may be looking at 110 if the bullish flag holds.
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Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #35,302
  • Jul 29, 2013 10:35am Jul 29, 2013 10:35am
jpy pairs may take another leg lower in next hours. i have seen afternoon 400 pips moves. nothing will surprise me about yen
  • #35,303
  • Jul 29, 2013 11:17am Jul 29, 2013 11:17am
Quoting OMGtrader
the longer term trend for the pair is still up. Process of forming bullish flag inside of an 3 white solider formation. Fundamental picture for USD is much better than JPY. The fed is more likely to scale back on the stimulus while the BOJ will continue to remain supportive of stimulus programs to aid the Japanese economy. We may be looking at 110 if the bullish flag holds. {image}
Your blue line supports my H&S possibility, neckline at 94.0
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  • #35,304
  • Jul 29, 2013 1:12pm Jul 29, 2013 1:12pm
looking for good long opportunity,
thinking of an entry around 96.20

any ideas?

(i'll probably delay an entry until the fed news)
  • #35,305
  • Jul 29, 2013 2:16pm Jul 29, 2013 2:16pm
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  • #35,306
  • Jul 29, 2013 4:20pm Jul 29, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting openyoureyes
looking for good long opportunity, thinking of an entry around 96.20 any ideas? (i'll probably delay an entry until the fed news)
If your typical trade life is measured in days you are probably right to wait until the momentous news releases later this week.
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  • #35,307
  • Jul 29, 2013 4:58pm Jul 29, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} If your typical trade life is measured in days you are probably right to wait until the momentous news releases later this week.
yes, I normally hold positions for 8 hours / 1 day

don't carry over weekends...
don't trade on monday / fridays =)
etc.
  • #35,308
  • Jul 29, 2013 7:17pm Jul 29, 2013 7:17pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} this DFT, which actually should have been theDHT We had a discussion about a month ago, when everyone (including me) was calling UJ up.
I dont know where he is.

My pending order is buy at 97.70 now.
  • #35,309
  • Jul 29, 2013 8:01pm Jul 29, 2013 8:01pm
Quoting iahmedz
{quote} I dont know where he is. My pending order is buy at 97.70 now.
I'm expecting lower lows over the next 12 hours, we just got anothing rejection from the top. I don't think it'll hold this next retest of the low.

Just in case it does, my stops will be moved to b/e once we get down to 97.7
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,310
  • Jul 29, 2013 8:13pm Jul 29, 2013 8:13pm
Quoting livethedream
{quote} I'm expecting lower lows over the next 12 hours, we just got anothing rejection from the top. I don't think it'll hold this next retest of the low. Just in case it does, my stops will be moved to b/e once we get down to 97.7
Still experiencing consolidation around 98 zone.. Could be forming bear flag to reach lower TL of triangle on higher TF
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #35,311
  • Jul 29, 2013 8:28pm Jul 29, 2013 8:28pm
Quoting John Gray
{quote}Could be forming bear flag to reach lower TL of triangle on higher TF
This is very possible.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,312
  • Jul 29, 2013 9:34pm Jul 29, 2013 9:34pm
Oanda Open Positions Ratio for USD/JPY

Heavily lopsided.
Attached Image
  • #35,313
  • Jul 30, 2013 1:51am Jul 30, 2013 1:51am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Oanda Open Positions Ratio for USD/JPY Heavily lopsided. {image}
but all these long positions are from retailers
banks, funds, e.t.c always move the market strong
not the retailers
i will try a small short to TP 97.9
then i will see
  • #35,314
  • Jul 30, 2013 4:00am Jul 30, 2013 4:00am
Quoting heraclitus
{quote} but all these long positions are from retailers banks, funds, e.t.c always move the market strong not the retailers i will try a small short to TP 97.9 then i will see
I agree but it does seem in line with myfxbook outlook. I definitely check them as far as I know they don't have any opposing interest and they show averaged stats on all their users profit/loss. Its all bee. Momostly profit from what I've seen
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #35,315
  • Jul 30, 2013 4:13am Jul 30, 2013 4:13am
USDJPY could not sustain the breakout of 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level and fell back to 98 levels. It is expected to test sub 97 levels.
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  • #35,316
  • Jul 30, 2013 5:04am Jul 30, 2013 5:04am
Quoting heraclitus
{quote} but all these long positions are from retailers banks, funds, e.t.c always move the market strong not the retailers i will try a small short to TP 97.9 then i will see
There is a school of thought which says that one could profitably trade the opposite of the COT data.
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  • #35,317
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:25am Jul 30, 2013 9:25am
Hi all im a newbie here,
just wanna ask about this: USD CB consumer confidence are down slightly, but why USD not weaken to Yen..?
and what price do you think USD/JPY will be close this day, near high or near low..
  • #35,318
  • Edited 11:50am Jul 30, 2013 10:42am | Edited 11:50am
Quoting ruhut
Hi all im a newbie here, just wanna ask about this: USD CB consumer confidence are down slightly, but why USD not weaken to Yen..? and what price do you think USD/JPY will be close this day, near high or near low..
technically speaking we have to go north to 99 (h4 50 fibonacci retracement)
but yen looks very strong last 10 days after abe wins elections
and all japan economy data improves
long term (until the end of the year)
im STRONGLY BEARISH

if traders (big boys especially)
feel that yen is safe heaven again
all of them will buy it massively
im not expecting BOJ to make a
strong intervention
before 90-93 area

today im waiting
and if break 98.3 i ll go long
if break 97.7 i ll go short (with more volume)
  • #35,319
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:45am Jul 30, 2013 11:45am
Quoting heraclitus
....im not expecting BOJ to make a strong intervention before 90-93 area....
I'm not expecting the BoJ to make any kind of intervention. When price sinks to the 90 area Kuroda will start talking and weaken the Yen.
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  • #35,320
  • Jul 30, 2013 12:32pm Jul 30, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting heraclitus
{quote} technically speaking we have to go north to 99 (h4 50 fibonacci retracement) but yen looks very strong last 10 days after abe wins elections and all japan economy data improves long term (until the end of the year) im STRONGLY BEARISH if traders (big boys especially) feel that yen is safe heaven again all of them will buy it massively im not expecting BOJ to make a strong intervention before 90-93 area today im waiting and if break 98.3 i ll go long if break 97.7 i ll go short (with more volume)
after election yen got weak . and from Thursday it got strength without any news to support it.
even kuroda speech was dovish
I am really wonder why yen is strong?!
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